Outright Odds

Croatia odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats and final squad

By Mohamed Moallim

Published: 9:27, 10 June 2024 | Updated: 14:07, 15 June 2024

Croatia will seek to break their international trophy duck at Euro 2024 this summer.

Under the leadership of Zlatko Dalic, they’ve come agonisingly close. Across their last two World Cup campaigns, the Checkered Ones finished runners-up and third. However, sandwiched in between was a disappointing round of 16 exit from Euro 2020. Croatia have never exceeded the quarter-final stage in European football’s premier international tournament.

They are no longer the underdogs and remnants of their golden generation are still intact, so it remains to be seen which Croatian side will play in Germany this summer.

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Latest Croatia odds to win Euro 2024
Croatia to win Euro 2024
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Croatia to win Group B
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Croatia route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • Spain (15 June 2024, 5pm, Olympiastadion)
  • Albania (19 June 2024, 2pm, Volksparkstadion)
  • Italy (24 June 2024, 8pm, Red Bull Arena)

Croatia potential knockout stage opponents

If Croatia are to win Group B, then a third-place team from Groups A, D, E, and F will face them in the first knockout round. Get past that showdown, then a potential quarter-final with hosts Germany or Group C runner-up (England’s group) awaits them. Following that, there could be a semi-final date with the Netherlands, Belgium, or Portugal, and then potentially, England or France will be in the Berlin final.

Croatia key players for this year’s European Championship

Croatia top Euros Golden Boot contender: Ante Budimir

  • Key stat: Ante Budimir scored 17 goals in La Liga in 2023/24.

Ante Budimir may have fallen away in the race for the 2023/24 Pichichi Trophy, but the Croatian will look back fondly on the campaign having recorded his most prolific top-flight season to date.

Budimir, who permanently switched to Osasuna in 2021, registered his previous best at Mallorca during the 2019/20 season (13 goals). The Croatian averaged 0.62 goals per 90 in Spain’s top division while netting one goal every 144 minutes. Budimir has yet to pull up any trees on the international stage, having netted two goals across 19 appearances. That being said, his performances this season ensure a place in Croatia’s squad, and he’s one of the few out-and-out number 9s available.

Croatia primary playmaker: Luka Modric

  • Key stat: Only Andrej Kramaric (14) created more big chances among Croatians in Europe’s top five leagues than Luka Modric (12) in 2023/24.

This is undoubtedly Luka Modric’s swansong on the international stage. He’ll go down as his country’s most outstanding performer, and for his final trick, the Real Madrid maestro will hope to say goodbye by guiding Croatia to a first prize. By some margin, the oldest member of Zlatko Dalić’s set-up and perhaps ending up as the eldest statesman at the European Championships, the 38-year-old is showing no signs of slowing down. Although no longer ensured a starting berth in Carlo Ancelotti’s team, he still managed to produce six assists in the league for Real Madrid as they scooped the title.

Croatia card magnets & top tacklers: Marin Pongracic

  • Key stat: No one representing Croati committed more fouls (57) across Europe’s top five leagues than Marin Pongracic.

Even though he debuted four years ago, Marin Pongracic still has an element of freshness in Croatia’s squad. For one, the 26-year-old is back in the fold after going 18 consecutive international matches without being named in Dalic’s team. Pongracic, though, plays in one position where you can’t accuse Croatia of lacking. But as a regular in the heart of Lecce’s defence, he’s proven to be a naughty boy, having picked up eight yellow cards from his 57 fouls.

Croatia rising star: Luka Sučić

A move to Red Bull Salzburg often bodes well for the future. Among the next crop of promising talents playing for the Austrian side is Luka Sučić, who last summer was heavily linked with a move to Liverpool as a Bellingham alternative. As it turned out, nothing transpired, with Sucic since enduring a campaign blighted with injury. Armed with five international caps, the 21-year-old midfielder, who cites Modric as his footballing role model, should make Croatia’s squad this summer unless something unfortunate comes to pass.

Croatia set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Luka Modric
  • Free kicks: Luka Modric
  • Corners: Luka Modric

Croatia tactical analysis and formation

Croatia team stats from qualifying (average per game):

  • Corners in qualifying: 5.9
  • Corners conceded: 6
  • Shots on target: 7.4
  • Shots on target conceded: 2.9
  • Offsides: 1.6

There should be no surprises regarding Zlatko Dalic and how Croatia will be set up. The bulk of his matches in charge has seen the Balkan nation line up in an orthodox 4-3-3 system with a single midfield pivot. Croatia is perhaps at their strongest there, with Luka Modric, Mateo Kovacic, and Marcelo Brozović all capable of affecting the game. However, it’s not a concrete triumvirate as Mario Pasalic, Lovro Majer, and Nikola Vlasic are options to be inserted there. Dalic has sometimes used a 4-2-3-1 or 4-1-4-1 while, on rare occasions, he’s gone with a back-three. During their Euro qualifiers, which saw them finish runners-up in Group D behind Turkey by a single point, they averaged 62.5% possession while boasting an 88.75% passing accuracy. Furthermore, the 2018 World Cup finalists averaged 39.88 ball recoveries per match.

Croatia Euro 2024 final squad

Dominik Livakovic Goalkeeper 29 Fenerbahce
Nediljko Labrovic Goalkeeper 24 Rijeka
Ivica Ivusic Goalkeeper 29 Pafos
Josip Stanisic Defender 24 Bayer Leverkusen
Marin Pongracic Defender 26 Lecce
Josko Gvardiol Defender 22 Man City
Martin Erlic Defender 26 Sassuolo
Josip Sutalo Defender 24 Ajax
Borna Sosa Defender 26 Ajax
Domagoj Vida Defender 35 AEK Athens
Josip Juranovic Defender 28 Union Berlin
Lovro Majer Midfielder 26 Wolfsburg
Mateo Kovacic Midfielder 30 Man City
Luka Modric Midfielder 38 Real Madrid
Marcelo Brozovic Midfielder 31 Al Nassr
Nikola Vlasic Midfielder 26 Torino
Mario Pasalic Midfielder 29 Atalanta
Luka Ivanusec Midfielder 25 Feyenoord
Luka Sucic Midfielder 21 Red Bull Salzburg
Martin Baturina Midfielder 21 Dinamo Zagreb
Andrej Kramaric Forward 32 Hoffenheim
Ivan Perisic Forward 35 Hajduk Split
Ante Budimir Forward 32 Osasuna
Bruno Petkovic Forward 29 Dinamo Zagreb
Marko Pjaca Forward 29 Rijeka
Marco Pasalic Forward 23 Rijeka

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