Manchester City claimed the 2021/22 Premier League title on the final day, finishing one point ahead of Liverpool. What do bookmakers make of each contender’s chances so far this season?
Find the latest Premier League winner odds for the 2022/2023 season here:
Probability % provided by StatsPerform
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Who are the favourites to win the Premier League?
The last five Premier League titles have been shared between two clubs. The bulk of those (four) has been claimed by Manchester City who is seeking to become only the second team in the Premier League era to three-peat. Manchester United under legendary boss Sir Alex Ferguson managed this feat, which has eluded Pep Guardiola’s men, on two separate occasions. City was pushed to the limit last season and needed to register their third highest points total to fend off Liverpool who are set to once again be their biggest threat.
Jurgen Klopp’s side came agonisingly close to recording an unprecedented quadruple. The Reds have finished third or higher in each of the last four seasons, averaging 89.25 points per campaign, among this run was a championship which ended the club’s 30-year wait to be English football’s number one team. That honour is something Chelsea want to own again, under new ownership the Blues are seeking to end a six-year Premier League drought, they ended up best of the rest last time out but the gap to second-place Liverpool was a huge 18 points.
Rounding off the Champions League places was a reinvigorated Tottenham who last stood top of the pile in 1961, the Lilywhites possess two exemplary forwards in the guise of Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min, who last season became the first Asian footballer to finish as the league’s top scorer. A brace on the final day against Norwich saw Son move onto 22 strikes level with Mohamed Salah.
It’s been a while since a Manchester United player claimed the ‘Golden Boot’ though Cristiano Ronaldo put in a shift, the five-time Ballon d’Or winner is still expected to be part of new head coach Erik ten Hag’s plans, despite the club’s woeful start. Arsenal, meanwhile, were on the cusp of bringing Champions League football back to the Emirates but they fell short of the finish line. The league’s former ‘big two’ — when Sir Alex Ferguson and Arsene Wenger were pushing each other — are outsiders for this season’s championship.
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How have the teams started?
Manchester City began the campaign with a 2-0 win over West Ham and then beat Bournemouth 4-0 to remain perfect after two matches, before dropping their first points of the season against Newcastle, in a stunning 3-3 draw. They’ve since righted the ship on Matchday 4, with a 4-2 home win over Crystal Palace, in which Erling Haaland notched his first-ever Premier League hat trick. There was a second hat-trick in as many matches for Haaland as Man City then beat Nottingham Forest 6-0. He’s netted in further games against Aston Villa (1-1) and Wolves (3-0).
Things will get a bit trickier just before the league halts for the World Cup, with City taking on Man United, Arsenal and Liverpool in October, before returning on Boxing Day with an away trip to Leeds United. They ring in the New Year away to Chelsea, before locking horns with Man United, Wolves and Spurs.
April represents another difficult month as Liverpool and Arsenal lie in wait, while the penultimate match of the season could be a juicy one as City host potential title rivals Chelsea at the Etihad, before they finish up against Brentford. The ingredients are there for an exciting Premier League finale.
Things could have been a lot worse for Liverpool up against newly-promoted Fulham on the opening weekend of the season, but the Reds twice fought from a goal down to earn a point at Craven Cottage. They then had to battle back from a goal — and a man — down against Crystal Palace after Wilfried Zaha broke the deadlock at Anfield before Darwin Nunez inexplicably head-butted Joachim Andersen. A Luis Diaz screamer restored parity to claim what could prove a vital point. Klopp’s side then bounced back from defeat to Man Utd with a thunderous 9-0 demolition of Bournemouth at Anfield. There was another massive win against Newcastle shortly after, but they failed to trouble Everton in the first Merseyside Derby of the campaign, drawing 0-0 at Goodison Park before playing out an entertaining 3-3 draw at home against Brighton.
October represents a challenging month, with Arsenal, Man City, West Ham and Leeds all on the schedule, with pre-World Cup matchups with Spurs and Southampton to follow.
Boxing Day will see Liverpool clash with Steven Gerrard’s Aston Villa. However, the big month for Klopp’s crew is April, with Man City, Arsenal, Leeds away, West Ham away and Spurs all on the schedule, before a fairly straightforward run-in in May against Brentford, Leicester, Villa and Southampton away.
Arsenal have been emphatic this season and currently sit atop the Premier League table, a scenario almost completely at odds with their inauspicious start last campaign, in which they lost their opening three games. Indeed, the Gunners look the real deal, most recently putting North London rivals Tottenham to the sword in a 3-1 at home. New recruits Oleksandr Zinchenko, Gabriel Jesus and Fabio Vieira have all hit the ground running, collectively underlining the careful and meticulous work Mikel Arteta has been doing behind the scenes, and in front of the cameras.
The north Londoners are expected to be in the mix, owing to Conte’s reputation as a serial title winner and some good recruitment in the summer. They kicked things off with a 4-1 win over Southampton, after which they snagged a point in a London derby against Chelsea, before battling for a pair of wins against Wolves (1-0 at home) and Nottingham Forest (0-2, away). A draw with West Ham and a win over Fulham followed for Spurs, who also recently thumped Leicester and remain unbeaten in the league. October is a huge month for Spurs, after Arsenal they face Man United before wrapping things up for the World Cup break against Liverpool and Leeds.
Boxing Day is a potentially slippy tie against Brentford, before Conte sees out the year against Aston Villa. January will see them not venture past the M25 as they take on Crystal Palace, Arsenal at home and Fulham, with three tasty all-London affairs to start the New Year.
May appears relatively drama-free as they take on Palace, Villa, Brentford and Leeds, but before they even get to the league’s concluding month, they must face Newcastle away, Manchester United and Liverpool away in quick succession to round off April.
Premier League outright odds: Other markets
You can bet on many more outright markets than just the Premier League winner. As well as backing a team to lift the famous trophy, many bookmakers offer markets such as To Finish Top Four, To Be Relegated, To Finish In The Top Half, Without the Big Six and even more player specific markets such as the Top Scorer and the PFA Player of the Year winner.