New England Patriots Odds & Predictions
Squawka Signal’s projected line and win probability for every Patriots game this season, plus AFC East standings and Super Bowl odds.
Patriots 2026 outlook
| Market | Squawka | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots Super Bowl oddsFull odds | 5.9% | 3.3% | 3.3% | +2.6 | Fair |
| Patriots AFC Championship oddsFull odds | 11.2% | 7.6% | 8.6% | +2.7 | Fair |
| Patriots AFC East odds | 25.4% | Signal read | |||
at Moneyline
Against the spread
Squawka Signal is a 538-lineage Elo model with a 10,000-run Monte Carlo season simulation. Market prices are de-vigged to fair probability. Model numbers are a view, not a guarantee. 21+. Play responsibly.
AFC East standings and division odds
Division and playoff odds are the model’s, from a 10,000-run season simulation.
| Team | Record | Win AFC East | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
 Buffalo Bills | 5-1 | 74.6% | 98.2% |
| New England Patriots | 4-2 | 25.4% | 85.5% |
 New York Jets | 2-4 | 0.0% | 0.5% |
 Miami Dolphins | 0-5 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
New England Patriots schedule, results and lines
Every game with the model’s win probability and projected line, against the market spread where it’s priced.
Patriots injury report
Official designations for Week 7.
| Player | Pos | Status | Injury | Practice |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Brown | C | Out | Knee | DNP |
| Carlton Davis III | CB | Out | Neck | Limited |
| Channing Canada | CB | Out | Hamstring | Limited |
| Christian Elliss | LB | Questionable | Chest | Full |
| Christian Gonzalez | CB | Questionable | Illness | |
| Craig Woodson | SAF | Questionable | Shoulder | Full |
| Karon Prunty | CB | Out | Hamstring | Limited |
| Kevin Byard III | SAF | Questionable | Chest | Full |
| Morgan Moses | OT | Questionable | Foot | Limited |
Out long-term
| Player | Pos | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Reggie Gilliam | FB | IR |
| Alijah Vera-Tucker | G | IR |
| Khalil Jacobs | LB | IR |
| Quintayvious Hutchins | LB | IR |
| Greg Van Roten | OL | IR |
| Mike Onwenu | OL | IR |
| Bryce Baringer | P | IR |
| Myles Montgomery | RB | IR |
| Dell Pettus | SAF | IR |
| Marcus Bryant | T | IR |
| Julian Hill | TE | IR |
| Mack Hollins | WR | IR |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | IR |
| Harold Landry III | LB | PUP |
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83 players · tap to open
Offense 42
| # | Player | Pos | Exp | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Tommy DeVito | QB | 4 | Illinois |
| 10 | Drake Maye | QB | 3 | North Carolina |
| 15 | Behren Morton | QB | Texas Tech | |
| 32 | TreVeyon Henderson | RB | 2 | Ohio State |
| 9 | Corey Kiner | RB | 2 | Cincinnati |
| 34 | Lan Larison | RB | 2 | UC Davis |
| 39 | Myles Montgomery | RB | UCF | |
| 38 | Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 6 | Oklahoma |
| 44 | Reggie Gilliam | FB | 7 | Toledo |
| 81 | Chandler Brayboy | WR | 1 | Elon |
| 1 | A.J. Brown | WR | 8 | Ole Miss |
| 83 | Kyle Dixon | WR | Culver-Stockton | |
| 88 | Cameron Dorner | WR | North Texas | |
| 87 | Romeo Doubs | WR | 5 | Nevada |
| 3 | DeMario Douglas | WR | 4 | Liberty |
| 13 | Mack Hollins | WR | 10 | North Carolina |
| 86 | Efton Chism III | WR | 2 | Eastern Washington |
| 11 | Ryan Miller | WR | 3 | Furman |
| 18 | Kyle Williams | WR | 2 | Washington State |
| 84 | Tanner Arkin | TE | Illinois | |
| 80 | Tanner Conner | TE | 4 | Idaho State |
| 85 | Hunter Henry | TE | 11 | Arkansas |
| 80 | Julian Hill | TE | 4 | Campbell |
| 36 | Cameron Latu | TE | 3 | Alabama |
| 82 | Eli Raridon | TE | Notre Dame | |
| 77 | Ben Brown | C | 4 | Ole Miss |
| 55 | Jared Wilson | C | 2 | Georgia |
| 67 | Andrew Rupcich | G | 2 | Culver-Stockton |
| 75 | Alijah Vera-Tucker | G | 6 | USC |
| 66 | Will Campbell | OT | 2 | LSU |
| 61 | Lorenz Metz | OT | 1 | Cincinnati |
| 76 | Morgan Moses | OT | 13 | Virginia |
| 52 | Marcus Bryant | T | 2 | Missouri |
| 68 | Dametrious Crownover | T | Texas A&M | |
| 74 | Caleb Lomu | T | Utah | |
| 63 | Jake Kubas | OL | 2 | North Dakota State |
| 64 | Xavier Newman-Johnson | OL | 4 | Baylor |
| 71 | Mike Onwenu | OL | 7 | Michigan |
| 65 | Matt Pryor | OL | 9 | TCU |
| 69 | Jacob Rizy | OL | Florida State | |
| 70 | Greg Van Roten | OL | 12 | Penn |
| 72 | Walter Rouse | OL | 3 | Oklahoma |
Defense 37
| # | Player | Pos | Exp | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | Christian Barmore | DT | 6 | Alabama |
| 94 | Cory Durden | DT | 2 | NC State |
| 92 | Joshua Farmer | DT | 2 | Florida State |
| 95 | Eric Gregory | DT | 2 | Arkansas |
| 93 | Leonard Taylor III | DT | 3 | Miami (FL) |
| 99 | DaQuan Jones | DT | 12 | Penn State |
| 98 | Jeremiah Pharms Jr. | DT | 3 | Friends |
| 97 | Milton Williams | DT | 6 | Louisiana Tech |
| 35 | K.J. Britt | LB | 6 | Auburn |
| 53 | Christian Elliss | LB | 5 | Idaho |
| 58 | Xavier Holmes | LB | James Madison | |
| 49 | Erick Hunter | LB | Morgan State | |
| 45 | Quintayvious Hutchins | LB | Boston College | |
| 2 | Harold Landry III | LB | 9 | Boston College |
| 50 | Gabe Jacas | LB | Illinois | |
| 59 | Khalil Jacobs | LB | Missouri | |
| 5 | Dre'Mont Jones | LB | 8 | Ohio State |
| 54 | Darius Muasau | LB | 3 | UCLA |
| 48 | Namdi Obiazor | LB | TCU | |
| 91 | Elijah Ponder | LB | 2 | Cal Poly |
| 14 | Robert Spillane | LB | 8 | Western Michigan |
| 42 | Benton Whitley | LB | 5 | Holy Cross |
| 29 | Channing Canada | CB | TCU | |
| 0 | Christian Gonzalez | CB | 4 | Oregon |
| 26 | Al'zillion Hamilton | CB | Fresno State | |
| 7 | Carlton Davis III | CB | 8 | Auburn |
| 25 | Marcus Jones | CB | 5 | Houston |
| 21 | Karon Prunty | CB | Wake Forest | |
| 28 | Kindle Vildor | CB | 7 | Georgia Southern |
| 22 | Charles Woods | CB | 3 | SMU |
| 33 | Mike Brown | SAF | 4 | Miami (OH) |
| 27 | Elliott Davison | SAF | 1 | UTSA |
| 31 | Kevin Byard III | SAF | 11 | Middle Tennessee |
| 24 | Dell Pettus | SAF | 3 | Troy |
| 23 | Jaylen Reed | SAF | 2 | Penn State |
| 41 | Brenden Schooler | SAF | 5 | Texas |
| 4 | Craig Woodson | SAF | 2 | California |
Special teams 4
| # | Player | Pos | Exp | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Andy Borregales | K | 2 | Miami (FL) |
| 17 | Bryce Baringer | P | 4 | Michigan State |
| 19 | Mitch Wishnowsky | P | 8 | Utah |
| 47 | Julian Ashby | LS | 2 | Vanderbilt |
New England Patriots FAQ
What are the Patriots’ Super Bowl odds?
Squawka Signal gives the Patriots a 5.9% chance of winning Super Bowl LXI. The market prices them at 3.3%, so the model reads them as fair. See the full Super Bowl odds.
Can the Patriots win the AFC East?
The model makes them 25.4% to win the AFC East. The Buffalo Bills are favoured at 74.6%.
Will the Patriots make the playoffs?
Signal has them at 85.5% to reach the postseason, and 9.3% to take the No.1 seed in the AFC.
Who do the Patriots play next?
Week 7, away at Chicago Bears on Thu Oct 22, 8:15 PM ET. Signal makes the Patriots 56% with a projected line of NE -1.6. Read our full preview.
Who is the Patriots’ starting quarterback?
Drake Maye. That is the projected starter our model rates the Patriots on, taken from last season’s attempts plus any offseason moves — not an official depth chart.
What record are the Patriots projected to finish with?
Adding up the model’s win probability for all 17 games gives an expected 11-6 (10.6 wins).
When is the Patriots’ bye week?
Week 11 of the 2026 season.
What is the Patriots’ power ranking?
Signal ranks them #5 of 32. The rating behind it is built from results and margin of victory, adjusted for opponent quality and for who is playing quarterback.
Where do the Patriots play?
New England Patriots play their home games at Gillette Stadium.