Arsenal defend the title they finally landed in 2025-26, and the market makes them favourites again — but a long way from a shoo-in.
The 2026-27 Premier League opens on August 21, and the title market has settled into a familiar shape: Arsenal out in front, Manchester City the standing threat, and Liverpool and Manchester United a tier back with Chelsea. Here is how the market currently prices it.
| 1 |  Arsenal | 32% |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 22% |
| 3 |  Manchester United | 12% |
| 4 |  Liverpool | 12% |
| 5 |  Chelsea | 9% |
| 6 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 4% |
| 7 |  Aston Villa | 1% |
| 8 |  Newcastle United | 1% |
Premier League 2026-27 title race
Arsenal. Champions at last, and the market’s favourite to go back-to-back — but at odds that say the field still fancies its chances. Continuity is their edge; complacency the only real risk.
Manchester City. Never write them off. The price reflects a squad in transition rather than decline, and a fully-firing City remain the one side capable of running Arsenal down over 38.
Liverpool and Manchester United. The pair the market can’t separate. Both have the ceiling to be involved; both carry the questions that keep them a tier below the top two on price.
Chelsea and Tottenham. Chelsea are the last of the shorter-priced contenders; Tottenham head the each-way end of the market a step behind them. Value if either flies out of the blocks, but for Spurs in particular a top-four finish is the realistic ceiling.
Our model lands once the season is underway
We will add our Squawka Signal model — a data-led title probability for every club against the live market, the same tracker running on our MLS pages — once the season has enough games to read fairly. Until then, track the race on the Premier League hub and the live table.
Other Premier League 2026-27 markets
Beyond the title, see our Premier League relegation odds and top-scorer charts. The hub tracks the table and fixtures behind them.
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