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Home » Outright markets » Premier League 2026-27 Top Goalscorer Odds: Golden Boot Predictions

Premier League 2026-27 Top Goalscorer Odds: Golden Boot Predictions

Premier League top scorer odds 2026-27
Squawka Signal · Golden Boot

Premier League Golden Boot odds & Signal model

Signal makes Erling Haaland the Premier League Golden Boot favorite at 48%, on 9 goals so far and a projected 25. Every contender below carries our model’s probability of finishing top scorer, next to the live prediction-market price, so you can see where Signal and the money disagree.

Updated November 2, 2026 · goals to date shown · refreshed daily

GoalsProjSignalMarketRead
Erling Haaland
Manchester City
Goals9
Proj25
Signal47.5%
Market71.0%Kalshi + Polymarket
Market cooler
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi73.5%Trade
Polymarket68.5%Trade
Signal projects 25 goals this season.
Alexander Isak
Liverpool
Goals6
Proj21
Signal16.6%
Market14.2%Kalshi + Polymarket
In line
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi14.0%Trade
Polymarket14.5%Trade
Signal projects 21 goals this season.
Joao Pedro
Chelsea
Goals5
Proj14
Signal5.2%
Market3.9%Kalshi + Polymarket
In line
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi4.0%Trade
Polymarket3.8%Trade
Signal projects 14 goals this season.
Bryan Mbeumo
Manchester United
Goals4
Proj15
Signal4.4%
Market0.6%Kalshi + Polymarket
Value
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi0.5%Trade
Polymarket0.7%Trade
Signal projects 15 goals this season.
Nicolas Jackson
Aston Villa
Goals5
Proj14
Signal4.3%
Market0.2%Polymarket
Value
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshinot priced yetTrade
Polymarket0.2%Trade
Signal projects 14 goals this season.
Cole Palmer
Chelsea
Goals3
Proj14
Signal4.1%
Market2.0%Kalshi + Polymarket
In line
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi3.0%Trade
Polymarket1.1%Trade
Signal projects 14 goals this season.
Morgan Rogers
Chelsea
Goals5
Proj11
Signal2.6%
Market1.8%Kalshi + Polymarket
In line
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi3.0%Trade
Polymarket0.5%Trade
Signal projects 11 goals this season.
Francisco Evanilson
AFC Bournemouth
Goals4
Proj12
Signal2.3%
Market—
Model read
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshinot priced yetTrade
Polymarketnot priced yetTrade
Signal projects 12 goals this season.
Rayan Cherki
Manchester City
Goals4
Proj13
Signal2.2%
Market0.5%Kalshi
In line
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi0.5%Trade
Polymarketnot priced yetTrade
Signal projects 13 goals this season.
Kai Havertz
Arsenal
Goals3
Proj12
Signal2.0%
Market1.8%Kalshi + Polymarket
In line
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi2.5%Trade
Polymarket1.1%Trade
Signal projects 12 goals this season.
Charalampos Kostoulas
Brighton & Hove Albion
Goals3
Proj11
Signal1.4%
Market—
Model read
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshinot priced yetTrade
Polymarketnot priced yetTrade
Signal projects 11 goals this season.
Bukayo Saka
Arsenal
Goals3
Proj12
Signal1.4%
Market—
Model read
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshinot priced yetTrade
Polymarketnot priced yetTrade
Signal projects 12 goals this season.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Leeds United
Goals4
Proj10
Signal1.3%
Market0.8%Kalshi + Polymarket
In line
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi0.5%Trade
Polymarket1.2%Trade
Signal projects 10 goals this season.
Igor Thiago
Brentford
Goals2
Proj11
Signal1.2%
Market1.4%Kalshi + Polymarket
In line
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi1.5%Trade
Polymarket1.4%Trade
Signal projects 11 goals this season.
Thierno Barry
Everton
Goals3
Proj11
Signal1.2%
Market—
Model read
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshinot priced yetTrade
Polymarketnot priced yetTrade
Signal projects 11 goals this season.
Omar Marmoush
Tottenham Hotspur
Goals0
Proj10
Signal0.8%
Market0.5%Kalshi
In line
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi0.5%Trade
Polymarketnot priced yetTrade
Signal projects 10 goals this season.
Harvey Barnes
Newcastle United
Goals2
Proj9
Signal0.7%
Market—
Model read
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshinot priced yetTrade
Polymarketnot priced yetTrade
Signal projects 9 goals this season.
Antoine Semenyo
Manchester City
Goals2
Proj9
Signal0.7%
Market0.3%Kalshi + Polymarket
In line
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi0.5%Trade
Polymarket0.2%Trade
Signal projects 9 goals this season.
Trade the Golden Boot on Kalshi Trade on Polymarket

How to read it

Signal is our model’s probability that each player finishes the season as Premier League Golden Boot winner — built from goals to date plus a projection of the rest of the season from each player’s scoring rate. Market is what the prediction markets are paying. The Market column is a consensus of the live Kalshi and Polymarket top-scorer prices, de-vigged; the per-player split is in each row’s drawer. Where a name isn’t trading yet, we show Signal only and the market fills in automatically once it prices.

How Signal projects the Golden Boot

Signal banks each contender’s goals so far, then projects his remaining goals from a scoring rate that leans on his record and is regressed for a small sample, across his team’s remaining fixtures. It then simulates the race tens of thousands of times to turn those projections into a probability of finishing top. The whole table — goals, projected total and probability — refreshes every day as results land.

FAQ

Who is favorite for the Premier League Golden Boot? Erling Haaland tops Squawka Signal’s model at 48%, on 9 goals so far. The full order of contenders, with the market’s view alongside, is in the table above.

How often do these odds update? Every day. Signal re-banks each player’s goals and re-projects the rest of the season, and the live Kalshi and Polymarket prices refresh alongside.

More from Squawka Signal

How Squawka Signal works · Premier League AI Predictor · Premier League on Squawka

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Odds approximate at time of writing. Squawka Signal is a model, not betting advice.