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Premier League title odds 2023/24: Man City remain strong favourites

By Dean Smith

Premier League title odds 2023/24: Man City early favourites to go four-in-a-row

Published: 8:00, 20 February 2024

Manchester City is searching for an unprecedented fourth consecutive Premier League title, but they are facing a tough battle. What do bookmakers make of each contender’s chances as we enter the second half of the season?

TEAM OPTA PROBABILITY TITLE ODDS
Man City 46.10% 9/10
Liverpool 38.59% 9/5
Arsenal 15.23% 7/2
Tottenham 0.04% 80/1
Aston Villa 0.04% 150/1
Man Utd 0% 250/1
Newcastle 0% 1000/1
You have to be 18+ to gamble. All odds within this article are accurate at the time of writing (08:00, 20/02/2024). BeGambleAware.

18+ only. New customers only. For verified UK clients only. The qualifying bet should start at £10 and have 1.5 or greater odds. Following the qualifying bet, you will receive 4 free bets that can be used one after another. Each free bet lasts for 7 days. Single bet only. Pre-Match or Live. No Cash-Out. Max payout – £500. BeGambleAware.org

Who are the favourites to win the Premier League in 2023/24?

Man City

The defending champions once again, Man City, were the clear favourites before the campaign started, as they always are. However, signs suggest they face a much harder time retaining their title this time around. After 22 games, Pep Guardiola’s side are second, two points behind the early leaders, albeit with a game in hand. Having won nine and lost two of their opening 11 games, Man City dropped points in a tricky period with draws against Chelsea, Liverpool and Tottenham and then suffered a defeat to Aston Villa.

More recently, City got themselves on a roll, winning seven and drawing two of their last nine Premier League matches. They still trail Liverpool by four points but have a game in hand on the Reds.

Liverpool

Liverpool were the league leaders heading into 2024, firmly putting their last season’s struggles behind them, and they still sit two points clear of City. However, two slip-ups against Arsenal — drawing 1-1 at home and losing 3-1 away — has allowed their two rivals to close the gap, and the Reds now know they’ll need a strong result when they play City in March if they’re to stay on top, and that’s notwithstanding any further slips in other matches.

18+ only. New customers only. For verified UK clients only. The qualifying bet should start at £10 and have 1.5 or greater odds. Following the qualifying bet, you will receive 4 free bets that can be used one after another. Each free bet lasts for 7 days. Single bet only. Pre-Match or Live. No Cash-Out. Max payout – £500. BeGambleAware.org

Arsenal

The nearly men of the 2022/23 season, for some time, it looked as though Arsenal would be ending their long wait for the Premier League trophy — a first since the Invincibles season of 2003/04. But in the end, Mikel Arteta’s men had to settle for second. While some predicted last season was a fluke, Arsenal are showing that they are here to stay. The Gunners have put a recent wobble behind them to win four games in a row, which includes eye-catching 6-0  and 5-0 wins away from home at West Ham and Burnley, respectively. Arsenal are also just two points behind Liverpool, though they’ve played the same number of games.

Aston Villa

Unai Emery is doing a fantastic job at Aston Villa, so seeing them in the title conversation shouldn’t be too surprising. However, any title bid has taken a hit recently. The Villans have dropped to fifth and are eight points behind leaders Liverpool. Emery’s side is on a run of just three wins from their last eight league matches, and now, it looks like their primary focus will be on trying to secure Champions League football.

PREMIER LEAGUE OPTA PROBABILITY RATINGS 2023/24

# TEAM TITLE % UCL % UEL % RELEGATION % CURRENT #
1. Man City 54.84% 99.81% 0.18% 0% 2.
2. Liverpool 41.35% 98.72% 0.26% 0% 1.
3. Arsenal 3.57% 92.31% 6.38% 0% 3.
4. Aston Villa 0.17% 56.84% 29.71% 0% 4.
5. Tottenham 0.07% 42.85% 37.77% 0% 5.
6. West Ham 0% 2.30% 7.47% 0% 6.
7. Brighton 0% 1.26% 4.25% 0% 7.
8. Man Utd 0% 1.84% 6.37% 0% 8.
9. Newcastle 0% 1.75% 6.06% 0% 9.
10. Chelsea 0% 0.30% 1.39% 0% 10.
11. Wolves 0% 0.02% 0.10% 0.11% 11.
12. Fulham 0% 0% 0% 3.18% 12.
13. Bournemouth 0% 0% 0.06% 0.59% 13.
14. Crystal Palace 0% 0% 0% 6.73% 14.
15. Brentford 0% 0% 0% 5.90% 15.
16. Luton 0% 0% 0% 32.60% 16.
17. Nottingham Forest 0% 0% 0% 33.85% 17.
18. Everton 0% 0% 0% 21.73% 18.
19. Burnley 0% 0% 0% 96.04% 19.
20 Sheff Utd 0% 0% 0% 99.27% 20.

 

Tottenham

Tottenham endured a miserable 2022/23 despite Harry Kane threatening Erling Haaland for the Golden Boot. Spurs finished eighth, an eye-watering 29 points behind champions Man City and embattled head coach Antonio Conte left before the campaign was done. In the summer, Ange Postecoglou was installed, and there was some initial scepticism about how the former Celtic boss would do. Well, the Australian made a great start to life in the dugout, but that was counterbalanced by a drop-off, with Tottenham taking just one point from a run of five games despite scoring first in each match. However, last time out, Tottenham succumbed to another loss against the Wolves, leaving them well off the pace.

18+ only. New customers only. For verified UK clients only. The qualifying bet should start at £10 and have 1.5 or greater odds. Following the qualifying bet, you will receive 4 free bets that can be used one after another. Each free bet lasts for 7 days. Single bet only. Pre-Match or Live. No Cash-Out. Max payout – £500. BeGambleAware.org

Man Utd

Manchester United may have finished in the top four last season and even counted in the title race at times, but there were far too many down moments for it to be serious. Although there was a trophy, it was a tough first season for Erik ten Hag, and the hope was that his second campaign would be better. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case so far.

The Red Devils are sixth with 13 wins from their opening 24 games, with 11 of their victories coming by a single-goal margin. But there have also been nine defeats, including losses to Tottenham, Arsenal, Man City and, most recently, Nottingham Forest. Thirteen points from five games against Spurs, Wolves, West Ham, Aston Villa and Luton definitely represents a step in the right direction.

Premier League outright odds: Other markets

You can bet on many more outright markets than just the Premier League winner. As well as backing a team to lift the famous trophy, many bookmakers offer markets such as To Finish Top Four, To Be Relegated, To Finish In The Top Half, Without the Big Six and even more player-specific markets such as the Top Scorer and the PFA Player of the Year winner.

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