Squawka Signal is our in-house NFL prediction model. For every team it produces a probability — to make the playoffs, win its conference and win the Super Bowl — and for every game a win probability and a projected margin. We then set those numbers against the live prediction market, so you can see where our model and the market disagree. Here is how it works, in plain terms.
Team power ratings
At the core is a power rating for every team, built with the Elo system — the same approach used in chess and popularised for the NFL by FiveThirtyEight. Each team carries a single number for its strength. After every game the winner takes rating points from the loser: beat a strong team by a wide margin and you gain more; lose to a weak one and you drop further. The ratings are built on every NFL game since 2021 and update after each week. Home advantage is built in, and at the start of each season every team is regressed part-way toward the league average — because last year’s form only tells you so much about this year’s roster.
The quarterback adjustment
The single biggest lever in projecting NFL games is the quarterback, and it is where a pure team rating falls short. A team can be strong on paper but start a backup; another can be middling but have an elite passer. So on top of the team rating we apply a quarterback adjustment. We score every starting quarterback’s play from the box score — passing and rushing production, touchdowns, interceptions, sacks — into a single value figure, and track a rolling measure of each quarterback’s form. Crucially, we regress that toward a quarterback’s longer-term level each offseason, so a hot streak or a late-season slump does not distort the next projection. The effect is that Signal rates a team on who is actually under center, and separates a quarterback’s quality from his team’s results.
Simulating the season
With every team rated, we simulate the rest of the season tens of thousands of times. Each simulation plays out every remaining game, seeds the playoffs using the NFL’s real tiebreaker rules, then runs the bracket and a neutral-site Super Bowl. Counting how often each team reaches each stage gives the probabilities you see — make the playoffs, win the conference, win it all. For an individual game, the rating gap becomes a win probability and a projected margin.
Model vs market: reading value
Alongside our number we show the live prediction-market price from Kalshi and Polymarket, converted to a clean probability (we strip out the market’s built-in margin so the field sums to 100%). Where our model rates a team higher than the market, we flag value; where the market rates them higher, overpriced; where they broadly agree, fair. The disagreements are the point — they are where our model thinks the market has it wrong, or the other way round.
How we know it works
We test the model the honest way: on games it had not seen. Across four seasons of out-of-sample results, Signal called game winners correctly around 65% of the time — clearly better than simply backing the home team — and, just as important, its probabilities are well-calibrated: teams it rates a 70% chance win about 70% of the time. Adding the quarterback adjustment measurably improves that accuracy, which is why it is built in.
What Signal is — and isn’t
Signal is a model read, not a tip. It is a data-led second opinion to set alongside the market, not a guarantee — the NFL is a high-variance sport and any single game can go either way. The numbers move as games are played, injuries land and quarterbacks change. Use it to understand where the value might sit, not as a promise of what will happen.
See the model in action
The model is live now across our NFL outright pages — Super Bowl odds, AFC Championship odds and NFC Championship odds — where every team’s probability sits next to the Kalshi and Polymarket price with a value read on each. You can also follow the wider picture across the Squawka NFL hub.
For analysis and entertainment — not financial advice. 21+ where applicable; eligibility varies by US state. Please play responsibly.