Premier League 2026-27 Relegation Odds: Who Will Go Down?

The three promoted clubs — Coventry City, Hull City and Ipswich Town — start the 2026-27 season where the market almost always puts them: at the front of the relegation queue.

Burnley, West Ham and Wolves went down last season; Coventry, Hull and Ipswich come up to replace them. Recent history is unkind to the promoted sides — more often than not at least two of the three go straight back — and that is where the relegation market will open when it does.

Our Squawka Signal survival model is now live for 2026-27 — a data-led relegation probability for every club, set against the live market. Pre-season it blends recent form with the promoted sides’ Championship level; it sharpens as games are played. Follow the fight on the Premier League hub and the live table.

Squawka Signal · Model vs Market

Premier League 2026-27 Relegation — Squawka Signal

Our model’s relegation probability for every club against the live Kalshi market. Pre-season it blends five seasons of form with the promoted clubs’ Championship level, and sharpens as results land. Tap any club for its Squawka Rating and survival odds.

▲Signal sees more danger than the market▼Signal sees less danger · safer▬In line

1Hull CitySquawka61.7%Market63%▬ In line▾

Squawka Rating28

Drop risk61.7%

Survival38.3%

Kalshi market63%Trade

2Ipswich TownSquawka42.5%Market45%▬ In line▾

Squawka Rating34

Drop risk42.5%

Survival57.5%

Kalshi market45%Trade

3Coventry CitySquawka41.5%Market45%▼ Safer▾

Squawka Rating34

Drop risk41.5%

Survival58.5%

Kalshi market45%Trade

4Leeds UnitedSquawka16.2%Market16%▬ In line▾

Squawka Rating46

Drop risk16.2%

Survival83.8%

Kalshi market16%Trade

5SunderlandSquawka16.1%Market26%▼ Safer▾

Squawka Rating46

Drop risk16.1%

Survival83.9%

Kalshi market26%Trade

6EvertonSquawka15.7%Market8%▲ More danger▾

Squawka Rating46

Drop risk15.7%

Survival84.3%

Kalshi market8%Trade

7Crystal PalaceSquawka14.6%Market14%▬ In line▾

Squawka Rating47

Drop risk14.6%

Survival85.4%

Kalshi market14%Trade

8FulhamSquawka13.7%Market16%▬ In line▾

Squawka Rating47

Drop risk13.7%

Survival86.3%

Kalshi market16%Trade

9Nottingham ForestSquawka12.5%Market13%▬ In line▾

Squawka Rating48

Drop risk12.5%

Survival87.5%

Kalshi market13%Trade

10Tottenham HotspurSquawka11.9%Market4%▲ More danger▾

Squawka Rating48

Drop risk11.9%

Survival88.1%

Kalshi market4%Trade

11AFC BournemouthSquawka9.8%Market7%▬ In line▾

Squawka Rating50

Drop risk9.8%

Survival90.2%

Kalshi market7%Trade

12BrentfordSquawka9.2%Market8%▬ In line▾

Squawka Rating51

Drop risk9.2%

Survival90.8%

Kalshi market8%Trade

13Manchester UnitedSquawka7.4%Market3%▲ More danger▾

Squawka Rating53

Drop risk7.4%

Survival92.6%

Kalshi market3%Trade

14Aston VillaSquawka7.2%Market4%▲ More danger▾

Squawka Rating53

Drop risk7.2%

Survival92.8%

Kalshi market4%Trade

15Brighton & Hove AlbionSquawka7.0%Market5%▬ In line▾

Squawka Rating53

Drop risk7.0%

Survival93.0%

Kalshi market5%Trade

16Newcastle UnitedSquawka5.8%Market11%▼ Safer▾

Squawka Rating54

Drop risk5.8%

Survival94.2%

Kalshi market11%Trade

17ChelseaSquawka5.1%Market2%▲ More danger▾

Squawka Rating55

Drop risk5.1%

Survival94.9%

Kalshi market2%Trade

18LiverpoolSquawka1.8%Market2%▬ In line▾

Squawka Rating63

Drop risk1.8%

Survival98.2%

Kalshi market2%Trade

19ArsenalSquawka0.3%Market4%▼ Safer▾

Squawka Rating72

Drop risk0.3%

Survival99.7%

Kalshi market4%Trade

20Manchester CitySquawka0.2%Market6%▼ Safer▾

Squawka Rating71

Drop risk0.2%

Survival99.8%

Kalshi market6%Trade

Trade the relegation market on Kalshi

Squawka Rating = each club’s strength on a 0–100 scale. Model % = drop probability across 20,000 season simulations, updated as games are played. The verdict is how our model’s risk reads against the price: more danger = we make them likelier to go down than the market, safer = less likely. For analysis and entertainment — not financial advice. 21+ where applicable; eligibility varies by US state. Read our Kalshi review and the Signal methodology.

Premier League 2026-27 relegation contenders

Squawka Signal’s three most likely to go down are Hull City, Ipswich Town and Coventry City — Hull City the clearest risk on 62%. These are the model’s numbers, a data-led survival read from 20,000 season simulations, and they move after every round.

Where the model splits from the market: it sees more danger than the market around Tottenham Hotspur and Everton, and reads Sunderland and Manchester City as safer than their price — the disagreements are the point of reading Signal alongside the odds. As the 2026-27 season is played, those calls firm up or fade on the evidence.

Other Premier League 2026-27 markets

Beyond the drop, see our Premier League title odds and Golden Boot odds, plus the top-scorer charts. The hub tracks the table and fixtures.