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    Buffalo Bills Odds & Predictions

    AFCAFC EastElo 1687.3 · #1 of 32
    0-02026 record

    Squawka Signal’s projected line and win probability for every Bills game this season, plus AFC East standings and Super Bowl odds.

    Squawka SignalModel vs market

    Bills 2026 outlook

    88.2%Make playoffs
    63.8%Win AFC East
    22.6%No.1 seed
    23.5%Win AFC
    13.8%Win Super Bowl
    MarketSquawkaKalshiPolymarketGapRead
    Bills Super Bowl odds13.8%7.0%8.2%+5.6Value
    Bills AFC Championship odds23.5%14.9%15.8%+7.7Value
    Bills AFC East odds63.8%Model read
    Next game · Week 1HOUat Houston TexansSun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET

    Moneyline

    Squawka44% (+127)
    Market51% (-104)
    Gap-6.0 pts

    Against the spread

    ProjectedBUF +1.5
    Total44.0

    Signal read

    Lay
    KalshiPolymarketProphetX

    Squawka Signal is a 538-lineage Elo model with a 10,000-run Monte Carlo season simulation. Market prices are de-vigged to fair probability. Model numbers are a view, not a guarantee. 21+. Play responsibly.

    AFC East standings and division odds

    Records begin after Week 1. Division and playoff odds are the model’s, from a 10,000-run season simulation.

    TeamRecordWin AFC EastPlayoffs
    BUFBuffalo Bills–63.8%88.2%
    NENew England Patriots–34.2%71.9%
    MIAMiami Dolphins–1.8%8.4%
    NYJNew York Jets–0.2%1.3%
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    Buffalo Bills schedule, results and lines

    Every game with the model’s win probability and projected line, against the market spread where it’s priced.

    WK 1@HOUHouston TexansSun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET44%win prob+1.5proj line-104market priceRead preview
    WK 2vsDETDetroit LionsThu Sep 17, 8:15 PM ET60%win prob-2.8proj line-150market price
    WK 3vsLACLos Angeles ChargersSun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET63%win prob-3.4proj line–market
    WK 4vsNENew England PatriotsSun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET59%win prob-2.3proj line–market
    WK 5@LALos Angeles RamsMon Oct 12, 8:15 PM ET45%win prob+1.3proj line–market
    WK 6@LVLas Vegas RaidersSun Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET77%win prob-8.0proj line–market
    WK 7Bye week
    WK 8vsBALBaltimore RavensSun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET63%win prob-3.4proj line–market
    WK 9@MINMinnesota VikingsMon Nov 9, 8:15 PM ET51%win prob-0.2proj line–market
    WK 10@NYJNew York JetsSun Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET76%win prob-7.5proj line–market
    WK 11vsMIAMiami DolphinsSun Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET73%win prob-6.6proj line–market
    WK 12vsKCKansas City ChiefsThu Nov 26, 8:20 PM ET70%win prob-5.5proj line–market
    WK 13@NENew England PatriotsSun Dec 6, 4:25 PM ET49%win prob+0.3proj line–market
    WK 14@GBGreen Bay PackersSun Dec 13, 8:20 PM ET54%win prob-0.9proj line–market
    WK 15vsCHIChicago BearsSat Dec 19, 8:20 PM ET64%win prob-3.9proj line–market
    WK 16@DENDenver BroncosFri Dec 25, 4:30 PM ET42%win prob+2.0proj line–market
    WK 17@MIAMiami DolphinsSun Jan 3, 1:00 PM ET65%win prob-3.9proj line–market
    WK 18vsNYJNew York Jets FlexSun Jan 10, 1:00 PM ET83%win prob-10.2proj line–market

    Bills injury report

    No designations filed yet for Week 1.

    Latest Bills coverage

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    Buffalo Bills roster

    74 players · tap to open

    Offense 34

    #PlayerPosExpCollege
    17Josh AllenQB9Wyoming
    11Kyle AllenQB8Houston
    Shane BuecheleQB4SMU
    7Ray DavisRB3Kentucky
    4James Cook IIIRB5Georgia
    26Ty JohnsonRB8Maryland
    Frank Gore Jr.RB1Southern Miss
    13Skyler BellWRUConn
    0Keon ColemanWR3Florida State
    Greg DortchWR6Wake Forest
    Stephen GosnellWR1Virginia Tech
    Ja'Mori MaclinWRKentucky
    2DJ MooreWR9Maryland
    5Joshua PalmerWR6Tennessee
    10Khalil ShakirWR5Boise State
    14Tyrell ShaversWR2San Diego State
    Trent SherfieldWR9Vanderbilt
    85Jackson HawesTE2Georgia Tech
    86Dalton KincaidTE4Utah
    88Dawson KnoxTE8Ole Miss
    83Keleki LatuTE1Washington
    53Lloyd CushenberryC7LSU
    Nick BroekerG3Ole Miss
    60Ar'maj Reed-AdamsGTexas A&M
    64O'Cyrus TorrenceG4Florida
    Chase LundtOT2UConn
    70Alec AndersonT4UCLA
    79Spencer BrownT6Northern Iowa
    73Dion DawkinsT10Temple
    Jedrick Wills Jr.T6Alabama
    74Jude BowryOLBoston College
    63Austin CorbettOL9Nevada
    68Tylan GrableOL3UCF
    66Connor McGovernOL8Penn State

    Defense 37

    #PlayerPosExpCollege
    90DeWayne CarterDT3Duke
    92Zane DurantDTPenn State
    72Phidarian MathisDT5Alabama
    91Ed OliverDT8Houston
    98T.J. SandersDT2South Carolina
    96Deone WalkerDT2Kentucky
    Travis ClaytonDL2
    97Greg GainesDL7Washington
    94Landon JacksonDL2Arkansas
    44Joe AndreessenLB3Buffalo
    8Terrel BernardLB5Baylor
    52Kaleb Elarms-OrrLBTCU
    Keonta JenkinsLB1Virginia Tech
    42Dorian WilliamsLB4Tulane
    9Bradley ChubbOLB9North Carolina State
    51Mike DannaOLB6Michigan
    55Michael HoechtOLB6Brown
    Andre Jones Jr.OLB2Louisiana
    99TJ ParkerOLBClemson
    15Greg RousseauOLB6Miami (FL)
    56Javon SolomonOLB3Troy
    Shaq ThompsonOLB11Washington
    23Dee AlfordCB5Tusculum
    47Christian BenfordCB5Villanova
    31Maxwell HairstonCB2Kentucky
    21Davison IgbinosunCBOhio State
    Anthony KendallCB3Baldwin Wallace
    Dorian StrongCB2Virginia Tech
    Kani WalkerCBArkansas
    24Cole BishopSAF2Utah
    22C.J. Gardner-JohnsonSAF8Florida
    3Damar HamlinSAF6Pittsburgh
    28Sam Franklin Jr.SAF7Temple
    29Jalon KilgoreSAFSouth Carolina
    Geno StoneSAF7Iowa
    Te'Cory CouchDB1Miami (FL)
    37Jordan HancockDB2Ohio State

    Special teams 3

    #PlayerPosExpCollege
    16Tyler BassK7Georgia Southern
    39Tommy Doman Jr.PFlorida
    69Reid FergusonLS10LSU