Signal makes Lionel Messi the MLS Golden Boot favorite at 80%, on 21 goals so far and a projected 25. Every contender below carries our model’s probability of finishing top scorer, next to the live prediction-market price, so you can see where Signal and the money disagree.
Updated October 9, 2026 · goals to date shown · refreshed daily
Signal is our model’s probability that each player finishes the season as MLS Golden Boot winner — built from goals to date plus a projection of the rest of the season from each player’s scoring rate. Market is what the prediction markets are paying. The Market column is a consensus of the live Kalshi and Polymarket top-scorer prices, de-vigged; the per-player split is in each row’s drawer. Where a name isn’t trading yet, we show Signal only and the market fills in automatically once it prices.
How Signal projects the Golden Boot
Signal banks each contender’s goals so far, then projects his remaining goals from a scoring rate that leans on his record and is regressed for a small sample, across his team’s remaining fixtures. It then simulates the race tens of thousands of times to turn those projections into a probability of finishing top. The whole table — goals, projected total and probability — refreshes every day as results land.
FAQ
Who is favorite for the MLS Golden Boot? Lionel Messi tops Squawka Signal’s model at 80%, on 21 goals so far. The full order of contenders, with the market’s view alongside, is in the table above.
How often do these odds update? Every day. Signal re-banks each player’s goals and re-projects the rest of the season, and the live Kalshi and Polymarket prices refresh alongside.
21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Odds approximate at time of writing. Squawka Signal is a model, not betting advice.
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