Houston Texans Odds & Predictions
Squawka Signal’s projected line and win probability for every Texans game this season, plus AFC South standings and Super Bowl odds.
Texans 2026 outlook
| Market | Squawka | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans Super Bowl oddsFull odds | 0.4% | 3.3% | 3.0% | -2.9 | Fair |
| Texans AFC Championship oddsFull odds | 1.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | -4.5 | Lay |
| Texans AFC South odds | 9.4% | Signal read | |||
vs Moneyline
Against the spread
Signal read
Strong laySquawka Signal is a 538-lineage Elo model with a 10,000-run Monte Carlo season simulation. Market prices are de-vigged to fair probability. Model numbers are a view, not a guarantee. 21+. Play responsibly.
AFC South standings and division odds
Division and playoff odds are the model’s, from a 10,000-run season simulation.
| Team | Record | Win AFC South | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 4-2 | 89.1% | 93.9% |
| Houston Texans | 2-4 | 9.4% | 24.7% |
 Indianapolis Colts | 2-4 | 1.5% | 2.6% |
 Tennessee Titans | 1-5 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Houston Texans schedule, results and lines
Every game with the model’s win probability and projected line, against the market spread where it’s priced.
Jacksonville Jaguars Neutral siteSun Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET38%win prob+3.2proj lineW 34–31FinalRead preview
Texans injury report
Out long-term
| Player | Pos | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Jaylin Smith | CB | IR |
| Ali Gaye | DE | IR |
| Dylan Horton | DE | IR |
| Solomon Byrd | DE | IR |
| Mario Edwards Jr. | DT | IR |
| Jake Hummel | LB | IR |
| K.C. Ossai | LB | IR |
| Sam Hagen | OT | IR |
| Graham Mertz | QB | IR |
| British Brooks | RB | IR |
| Jayden Higgins | WR | IR |
| E.J. Speed | LB | PUP |
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84 players · tap to open
Offense 40
| # | Player | Pos | Exp | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Graham Mertz | QB | 2 | Florida |
| 10 | Davis Mills | QB | 6 | Stanford |
| 7 | C.J. Stroud | QB | 4 | Ohio State |
| 44 | British Brooks | RB | 3 | North Carolina |
| 25 | Jawhar Jordan | RB | 1 | Louisville |
| 4 | Woody Marks | RB | 2 | USC |
| 32 | David Montgomery | RB | 8 | Iowa State |
| 23 | Dare Ogunbowale | RB | 9 | Wisconsin |
| 31 | Deuce Vaughn | RB | 3 | Kansas State |
| 26 | Noah Whittington | RB | Oregon | |
| 82 | Lewis Bond | WR | Boston College | |
| 14 | Kayshon Boutte | WR | 4 | LSU |
| 12 | Nico Collins | WR | 6 | Michigan |
| 1 | Tank Dell | WR | 4 | Houston |
| 81 | Jayden Higgins | WR | 2 | Iowa State |
| 19 | Xavier Hutchinson | WR | 4 | Iowa State |
| 18 | Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 3 | Ohio State |
| 85 | Josh Kelly | WR | 1 | Texas Tech |
| 13 | Jaylin Noel | WR | 2 | Iowa State |
| 84 | Bryce Oliver | WR | 3 | Youngstown State |
| 9 | Brevin Jordan | TE | 6 | Miami (FL) |
| 83 | Marlin Klein | TE | Michigan | |
| 88 | Zaire Mitchell-Paden | TE | 2 | Florida Atlantic |
| 87 | Foster Moreau | TE | 8 | LSU |
| 86 | Dalton Schultz | TE | 9 | Stanford |
| 8 | Cade Stover | TE | 3 | Ohio State |
| 60 | Jake Andrews | C | 4 | Troy |
| 69 | Ed Ingram | G | 5 | LSU |
| 64 | Febechi Nwaiwu | G | Oklahoma | |
| 75 | Wyatt Teller | G | 9 | Virginia Tech |
| 76 | Sam Hagen | OT | South Dakota State | |
| 70 | James Neal III | OT | Iowa State | |
| 67 | Max Pircher | OT | 1 | Hildesheim |
| 71 | Braden Smith | OT | 9 | Auburn |
| 77 | Trent Brown | T | 12 | Florida |
| 79 | Aireontae Ersery | T | 2 | Minnesota |
| 57 | Blake Fisher | T | 3 | Notre Dame |
| 78 | Nate Thomas | T | 3 | Louisiana |
| 63 | Evan Brown | OL | 8 | SMU |
| 66 | Keylan Rutledge | OL | Georgia Tech |
Defense 41
| # | Player | Pos | Exp | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Braswell | DE | 3 | Alabama | |
| 50 | Solomon Byrd | DE | 1 | USC |
| 90 | Jadeveon Clowney | DE | 13 | South Carolina |
| 95 | Ali Gaye | DE | 3 | LSU |
| 96 | Logan Hall | DE | 5 | Houston |
| 54 | Sabastian Harsh | DE | NC State | |
| 92 | Dylan Horton | DE | 4 | TCU |
| 55 | Danielle Hunter | DE | 12 | LSU |
| 51 | Will Anderson Jr. | DE | 4 | Alabama |
| 94 | Dominique Robinson | DE | 5 | Miami (OH) |
| 95 | Jaden Crumedy | DT | 3 | Mississippi State |
| 58 | Kyonte Hamilton | DT | 2 | Rutgers |
| 97 | Mario Edwards Jr. | DT | 11 | Florida State |
| 93 | Kayden McDonald | DT | Ohio State | |
| 98 | Sheldon Rankins | DT | 11 | Louisville |
| 91 | Junior Tafuna | DT | 1 | Utah |
| 72 | Tommy Togiai | DT | 5 | Ohio State |
| 0 | Azeez Al-Shaair | LB | 8 | Florida Atlantic |
| 35 | Jake Hansen | LB | 5 | Illinois |
| 33 | Jake Hummel | LB | 5 | Iowa State |
| 47 | Caleb Johnson | LB | 6 | Houston Christian |
| Kenneth Murray Jr. | LB | 7 | Oklahoma | |
| 49 | Chad Muma | LB | 5 | Wyoming |
| 52 | K.C. Ossai | LB | 1 | Louisiana |
| 45 | E.J. Speed | LB | 8 | Tarleton State |
| 39 | Henry To'oTo'o | LB | 4 | Alabama |
| 30 | Wade Woodaz | LB | Clemson | |
| 28 | Jaden Davis | CB | 2 | Miami (FL) |
| 34 | Bryce Hall | CB | 6 | Virginia |
| 24 | Derek Stingley Jr. | CB | 5 | LSU |
| 3 | Kamari Lassiter | CB | 3 | Georgia |
| 22 | Jaylin Smith | CB | 2 | USC |
| 11 | Tremon Smith | CB | 9 | Central Arkansas |
| Collin Wright | CB | Stanford | ||
| 6 | Reed Blankenship | SAF | 5 | Middle Tennessee |
| 2 | Calen Bullock | SAF | 3 | USC |
| 20 | Ja'Marcus Ingram | SAF | 3 | Buffalo |
| 36 | George Odum | SAF | 9 | Central Arkansas |
| 5 | Jalen Pitre | SAF | 5 | Baylor |
| 27 | Kamari Ramsey | SAF | USC | |
| 29 | M.J. Stewart | SAF | 9 | North Carolina |
Special teams 3
| # | Player | Pos | Exp | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Ka'imi Fairbairn | K | 11 | UCLA |
| 38 | Kai Kroeger | P | 2 | South Carolina |
| 40 | Austin Brinkman | LS | 2 | West Virginia |
Houston Texans FAQ
What are the Texans’ Super Bowl odds?
Squawka Signal gives the Texans a 0.4% chance of winning Super Bowl LXI. The market prices them at 3.3%, so the model reads them as fair. See the full Super Bowl odds.
Can the Texans win the AFC South?
The model makes them 9.4% to win the AFC South. The Jacksonville Jaguars are favoured at 89.1%.
Will the Texans make the playoffs?
Signal has them at 24.7% to reach the postseason, and 0.0% to take the No.1 seed in the AFC.
Who do the Texans play next?
Week 7, at home to New York Giants on Sun Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET. Signal makes the Texans 68% with a projected line of HOU -4.8. Read our full preview.
Who is the Texans’ starting quarterback?
C.J. Stroud. That is the projected starter our model rates the Texans on, taken from last season’s attempts plus any offseason moves — not an official depth chart.
What record are the Texans projected to finish with?
Adding up the model’s win probability for all 17 games gives an expected 10-7 (9.7 wins).
When is the Texans’ bye week?
Week 8 of the 2026 season.
What is the Texans’ power ranking?
Signal ranks them #16 of 32. The rating behind it is built from results and margin of victory, adjusted for opponent quality and for who is playing quarterback.
Where do the Texans play?
Houston Texans play their home games at Reliant Stadium.