NFL 2026
Live Super Bowl, AFC and NFC odds from the Squawka Signal model against the market, power rankings for all 32 teams, and Week 9 games with a model pick on each.
Week 9 games
NFL power rankings
Super Bowl odds →| # | Team | Squawka Rating | Make Playoffs | Win Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1– |  Buffalo Bills | 99 | 100% | 22.4% |
| 2– |  Denver Broncos | 99 | 98% | 10.6% |
| 3▲1 |  Jacksonville Jaguars | 99 | 99% | 11.5% |
| 4▼1 |  Minnesota Vikings | 95 | 97% | 13.7% |
| 5– |  New England Patriots | 89 | 87% | 3.8% |
| 6– |  Chicago Bears | 87 | 84% | 6.1% |
| 7– |  San Francisco 49ers | 87 | 96% | 9.8% |
| 8– |  Los Angeles Rams | 85 | 47% | 2.5% |
| 9– |  Detroit Lions | 84 | 85% | 5.7% |
| 10– |  Cincinnati Bengals | 84 | 95% | 3.9% |
| 11– |  Seattle Seahawks | 81 | 44% | 1.9% |
| 12– |  Pittsburgh Steelers | 81 | 88% | 2.8% |
| 13– |  Kansas City Chiefs | 78 | 87% | 2.0% |
| 14– |  Green Bay Packers | 73 | 41% | 1.3% |
| 15▲1 |  Houston Texans | 61 | 11% | 0.1% |
| 16▼1 |  Baltimore Ravens | 60 | 12% | 0.1% |
| 17– |  Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 57 | 51% | 0.6% |
| 18– |  New York Giants | 53 | 79% | 0.8% |
| 19– |  Dallas Cowboys | 52 | 16% | 0.2% |
| 20– |  Atlanta Falcons | 46 | 22% | 0.1% |
| 21– |  Philadelphia Eagles | 45 | 4% | 0.0% |
| 22– |  Washington Commanders | 41 | 3% | 0.0% |
| 23– |  Los Angeles Chargers | 38 | 0% | 0.0% |
| 24– |  Las Vegas Raiders | 37 | 7% | 0.0% |
| 25– |  New Orleans Saints | 36 | 13% | 0.0% |
| 26– |  Carolina Panthers | 35 | 16% | 0.0% |
| 27– |  Indianapolis Colts | 35 | 0% | 0.0% |
| 28– |  Arizona Cardinals | 29 | 1% | 0.0% |
| 29– |  Cleveland Browns | 28 | 15% | 0.0% |
| 30– |  Miami Dolphins | 22 | 0% | 0.0% |
| 31– |  New York Jets | 14 | 0% | 0.0% |
| 32– |  Tennessee Titans | 1 | 0% | 0.0% |
Squawka Rating is each team’s strength on a 0–100 scale from the Squawka Signal model. The ▲/▼ beside each rank shows how far a team has moved since last week. Playoff and Super Bowl odds come from tens of thousands of season simulations, updated as games are played.
Super Bowl race
All 32 →| # | Team | Signal | Market | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Bills | 22.4% | 13% | ▲ Value |
| 2 | Minnesota Vikings | 13.7% | 3% | ▲ Value |
| 3 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 11.5% | 10% | ▬ Fair |
| 4 | Denver Broncos | 10.6% | 4% | ▲ Value |
| 5 | San Francisco 49ers | 9.8% | 14% | ▼ Overpriced |
| 6 | Chicago Bears | 6.1% | 12% | ▼ Overpriced |
| 7 | Detroit Lions | 5.7% | 4% | ▬ Fair |
| 8 | Cincinnati Bengals | 3.9% | 5% | ▬ Fair |
Our model probability vs the de-vigged Kalshi/Polymarket price. Super Bowl · AFC · NFC full model-vs-market tables.
NFL 2026 season format
The NFL regular season runs 18 weeks from September, each of the 32 teams playing 17 games across eight divisions. The top seven in each conference reach the playoffs — four division winners and three wild cards — and the bracket runs down to Super Bowl LXI, at a neutral site in February 2027.
NFL FAQs
The 2026 regular season kicks off in September 2026 and runs 18 weeks, with the playoffs in January and Super Bowl LXI in February 2027.
Seven teams from each conference qualify — four division winners and three wild cards. The top seed gets a bye; the bracket then runs to the conference championships and the Super Bowl.
A 0–100 strength score for each team from the Squawka Signal model, combining team power ratings with a quarterback adjustment. See the methodology.
NFL odds this week
Lines for the coming week post within hours of Sunday’s final whistle. Books hang openers Sunday night or Monday, reprice as injury reports firm up Wednesday through Friday, and settle by the weekend. Quarterback news moves numbers more than everything else combined. During the season this section carries the full slate with current spreads, totals and moneylines. Whatever you see quoted anywhere on this page is a snapshot at the time of writing; lines move constantly.
One habit worth building before Week 1: hold accounts at more than one book. The same game is priced slightly differently across sportsbooks, and over a season those half-point and five-cent differences compound into real money. One account is a price-taker. Three accounts is a market.
Where NFL betting is legal in the US
The short version: about 30 states plus DC license online sportsbooks, and if you are in one of them you can open an account and bet this afternoon. The biggest regulated markets are New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois and Massachusetts, with Arizona, Colorado, Virginia, Maryland, Tennessee, Louisiana, Kentucky, North Carolina and most of the Northeast alongside them. Missouri joined most recently. Our state explainers cover the rules, books and quirks of each market.
| How you can bet | Where that applies |
|---|---|
| Online sportsbooks, full markets | Around 30 states and DC, including NY, NJ, PA, OH, MI, IL, MA, AZ, CO, VA, MD, TN, LA, KY, NC and MO |
| Retail sportsbooks only (casino locations) | A small group, including South Dakota, Wisconsin and New Mexico |
| Online through one designated operator | A few states run a single-operator model rather than an open market, Florida among them |
| No legal sports betting yet | California, Texas, Georgia, Minnesota, Utah, Alabama, Oklahoma and a handful of others |
Statuses move; this table reflects the map at the time of writing, and the individual state explainers stay current on the details.
Then there are the holdouts, and they are not small ones. California, Texas and Georgia, home to about a quarter of NFL fandom between them, have no legal online sports betting. If that is you, the regulated options are prediction markets and sweepstakes-model operators rather than conventional sportsbooks, and the difference matters; the next section covers both.
One rule travels everywhere: regulated apps verify your location at bet time. You bet where you are standing, not where you live.
No sportsbook in your state? Prediction markets and sweepstakes
Two products fill the gap in the holdout states, and they are not the same thing. Prediction markets like Kalshi are federally regulated exchanges where you trade event contracts on game outcomes; prices behave like odds, but you are trading against other users rather than betting against a book, and the products are available in most states regardless of sports betting law. Sweepstakes operators run a dual-currency model that works in most of the country under sweepstakes law rather than gambling law. Both are real, regulated routes, and both come with their own fine print. Our prediction markets guide explains how event contracts work, our Kalshi vs Polymarket breakdown compares the two big exchanges, and our sweepstakes casinos guide covers that model’s rules.
NFL betting markets at a glance
Six markets cover almost every NFL bet placed. One line each here; the practical how-to lives in our beginner guide once the season nears.
| Market | What it is | Worth knowing |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pick the winner, nothing else | The right first bet; the price carries the mismatch |
| Point spread | Beat the book’s margin, not just win | The NFL’s signature market; usually -110 both sides |
| Totals (over/under) | Combined points, over or under the number | Weather and pace move these more than names do |
| Player and game props | Side markets on players and events | The fastest-growing segment; menus vary wildly by book |
| Parlays | Chained bets, multiplied odds and risk | Heavily promoted because margins are the widest in the building |
| Futures | Season-long: Super Bowl, divisions, win totals, MVP | Best prices exist before anyone is sure of anything |
How NFL odds are priced
American odds run on a simple pair of rules. A negative number shows what you risk to win $100: at -110, you stake $110 to win $100. A positive number shows what $100 wins: at +150, a $100 bet returns $150 in profit. The standard spread price is -110 on both sides, and the gap between those two -110s is the book’s cut.
The football-specific knowledge worth having early is the key numbers. NFL games land on a final margin of exactly 3 more than any other number, with 7 close behind, because that is how field goals and converted touchdowns score. A spread moving across 3 or 7 changes real win probability more than any other single point, which is why the market defends those numbers so hard.
Here is a real-shaped Sunday line, read aloud. Chiefs -3.5 (-110), Broncos +3.5 (-110), total 44.5: Kansas City favored by three and a half, either side of the spread costs $110 to win $100, and the combined score is priced around 44 or 45 points. The moneyline on the same game might read Chiefs -180, Broncos +155. No points involved there, just the winner.
The NFL season: key dates
| When | What |
|---|---|
| Early August | Preseason; futures reprice on camp news |
| 9 September 2026 | Season kickoff, a Wednesday night: Seahawks and Patriots replay the Super Bowl |
| 13 September 2026 | Week 1 Sunday slate; season-long markets tighten from here |
| Late November | Thanksgiving triple-header |
| 10 January 2027 | Week 18 wraps; resting starters wrecks lines |
| From 16 January 2027 | Playoffs, 14 teams, single elimination |
| 14 February 2027 | Super Bowl LXI, the biggest betting day of the year |
Sunday windows open at 1:00 p.m. ET with late games at 4:05 and 4:25 p.m. ET, Sunday Night Football at 8:20 p.m. ET, and Thursday and Monday night games around 8:15 p.m. ET.
How the game is played, in one minute
An offense gets four downs to gain ten yards; make it and the count resets, fall short and the ball changes hands, which is why fourth down usually means a punt. Touchdowns score six plus a kicked extra point for seven, or a two-point try. Field goals score three. Those values are the entire reason 3 and 7 rule the spread market.
Games run four 15-minute quarters across about three hours of real time, and the clock stops constantly: incompletions, out-of-bounds plays, the two-minute warnings, reviews. A regular-season game that ends level goes to one 10-minute overtime where both teams get the ball under the rules rewritten in 2025; it can still finish tied, which refunds a two-way moneyline at most books, and overtime points count toward the total. Playoff games play on until someone wins. College football settles things differently, with alternating possessions from the 25-yard line, so do not let Saturday habits price your Sunday bets. The full beginner’s guide to how the NFL works, overtime rules included, goes much deeper.
Watching the NFL, and betting while you do
Sunday afternoon games split between CBS and FOX by conference, Sunday night belongs to NBC, Monday night to ESPN and ABC, and Thursday night streams on Prime Video. Out-of-market Sunday games live on NFL Sunday Ticket through YouTube. Every regulated sportsbook runs live in-game markets during broadcasts, and a few stream games inside the app for account holders. Live betting rewards the viewer who notices things before the algorithm reprices them; it punishes everyone else, so treat in-game markets as a discipline of their own.
The best sportsbooks for NFL betting
Every major regulated book prices the NFL hard, but they are not interchangeable: streaming, prop depth, same game parlay tools and payout speed vary a lot. Our full reviews cover BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars and bet365, and the wider sportsbooks hub ranks everything we rate. Our ranking of the best NFL betting sites scores each book on its football product specifically.
How NFL betting promos actually work
US books compete loudly on welcome offers, and the mechanics matter more than the headline number. Most offers pay out in bonus bets rather than withdrawable cash: win with a bonus bet and you keep the winnings but not the stake. First-bet offers refund a losing opening wager in bonus bets, which is insurance, not free money. Profit boosts sweeten the odds on a single bet and are usually the cleanest value on the menu. Read the playthrough terms before you deposit, compare offers across two or three books rather than taking the first one advertised at you, and remember the promo exists because the lifetime math favors the house.
NFL picks and predictions
Weekly picks for the 2026 season land in September: every game called straight up and against the spread, best bets flagged, reasoning written out, record published. Straight up answers who wins; against the spread answers who beats the number, and a team can win the game while losing you the bet. Our weekly coverage gives both, because they serve different bets. Until then, the honest advice fits in a sentence: bet less than feels exciting, and never chase a bad Sunday into Monday night.
NFL futures and season-long markets
Futures are where books hold their biggest margins and where the best prices exist before anyone is sure of anything. Super Bowl winner is the headline market, but the deeper menu is where value hides: division winners, team win totals priced as overs and unders, and the awards markets led by MVP, where a quarterback on a winning team is nearly always the profile that cashes. Odds shorten fast on winners and drift on losers, so timing matters more here than in any weekly market. Our NFL futures guide carries the full menu, with maintained odds boards for win totals and Coach of the Year.
Betting the NFL responsibly
The legal age is 21 in most states, 18 in a few. Set deposit limits inside the app before the season starts, not after a bad week. Every regulated book carries limit and self-exclusion tools, and if betting stops being entertainment, help is free: call or text 1-800-MY-RESET or 1-800-GAMBLER. More resources are on our gambling awareness page.
NFL betting FAQ
In about 30 states plus DC, yes, through licensed online sportsbooks. A few states are retail-only, and California, Texas and Georgia have no legal sports betting at all yet. The state explainers linked above cover each market’s specifics.
Risk $110 to win $100. It is the standard price on point spreads and totals, and the ten-dollar difference is the book’s margin.
Not through a licensed sportsbook. Regulated prediction markets and sweepstakes-model operators are the compliant alternatives there, and they work differently enough that reading up first is worth it.
Sundays at 1:00 p.m. ET, 4:05 or 4:25 p.m. ET, and 8:20 p.m. ET, with Thursday and Monday night games around 8:15 p.m. ET. West Coast bettors, subtract three hours.
Yes. Gambling winnings are taxable income federally, books issue tax forms above certain thresholds, and several states tax them too. Keep records, and treat this as general information rather than tax advice.
The market that levels a mismatch: the favorite must win by more than the number, the underdog covers by staying within it or winning outright. A -6.5 favorite has to win by 7.
It depends what you bet. Our reviews score each book on streaming, props, parlays and payouts; BetMGM currently rates highest overall, and the right answer for a props bettor differs from a streamer’s.
21+ in most states (18+ in some) | Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET or 1-800-GAMBLER | Odds referenced at time of writing and subject to change.