Atlanta Falcons Odds & Predictions
Squawka Signal’s projected line and win probability for every Falcons game this season, plus NFC South standings and Super Bowl odds.
Falcons 2026 outlook
| Market | Squawka | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons Super Bowl oddsFull odds | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.8% | -0.8 | Fair |
| Falcons NFC Championship oddsFull odds | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | -1.2 | Fair |
| Falcons NFC South odds | 16.0% | Signal read | |||
vs Moneyline
Against the spread
Signal read
Strong laySquawka Signal is a 538-lineage Elo model with a 10,000-run Monte Carlo season simulation. Market prices are de-vigged to fair probability. Model numbers are a view, not a guarantee. 21+. Play responsibly.
NFC South standings and division odds
Division and playoff odds are the model’s, from a 10,000-run season simulation.
| Team | Record | Win NFC South | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
 Carolina Panthers | 3-2 | 58.9% | 60.7% |
 New Orleans Saints | 2-4 | 16.8% | 18.5% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 2-4 | 16.0% | 17.6% |
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1-5 | 8.3% | 8.8% |
Atlanta Falcons schedule, results and lines
Every game with the model’s win probability and projected line, against the market spread where it’s priced.
Falcons injury report
Out long-term
| Player | Pos | Status |
|---|---|---|
| A.J. Terrell Jr. | CB | IR |
| Da'Shawn Hand | DT | IR |
| JD Bertrand | LB | IR |
| Yasir Abdullah | LB | IR |
| Jalon Walker | OLB | IR |
| Cameron Williams | OT | IR |
| Trey Sermon | RB | IR |
| Beaux Collins | WR | IR |
| Storm Norton | OL | PUP |
| DeAngelo Malone | OLB | PUP |
| James Pearce Jr. | DE | Susp |
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81 players · tap to open
Offense 38
| # | Player | Pos | Exp | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Andy Dalton | QB | 16 | TCU |
| 9 | Michael Penix Jr. | QB | 3 | Washington |
| 18 | Jack Strand | QB | Minnesota State Moorhead | |
| 1 | Tua Tagovailoa | QB | 7 | Alabama |
| 25 | Khalil Herbert | RB | 6 | Virginia Tech |
| 15 | Brian Robinson Jr. | RB | 5 | Alabama |
| 38 | Jam Miller | RB | Alabama | |
| 7 | Bijan Robinson | RB | 4 | Texas |
| 44 | Trey Sermon | RB | 5 | Ohio State |
| 19 | Chris Blair | WR | 2 | Alcorn State |
| 17 | Zachariah Branch | WR | Georgia | |
| 88 | Beaux Collins | WR | 2 | Notre Dame |
| 4 | Jahan Dotson | WR | 5 | Penn State |
| 80 | Dylan Drummond | WR | 2 | Eastern Michigan |
| 86 | Vinny Anthony II | WR | Wisconsin | |
| 82 | Juice Wells Jr. | WR | 1 | Ole Miss |
| 5 | Drake London | WR | 5 | USC |
| 14 | Olamide Zaccheaus | WR | 8 | Virginia |
| 81 | Austin Hooper | TE | 11 | Stanford |
| 87 | Nick Muse | TE | 3 | South Carolina |
| 8 | Kyle Pitts Sr. | TE | 5 | Florida |
| 84 | Jack Velling | TE | Michigan State | |
| 89 | Charlie Woerner | TE | 7 | Georgia |
| 61 | Kam Dewberry | G | Alabama | |
| 63 | Chris Lindstrom | G | 8 | Boston College |
| 76 | Riley Mahlman | OT | Wisconsin | |
| 71 | Jawaan Taylor | OT | 8 | Florida |
| 73 | Cameron Williams | OT | 2 | Texas |
| 70 | Jake Matthews | T | 13 | Texas A&M |
| 75 | Ethan Onianwa | T | Ohio State | |
| 65 | Matthew Bergeron | OL | 4 | Syracuse |
| 68 | Kyle Hinton | OL | 4 | Washburn |
| 72 | Michael Jerrell | OL | 3 | Findlay |
| 62 | Corey Levin | OL | 8 | Chattanooga |
| 64 | Ryan Neuzil | OL | 5 | Appalachian State |
| 77 | Storm Norton | OL | 7 | Toledo |
| 74 | Colby Sorsdal | OL | 4 | William & Mary |
| 67 | Josh Thompson | OL | LSU |
Defense 40
| # | Player | Pos | Exp | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | Samson Ebukam | DE | 10 | Eastern Washington |
| 91 | Drake Jackson | DE | 4 | USC |
| 27 | James Pearce Jr. | DE | 2 | Tennessee |
| 55 | Za'Darius Smith | DE | 11 | Kentucky |
| 99 | Cameron Thomas | DE | 5 | San Diego State |
| 90 | Da'Shawn Hand | DT | 9 | Alabama |
| 94 | LaCale London | DT | 3 | Western Illinois |
| 93 | Zacch Pickens | DT | 3 | South Carolina |
| 95 | Gervon Dexter Sr. | DT | 4 | Florida |
| 98 | Anterio Thompson | DT | Washington | |
| 54 | Brandon Dorlus | DL | 3 | Oregon |
| 96 | Zach Harrison | DL | 4 | Ohio State |
| 92 | Maason Smith | DL | 3 | LSU |
| 22 | Yasir Abdullah | LB | 4 | Louisville |
| 40 | JD Bertrand | LB | 3 | Notre Dame |
| 53 | Kendal Daniels | LB | Oklahoma | |
| 0 | Divine Deablo | LB | 6 | Virginia Tech |
| 45 | Christian Harris | LB | 5 | Alabama |
| 41 | Brian Asamoah II | LB | 4 | Oklahoma |
| 51 | Jared Ivey | LB | 2 | Ole Miss |
| 56 | Harold Perkins Jr. | LB | LSU | |
| 43 | TJ Quinn | LB | Louisville | |
| 46 | Josh Woods | LB | 7 | Maryland |
| 50 | DeAngelo Malone | OLB | 5 | Western Kentucky |
| Charles Snowden | OLB | 3 | Virginia | |
| 11 | Jalon Walker | OLB | 2 | Georgia |
| 26 | C.J. Henderson | CB | 6 | Florida |
| 30 | Darnay Holmes | CB | 7 | UCLA |
| 21 | Mike Hughes | CB | 9 | UCF |
| 36 | Malcolm DeWalt IV | CB | Akron | |
| 24 | A.J. Terrell Jr. | CB | 7 | Clemson |
| 33 | Billy Bowman Jr. | CB | 2 | Oklahoma |
| 28 | Mike Ford Jr. | CB | 9 | Southeast Missouri State |
| 37 | Robert Longerbeam | CB | 2 | Rutgers |
| 12 | Avieon Terrell | CB | Clemson | |
| 23 | DeMarcco Hellams | SAF | 4 | Alabama |
| 3 | Jessie Bates III | SAF | 9 | Wake Forest |
| 34 | Jammie Robinson | SAF | 4 | Florida State |
| 31 | Xavier Watts | SAF | 2 | Notre Dame |
| 29 | Sydney Brown | DB | 4 | Illinois |
Special teams 3
| # | Player | Pos | Exp | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nick Folk | K | 19 | Arizona |
| 16 | Jake Bailey | P | 8 | Stanford |
| 49 | Liam McCullough | LS | 5 | Ohio State |
Atlanta Falcons FAQ
What are the Falcons’ Super Bowl odds?
Squawka Signal gives the Falcons a 0.1% chance of winning Super Bowl LXI. The market prices them at 0.8%, so the model reads them as fair. See the full Super Bowl odds.
Can the Falcons win the NFC South?
The model makes them 16.0% to win the NFC South. The Carolina Panthers are favoured at 58.9%.
Will the Falcons make the playoffs?
Signal has them at 17.6% to reach the postseason, and 0.0% to take the No.1 seed in the NFC.
Who do the Falcons play next?
Week 7, at home to San Francisco 49ers on Sun Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET. Signal makes the Falcons 27% with a projected line of ATL +6.5. Read our full preview.
Who is the Falcons’ starting quarterback?
Michael Penix Jr. That is the projected starter our model rates the Falcons on, taken from last season’s attempts plus any offseason moves — not an official depth chart.
What record are the Falcons projected to finish with?
Adding up the model’s win probability for all 17 games gives an expected 7-10 (6.9 wins).
When is the Falcons’ bye week?
Week 11 of the 2026 season.
What is the Falcons’ power ranking?
Signal ranks them #21 of 32. The rating behind it is built from results and margin of victory, adjusted for opponent quality and for who is playing quarterback.
Where do the Falcons play?
Atlanta Falcons play their home games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.