The best prediction markets for US traders in 2026 are Kalshi and Polymarket — both CFTC-regulated, both live for US real-money trading. Prediction markets are the federally-regulated alternative to traditional sportsbooks: yes/no event contracts on real-world outcomes, priced in cents on the dollar. For bettors in states without legal sports betting (Florida, California, Texas, Georgia, and others), they are the cleanest legal route to trade on sports outcomes. These are the two leading platforms, ranked by our editors.
Best prediction markets at a glance
- Best overall, best for US state coverage, best for fiat funding — Kalshi (CFTC-regulated, all 50 states, ACH and debit funding)
- Best for global liquidity, best for market breadth — Polymarket (USDC-denominated, available across the US bar nine states via QCX)
- Best deep-dive comparison — see our Kalshi vs Polymarket head-to-head
Updated June 2026.
Best US prediction markets for June 2026: the ranking
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Must be 18 years or older and have a legal, U.S. residential address within the applicable state, D.C., or U.S. territories. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV and OH. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2573). Chat available at ncpgambling.org/chat
1. Kalshi — 9.3 / 10
Best for US sports event trading with fiat-rail funding. Tradeable today, all 50 states. Welcome offer: Trade $10, Get $10 Bonus. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market, available for real-money trading in all 50 US states. Yes/no event contracts on NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, soccer (EPL, UCL, MLS, World Cup), tennis, and golf — plus politics, economics, and culture. Funding is via ACH bank transfer or debit card. No crypto. Gains are reported as short-term capital gains, not gambling winnings.
- Tradeable today in all 50 US states under federal CFTC oversight
- Fiat-rail funding via ACH and debit (no crypto required)
- Deep US sports event-contract catalogue
- Capital-gains tax treatment, not gambling winnings
18+. Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. CFTC-regulated. Gains reportable as short-term capital gains.
2. Polymarket — 8.7 / 10
Best for global liquidity and event-type breadth — now live for US real-money trading. Welcome offer: 100% deposit match up to $50 with code ACQUIRE05. Polymarket runs on the Polygon blockchain with USDC-denominated contracts. Following its 2025 acquisition of QCX (a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange), it now offers real-money event-contract trading to US users in most states, with the exception of Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, Nevada and Ohio. You must be 18+ with a legal US residential address in an eligible state.
- Highest global liquidity of any prediction-market platform on flagship events
- Broadest event-type catalogue (sports + politics + culture + economics)
- No overround built into pricing
- Not available in nine states — AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV and OH
18+. Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. CFTC-regulated via QCX. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV and OH.
Compare US prediction markets at a glance
| Platform | Rating | US trading status | Welcome | Regulation | Funding |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 9.3 / 10 | Tradeable today (all 50 states) | Trade $10, Get $10 Bonus | CFTC Designated Contract Market | ACH, debit (fiat) |
| Polymarket | 8.7 / 10 | Tradeable now (41 states) | 100% up to $50 (ACQUIRE05) | CFTC via QCX | USDC / crypto |
Sportsbook vs prediction market: what’s the difference?
A traditional sportsbook offers betting lines on sports outcomes (moneyline, spread, totals) with overround — the bookmaker’s margin — built into the price. A prediction market lets you trade yes/no event contracts on the same outcomes (or on outcomes sportsbooks don’t price, like political events), with no built-in margin. The price you pay reflects the market’s aggregated probability assessment in cents on the dollar.
Three structural differences matter for US bettors:
- Legal access. Sportsbooks are licensed state by state and unavailable in around 20 US states. Kalshi operates under federal CFTC oversight and is tradeable in all 50. Polymarket also trades under CFTC oversight via QCX, in most states bar nine.
- Pricing structure. Sportsbook two-way markets carry overround (yes and no implied probabilities sum above 100%). Prediction-market two-way contracts sum to roughly 100¢, with the remainder going to platform fees.
- Tax treatment. Sportsbook winnings are reported as gambling income. CFTC-regulated prediction-market gains are reported as short-term capital gains on Form 1099-B.
How event contracts work
- Pick a market. Example: “Will Real Madrid win the 2026 UEFA Champions League final?”
- Read the price. A YES contract trades between $0 and $1. A price of $0.62 implies a 62% market-priced probability of the event occurring.
- Buy or sell. If you think YES is undervalued, you buy at $0.62. If the event resolves YES, your contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
- Or trade out early. Sell your contract back into the market at the current price before resolution to lock in profit or limit loss.
- Pay the fee. Most platforms charge a small percentage of net profits, not every trade — so you don’t pay anything if you don’t win.
How we ranked these prediction markets
Editors funded accounts where possible, traded across sports, politics, and macro markets, and tracked execution quality, fees, and withdrawal time. Liquidity scores are weighted by 2026 average daily volume in each category. We weight the criteria as follows:
- US trading availability (25%) — can US users actually trade on the platform today?
- Regulation (20%) — federal CFTC oversight, regulatory clarity
- Market liquidity (20%) — bid-ask spreads on flagship events
- Fees and pricing (15%) — trading fees, withdrawal costs, no built-in overround
- Funding and withdrawal (10%) — payment methods, withdrawal speed, fiat vs crypto rails
- Product polish (10%) — app UX, order-book depth, market discovery
Other US prediction markets worth watching
Kalshi and Polymarket are the two platforms we trade and rank in 2026, but the US event-contract landscape is widening. Several other operators are running CFTC-regulated event contracts or moving toward that model — none yet at the scale or product polish to displace Kalshi or Polymarket, but worth tracking.
PrizePicks Predict
PrizePicks, best known for its daily fantasy pick’em product, has expanded into event contracts through a CFTC-regulated arm. Coverage is narrower than Kalshi or Polymarket today and the markets skew toward US sports rather than the broad politics / culture / economics catalogue that Polymarket carries.
DraftKings Predict
DraftKings has been building a prediction-market product alongside its sportsbook, designed to extend the brand into states where event contracts trade legally and sports betting does not. The product runs separately from the main DraftKings sportsbook app and is in measured rollout.
Robinhood (via Kalshi)
Robinhood offers prediction-market access through a partnership with Kalshi rather than running its own exchange. The underlying contracts and pricing are Kalshi’s — Robinhood is the front-end for traders who prefer to keep event contracts inside their existing brokerage account.
ForecastEx
ForecastEx is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange focused on economic, climate, and political outcomes rather than sports. It is geared toward institutional and hedging use cases more than retail traders, but it sits in the same regulatory category as Kalshi and Polymarket.
Common questions about prediction markets
Which is the best prediction market for US sports?
Kalshi is our pick for US sports specifically. It is tradeable in all 50 states, funds via ACH and debit (no crypto required), and covers the major US leagues — NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL — plus soccer, tennis and golf. Polymarket has deeper political and culture markets, but Kalshi is built around US event-contract trading with a sports-first catalogue.
Are prediction markets legal in my state?
Yes, in all 50 states for CFTC-regulated platforms. Kalshi is the platform US users can trade today — federally regulated as a CFTC Designated Contract Market, available in all 50 states. Polymarket is also CFTC-regulated via its 2025 acquisition of QCX and now offers real-money US trading in most states, with the exception of AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV and OH. Some states have raised challenges to sports-related event contracts, but federal CFTC framework remains operative.
Are prediction markets gambling?
Legally, no. Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated commodity-exchange platform, with event contracts treated as derivatives rather than wagers. Polymarket follows the same regulatory category via QCX. Gains are reported as short-term capital gains on Form 1099-B, not gambling winnings.
Can I trade Polymarket in the US right now?
Yes. Following its 2025 QCX acquisition, Polymarket offers real-money event-contract trading to US users in most states, with the exception of Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, Nevada and Ohio. New users can claim a 100% deposit match up to $50 with code ACQUIRE05.
Can I make money on prediction markets?
On platforms where you can currently trade — yes, profitability depends on finding mispriced outcomes and managing risk. The structural absence of overround means your edge does not need to overcome built-in bookmaker margin. That makes prediction markets attractive to bettors who model probabilities and look for divergence from market pricing. Kalshi and Polymarket are both live for US traders today.
How are prediction-market gains taxed?
CFTC-regulated prediction-market gains are typically reported as short-term capital gains on Form 1099-B. This differs from gambling winnings, which carry their own reporting rules. Consult a qualified tax professional for your specific situation.
Is Polymarket better than Kalshi?
Neither is strictly better — they suit different traders. Polymarket has higher global liquidity on flagship events and the broadest event-type catalogue (sports, politics, culture, economics). Kalshi has wider US state coverage (all 50), simpler fiat funding via ACH and debit, and a sports-led product. If you trade primarily US sports and want fiat funding, choose Kalshi. If you trade event-contract breadth and want the deepest liquidity, choose Polymarket. Many active traders run both. See our full Kalshi vs Polymarket comparison for a side-by-side breakdown.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: which should I use today?
Both are now live for US real-money trading. Kalshi is available in all 50 states with fiat funding (ACH, debit). Polymarket is the global liquidity leader, funds in USDC, and is live across the US bar nine states — with a 100% deposit match up to $50 for new users (code ACQUIRE05). Pick Kalshi for state coverage and fiat funding; pick Polymarket for liquidity and market breadth. For a detailed side-by-side on regulation, fees, sports coverage and funding, see our Kalshi vs Polymarket comparison.
How do I sign up for a prediction market?
Both Kalshi and Polymarket require you to be 18 or over with a legal US residential address in an eligible state. Sign-up takes a few minutes: create an account with email or via Google/Apple, complete identity verification (a photo ID and a US address are typically required for CFTC-regulated platforms), and fund the account. Kalshi funds via ACH or debit; Polymarket funds in USDC. Once your account is funded you can trade event contracts on sports, politics and other markets.
Must be 18+. Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This page is informational and is not investment advice. If you or someone you know has a problem with gambling, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.