Premier League 2024-25 relegation odds: Who will drop to the Championship?
The 2024-25 Premier League is now at the wonderful festive period, and the relegation battle is getting interesting.
Last season, all three promoted sides were relegated as Luton Town, Burnley and Sheffield United had a brief stay in the top flight. As a trio they were poor, with even 18th-placed Luton finish six points behind Nottingham Forest, who had four points deducted.
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This time around, we have Leicester City and Southampton making immediate returns to the Premier League alongside Ipswich Town who, after back-to-back promotions, are playing in the top flight for the first time since 2001-02. They were the pre-season favourites to go down and remain the top/bottom three for odds right now. But they have been joined by a few familiar faces.
Who will be relegated from the Premier League in 2024-25?
Southampton
Last season’s play-off winners kick off the top three favourites to go down. And it hasn’t been a good start to life back in the Premier League. Goals have been Southampton’s main problem, scoring just 12 in their 20 matches so far. That’s converted to just one win and three draws.
With 16 defeats in total, the 5-0 loss to Tottenham Hotspur proved to be the last straw. Russell Martin was sacked by the board, with Southampton nine points from safety. Ivan Juric has come in to replace him but fortunes haven’t changed.
Only three sides in English Football League history have had fewer points from their first 22 games of a league season (assuming three pts/win) than Southampton this term (six), while their tally is the lowest by any side since 1975-76 when Sheffield United (top-flight) and Southport (fourth tier) also both had six.
Leicester City
Despite winning the Championship title, Leicester started the season as an odds-on favourite to go down. That is largely thanks to losing manager Enzo Maresca and key midfielder Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall to Chelsea.
The Foxes have been an interesting team this season, taking 14 points from 20 games despite going through low periods. Leicester have managed three wins so far, and a 2-1 defeat to Chelsea after the November international break proved to be the final straw for Steve Cooper. He has since been replaced by Ruud van Nistelrooy, who has taken four points from his first nine games. Seven consecutive defeats have Leicester two points from safety.
Ipswich Town
Playing in the Premier League for the first time since 2002 and off the back of a double promotion, it’s little surprise to see Ipswich Town among the big favourites for the drop. And it’s been a tough return to the Premier League for Ipswich.
The Tractor Boys have won three league games so far, getting their first victory in their 11th match, beating Tottenham ahead of the November international break. Their other two victories have come in Ipswich’s past six games, including a 2-0 win over Chelsea, their first home Premier League win for 22 years. But Ipswich have taken just one point from their three games since.
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Wolves
Many expected Wolves to do well this season. There were positive signs under Gary O’Neil last season, after the Englishman joined on the eve of the campaign’s start. Injuries eventually proved costly, and Wolves didn’t finish as high as they could have.
But this season they have seriously struggled. After 21 games, Wolves have taken 16 points, with just four wins. Those first two wins came in back-to-back matches against Fulham and Southampton. But they were brought back down to earth with a bang, losing their next four. A 2-1 defeat to Ipswich was a loss too many and O’Neil was sacked, replaced by Vitor Pereira. Things initially improved with seven points from Pereira’s first three games, but Wolves have since lost 3-0 against Forest and Newcastle.
Everton
Without their eight-point deduction, Everton would have finished 12th last season, behind Brighton but ahead of Bournemouth on goal difference with all three on 48 points. Moreover, the Toffees kept the second-most clean sheets in the league and conceded just 51 goals — only the top three boasted a better record. Even with their deduction, there was still a 14-point gap between Everton and the relegation zone last season.
Hopes were high that Everton would avoid the fight against relegation this time around. But the Toffees are still in the mix. They sit just one point clear of the drop zone after 20 matches and after parting ways with Sean Dyche, have brought David Moyes back to the club 11 years after he ended his first spell in charge. Moyes has a big job on his hands, which he will be well aware of even after their 3-2 win over Tottenham last time out.
Man City
Yes, that is Manchester City high up in the odds table. Now, we know Man City haven’t been good this season, losing six of their 20 games so far. But they’re still sixth. They’re not quite Chelsea 2015-16 yet. But on top of their poor form, a lot of people are keeping a close eye on the goings on away from the pitch regarding their charges. Some are obviously banking on a heavy punishment if they are proven guilty.
Crystal Palace
This was supposed to be Crystal Palace’s season. The Eagles had finished the 2023-24 campaign strongly under Oliver Glasner, and many expected it to continue. But Crystal Palace struggled at the start of the campaign.
The departures of Michael Olise and Joachim Andersen have been big. Olise’s absence in the attacking areas is particularly obvious, with the Eagles scoring just 25 goals in the league this season. All of that said, Arsenal are the only side to beat Palace in their last 13 games across all competitions and now, they’re 11 points clear of danger.
Man United
Manchester United have been utterly dreadful this season, under both Erik ten Hag and Ruben Amorim. They’re now 13th in the table after 22 games, which is incredible for a club of this stature.
The Red Devils have taken just four points from their last six Premier League matches, meaning they’re only 10 points off the relegation zone. Nobody actually expects Man United to go down but if they don’t put an end to this poor run soon, there will be a few sweating and look nervously over their shoulders.
