Buffalo have scored 27 touchdowns, more than any team in the NFL. Minnesota have conceded nine, fewer than any team in the NFL. Our Bills vs Vikings prediction closes Week 9 with the best matchup of the week.
Both teams are 6-1. The Buffalo Bills are +52 and the Minnesota Vikings +47, and the gap between them is almost entirely which end of the field they work at.
Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings
Buffalo BillsSquawka55%Market64%▼ Slight lay
Minnesota VikingsSquawka45%Market36%▲ ValueSquawka Signal is our model’s read against devigged market prices, updated after every result — not betting advice. How the NFL Signal works. 21+. Play responsibly. Full T&Cs & geo-restrictions apply: Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX.
Bills vs Vikings: our editor’s props
Two calls from our editor, to read next to Signal’s live numbers.
AT Our props
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Bills vs Vikings: 2026 form so far
The best attack in the league against the best defense in it, at 6-1 apiece. The table sets each attack against what the opposite defense has actually allowed.
Bills attack against the Vikings defense
| Per game | Bills offense | Vikings allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 244.7 | 154.9 |
| Rushing yards | 148.4 | 116.7 |
| Yards per carry | 4.8 | 4.5 |
| Passer rating | 101.1 | 64.9 |
| Touchdowns | 3.9 | 1.3 |
| Third-down conversion | 44.2% | 29.7% |
| Red-zone conversion | 70.0% | 25.0% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.9 | 3.6 |
Vikings attack against the Bills defense
| Per game | Vikings offense | Bills allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 165.6 | 254.7 |
| Rushing yards | 113.9 | 97.4 |
| Yards per carry | 4.0 | 3.9 |
| Passer rating | 90.6 | 96.3 |
| Touchdowns | 1.7 | 3.1 |
| Third-down conversion | 36.0% | 41.9% |
| Red-zone conversion | 56.2% | 65.5% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 3.0 | 2.1 |
Minnesota allow a 64.9 opponent passer rating and 25.0% in the red zone. Both are the best marks in the NFL and neither is close.
Bills vs Vikings quarterback matchup
Josh Allen has 11 touchdown passes to five interceptions at 101.1. Kyler Murray has five to three at 86.6 from six starts.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | Josh Allen | 21/34, 289 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 96.3 rtg | 135/205, 1793 yds, 11 TD, 5 INT, 101.1 rtg (7 games) |
| Vikings | Kyler Murray | 17/29, 210 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 89.7 rtg | 100/154, 1022 yds, 5 TD, 3 INT, 86.6 rtg (6 games) |
Bills vs Vikings injury report and team news
Buffalo have scored 27 touchdowns, more than any team in the NFL.
Minnesota have conceded nine touchdowns, fewer than any team in the NFL.
Minnesota have 25 sacks, second only to Pittsburgh, and have taken 39 penalties — the fewest in the league.
Buffalo BillsMinnesota VikingsThe best attack in football against the best defense
Twenty-seven touchdowns for Buffalo, nine conceded by Minnesota. Each is the league-leading figure and they meet on Monday night.
Minnesota’s wider numbers are startling: a 64.9 opponent rating and 25.0% allowed in the red zone, both the best in the NFL by a margin.
What works for Buffalo is that the Vikings cannot score. Twelve touchdowns and 1,159 passing yards are both second-lowest in the league.
Players to watch
- Josh Allen (BUF, QB): 1,793 passing yards and 11 touchdowns at 101.1.
- James Cook III (BUF, RB): Fronts a ground game with 1,039 yards at 4.79 a carry.
- Kyler Murray (MIN, QB): Five touchdown passes at an 86.6 rating.
- Justin Jefferson (MIN, WR): The first read in a passing game that throws sparingly.
How to watch Bills vs Vikings
Kickoff is 8:15 PM ET on Monday, November 9 at U.S. Bank Stadium, which is 7:15 PM CT and 5:15 PM PT. ABC and ESPN have the national broadcast.
| Detail | Bills vs Vikings |
|---|---|
| Date | Monday, November 9, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 PM ET / 7:15 PM CT / 5:15 PM PT |
| Venue | U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN |
| TV | ABC/ESPN |
| Live stream | NFL+ / ESPN |
| Week | Week 9, 2026 NFL season |
Bills vs Vikings prediction and score projection
Buffalo win 27-24. Minnesota’s defense will make this uncomfortable, but 12 touchdowns in seven games is not enough to beat the highest-scoring team in the league.
Signal’s live probability for this game updates through to kickoff.
Every Week 9 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9:15 PM | Jaguars @ Ravens | Jaguars 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 10:30 AM | Bengals @ Falcons | Bengals 27-17 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Browns @ Saints | Saints 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Cowboys @ Colts | Cowboys 26-20 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Broncos @ Panthers | Broncos 26-16 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Lions @ Dolphins | Lions 30-17 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Rams @ Commanders | Rams 27-17 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Giants @ Eagles | Giants 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Jets @ Chiefs | Chiefs 30-13 | Read |
| Sun 5:05 PM | Texans @ Chargers | Texans 23-17 | Read |
| Sun 5:25 PM | Cardinals @ Seahawks | Seahawks 30-16 | Read |
| Sun 5:25 PM | Packers @ Patriots | Patriots 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 5:25 PM | Raiders @ 49ers | 49ers 30-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:20 PM | Buccaneers @ Bears | Bears 27-20 | Read |
| Mon 9:15 PM | Bills @ Vikings | Bills 27-24 | You are here |
You can find NFL predictions for the round alongside our NFL hub. The outright markets are priced in our Super Bowl board. For the player side of this game, see player prop betting.
Bills vs Vikings FAQ
Buffalo, narrowly. Our Signal model has the Bills as slight favorites and the live number is in the Signal card on this page. Both teams are 6-1.
8:15 PM ET on Monday, November 9 at U.S. Bank Stadium, which is 7:15 PM CT and 5:15 PM PT.
Buffalo, with 27 — more than any team in the NFL.
Minnesota, with nine in seven games.
21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Signal probabilities and odds approximate at time of writing and subject to change