Erling Haaland is the clear favourite for the 2026-27 Premier League Golden Boot, and our Squawka Signal model agrees — but the race behind him is where the model and the market part company. Below is our data-led Golden Boot probability for every leading contender, set against the live bet365 Top Goalscorer odds.
Squawka Signal makes Erling Haaland the Golden Boot favourite at 37.0%, projecting around 21 goals, with Alexander Isak (Liverpool) next on 13.7%. The contender list follows the bet365 market, so it reflects the real 2026-27 squads — players who have left the league drop out, and movers show at their new clubs.
Where the model splits from bet365: it is keener than the market on Alexander Isak (Liverpool) and Cole Palmer (Chelsea). Pre-season the model leans to the market; those calls firm up or fade as goals are scored through 2026-27.
Premier League 2026-27 Golden Boot odds: model vs market
Premier League 2026-27 Golden Boot — Squawka Signal
1
Erling HaalandManchester CitySquawka37.0%bet36536.1%▬ Fair
2
Alexander IsakLiverpoolSquawka13.7%bet3656.0%▲ Value
3
Igor ThiagoBrentfordSquawka7.1%bet3655.5%▬ Fair
4
Ollie WatkinsAston VillaSquawka5.5%bet3654.0%▬ Fair
5
Cole PalmerChelseaSquawka4.5%bet3651.5%▲ Value
6
Yoane WissaNewcastle UnitedSquawka4.3%bet3651.5%▬ Fair
7
Bryan MbeumoManchester UnitedSquawka4.2%bet3651.2%▲ Value
8
Viktor GyokeresArsenalSquawka3.8%bet3652.9%▬ Fair
9Benjamin SeskoManchester UnitedSquawka3.8%bet3652.9%▬ Fair
10Joao PedroChelseaSquawka3.5%bet3653.5%▬ Fair
11
Dominic SolankeTottenham HotspurSquawka2.8%bet3651.8%▬ Fair
12Kai HavertzArsenalSquawka2.2%bet3651.5%▬ Fair
13Antoine SemenyoManchester CitySquawka2.0%bet3652.3%▬ Fair
14Nick WoltemadeNewcastle UnitedSquawka1.5%bet3651.2%▬ Fair
15Cody GakpoLiverpoolSquawka1.2%bet3651.2%▬ Fair
16
Dominic Calvert-LewinLeeds UnitedSquawka1.0%bet3651.2%▬ Fair
17Morgan RogersChelseaSquawka1.0%bet3651.2%▬ Fair
18
Morgan Gibbs-WhiteNottingham ForestSquawka1.0%bet3651.2%▬ Fair
Model % = Golden Boot probability across 40,000 season simulations, updated as goals are scored. Value = the market sits below our model, Overpriced = above it. For analysis and entertainment — not financial advice. 21+ where applicable; eligibility varies by US state. Read our bet365 review and the Signal methodology.
How the Signal Golden Boot model works
The model takes the bet365 contender pool (so it tracks the real 2026-27 squads), projects each player’s season goals from his Premier League scoring rate over recent seasons — regressed for reliability and a full-season appearance estimate — and runs 40,000 simulations of the campaign to a Golden Boot probability. Pre-season, with no 2026-27 goals yet, it leans toward the market; it shifts onto its own read as real goals are scored. See the Signal methodology for detail, and the live top-scorer table once the season starts.
Premier League Golden Boot 2026-27 FAQs
Who is favourite for the 2026-27 Golden Boot? Erling Haaland (Manchester City) is favourite on both our model and the bet365 market.
How is the Squawka Signal probability worked out? From each contender’s recent Premier League scoring rate, projected over a full season and simulated 40,000 times, then set against the market.
Other Premier League 2026-27 markets
Beyond the Golden Boot, see our Premier League title odds and relegation odds, plus the top-scorer charts. The hub tracks the table and fixtures.
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