Tampa Bay have run for 1,349 yards and Chicago for 1,206. They are the two most productive ground games in the NFL, and our Buccaneers vs Bears prediction puts them on Sunday night.
The Chicago Bears hold opponents to 23.8% on third down, the best rate in the league by a distance. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers rate 72.6 through the air, the lowest figure in football.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears
Tampa Bay BuccaneersSquawka34%Market28%▲ Value
Chicago BearsSquawka66%Market72%▼ Slight laySquawka Signal is our model’s read against devigged market prices, updated after every result — not betting advice. How the NFL Signal works. 21+. Play responsibly. Full T&Cs & geo-restrictions apply: Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX.
Buccaneers vs Bears: our editor’s props
Two editor’s calls on this game, alongside the live Signal numbers.
AT Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Buccaneers vs Bears: 2026 form so far
The two busiest ground games in the league, against the best third-down defense in it. The table sets each attack against what the opposite defense has actually allowed.
Buccaneers attack against the Bears defense
| Per game | Buccaneers offense | Bears allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 131.4 | 219.0 |
| Rushing yards | 168.6 | 86.8 |
| Yards per carry | 5.1 | 4.4 |
| Passer rating | 72.6 | 98.5 |
| Touchdowns | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| Third-down conversion | 38.4% | 23.8% |
| Red-zone conversion | 50.0% | 57.1% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.9 | 2.8 |
Bears attack against the Buccaneers defense
| Per game | Bears offense | Buccaneers allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 236.5 | 205.9 |
| Rushing yards | 150.8 | 80.0 |
| Yards per carry | 4.3 | 3.6 |
| Passer rating | 92.3 | 74.9 |
| Touchdowns | 3.1 | 1.9 |
| Third-down conversion | 44.3% | 32.0% |
| Red-zone conversion | 58.8% | 50.0% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.4 | 2.0 |
Chicago allow a conversion on 23.8% of third downs. No other team is below 29%.
Buccaneers vs Bears quarterback matchup
Caleb Williams has six touchdown passes to one interception at 104.6 from five starts. Tampa Bay rate 72.6 as a team, the lowest in the NFL.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | Baker Mayfield | 0/3, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 39.6 rtg | 68/110, 679 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT, 80.8 rtg (5 games) |
| Bears | Caleb Williams | 22/33, 308 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 116.7 rtg | 112/158, 1267 yds, 6 TD, 1 INT, 104.6 rtg (5 games) |
Buccaneers vs Bears injury report and team news
Tampa Bay have run for 1,349 yards, more than any team in the NFL.
Chicago hold opponents to 23.8% on third down, the best rate in the league.
Tampa Bay rate 72.6 through the air, the lowest team passer rating in football.
Tampa Bay BuccaneersChicago BearsTwo run games and the league’s best third-down defense
One thousand three hundred and forty-nine rushing yards for Tampa Bay at 5.07 a carry, and 1,206 for Chicago. They are first and second in the NFL.
Chicago’s third-down defense is the number that decides it. Opponents convert 23.8%, and no other team in the league is below 29%.
Tampa Bay have no second option: 1,051 passing yards is the lowest total in football and 23 sacks conceded explains much of it.
Players to watch
- Caleb Williams (CHI, QB): 1,267 passing yards and six touchdowns at 104.6.
- D’Andre Swift (CHI, RB): Fronts a ground game with 1,206 yards at 4.29 a carry.
- Bucky Irving (TB, RB): Leads the most productive ground game in the NFL.
- Chris Godwin Jr. (TB, WR): A senior target in an attack rating 72.6 through the air.
How to watch Buccaneers vs Bears
Kickoff is 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, November 8 at Soldier Field, which is 7:20 PM CT and 5:20 PM PT. NBC has the national broadcast.
| Detail | Buccaneers vs Bears |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, November 8, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:20 PM ET / 7:20 PM CT / 5:20 PM PT |
| Venue | Soldier Field, Chicago, IL |
| TV | NBC/Peacock |
| Live stream | NFL+ / Peacock |
| Week | Week 9, 2026 NFL season |
Buccaneers vs Bears prediction and score projection
Chicago win 27-20. Tampa Bay can run it, and will, but a team rating 72.6 through the air cannot come from behind against the best third-down defense in football.
The live spread and our projected margin both update through the week.
Every Week 9 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9:15 PM | Jaguars @ Ravens | Jaguars 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 10:30 AM | Bengals @ Falcons | Bengals 27-17 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Browns @ Saints | Saints 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Cowboys @ Colts | Cowboys 26-20 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Broncos @ Panthers | Broncos 26-16 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Lions @ Dolphins | Lions 30-17 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Rams @ Commanders | Rams 27-17 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Giants @ Eagles | Giants 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Jets @ Chiefs | Chiefs 30-13 | Read |
| Sun 5:05 PM | Texans @ Chargers | Texans 23-17 | Read |
| Sun 5:25 PM | Cardinals @ Seahawks | Seahawks 30-16 | Read |
| Sun 5:25 PM | Packers @ Patriots | Patriots 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 5:25 PM | Raiders @ 49ers | 49ers 30-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:20 PM | Buccaneers @ Bears | Bears 27-20 | You are here |
| Mon 9:15 PM | Bills @ Vikings | Bills 27-24 | Read |
You can find our weekly NFL picks alongside our NFL hub. The outright markets are priced in the NFC board. Player markets sit with prop markets for this game.
Buccaneers vs Bears FAQ
Chicago. Our Signal model has the Bears favored and the live number is in the Signal card on this page. Chicago are 5-2 at +37; Tampa Bay are 3-5.
8:20 PM ET on Sunday, November 8 at Soldier Field, which is 7:20 PM CT and 5:20 PM PT.
Tampa Bay, with 1,349 rushing yards — more than any team in the NFL.
Opponents convert 23.8% against them. No other team in the league is below 29%.
21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Signal probabilities and odds approximate at time of writing and subject to change