Prediction markets are federally regulated by the CFTC and, in principle, available across the United States — but the picture on the ground varies by state, and it is moving fast. Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood and ProphetX operate as CFTC-regulated event-contract exchanges; several states are challenging that in court, and a Supreme Court case looks likely.
Pick your state below for its current status, which platforms you can use, the age rules and where the legal debate stands. It is general information, not legal advice.
Model vs Market
TolucaLiga MXSquawka model31%Market19%STRONG VALUE · +12pp
Signal rates them higher than the market: 31.1% vs 19.0% (kalshi+polymarket).
Manchester CityEPL titleSquawka model40%Market30%STRONG VALUE · +10pp
Signal rates them higher than the market: 40.2% vs 30.2% (kalshi+polymarket).
Nashville SCMLS CupSquawka model24%Market16%VALUE · +9pp
Signal rates them higher than the market: 24.3% vs 15.6% (kalshi+polymarket).
MonterreyLiga MXSquawka model2%Market8%SLIGHT LAY · -7pp
Signal rates them shorter than the market: 1.6% vs 8.4% (kalshi+polymarket).
Cruz AzulLiga MXSquawka model9%Market15%SLIGHT LAY · -6pp
Signal rates them shorter than the market: 9.1% vs 15.2% (kalshi+polymarket).
Prediction markets by state
More states are being added. For the platforms themselves, see our Kalshi review, Polymarket review and Kalshi vs Polymarket comparison, or the guide to whether Kalshi is legit and legal.
Illustrative availability, last reviewed September 2026 — general information, not legal advice. Regulation is evolving and varies by state; confirm eligibility with the platform. 18+/21+.