We’ve nearly reached the end of the 2025/26 Premier League season and the top of the 2025-26 Premier League market sees Arsenal being backed as heavy favourites heading into the final week of the season.
Premier League title odds represent the likelihood of each team winning the Premier League, as estimated by sportsbooks. They’re part of the outright betting market, where you wager on season-long outcomes rather than individual matches.
Bookmakers use data models, expert judgment, and market forces to set these odds, with each odds offering an implied probability. Title odds, both fractional and decimal odds, are dynamic — they change as new information shifts the perceived probability of outcomes. Bookmakers adjust their Premier League outright odds weekly based on match results, injuries, and transfers. Understanding these shifts helps bettors spot early value.
Who are the favourites to win the Premier League in 2025-26?
After their huge victory over Arsenal in April, bookmakers currently make Man City favourites to win the league once more. It’s a two horse race at this point, without much to pick from between the two sides.
Arsenal
Arsenal have led the way for much of the season but, as has been the problem with Mikel Arteta’s side in recent seasons, they’ve struggled to get over the line. That looks to be a different story this season, with Arsenal holding the advantage heading into their final two games of the season.
Arsenal have finished second in each of the past three campaigns, averaging 82 points. It’s becoming a habit at the Emirates now and it’s something they were keen to put to bed this season. They weren’t afraid of spending money in the transfer market, with Martín Zubimendi, Noni Madueke and Viktor Gyökeres all coming through the door.
Zubimendi added stability to the midfield, allowing Declan Rice more freedom to get forward whilst Gyökeres strengthened the attack and Madueke added a competitive element to the wide areas.
The Gunners will be hoping that they are able to bounce back and find the results that prove to be the catalyst for their first Premier League title in over 20 years.
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Man City
Man City seem to have the knack for finding form at the right time, usually at the tail end of the season, and this year has proven to be follow a similar story. They’ve fallen short a little bit though and now need Arsenal to drop points in the final week, while also picking up maximum points themselves.
Kevin De Bruyne left the club after 10 years at the club but the arrivals of Rayan Cherki, Tijjani Reijnders, and Rayan Aït-Nouri marked a new tactical phase under Pep Guardiola.
City have won six of the last eight Premier League titles and are the only challengers to Arsenal’s chances of glory with just two games left.
It was, ultimately, a disappointing season for Man City last year, ending the season with no trophies and finishing third in the Premier League.
Premier League Relegation odds
In simple terms, the “relegation market” refers to betting markets on which teams will finish in the bottom places (or be relegated) at the end of the Premier League season (or conversely, which teams will avoid relegation). So in effect: you’re betting on which clubs end up in the bottom three (or equivalent) and/or which clubs survive.
Bookmakers set these odds based on a number of statistical, situational and behavioural factors. These include historical & underlying performance metrics, season-progress indicators and market behaviour.
Since the market is dynamic, odds do not remain static. They move because:
- A run of bad results will make relegation more likely.
- A string of good results.
- Injuries to key players, bad run-in of fixtures, or major off-field issues shift the risk.
- New information entering the marketplace (transfer window, managerial appointment/dismissal).
- Betting volume and public sentiment change, forcing bookies to rebalance their risk and exposure.
The Premier League relegation market initially saw the three promoted teams as favourites to be relegated, although that has changed slightly due to the factors listed above.
Wolves’ poor early season form seeing them as installed as favourites for the drop and they were unable to turn things around, with their return to the Championship being confirmed weeks ago.
Burnley will also be joining them, being relegated at the first time of asking after picking up just four wins all season.
The other side that will join Wolves and Burnley is still up for debate, with West Ham currently occupying the third relegation place. Tottenham hold a two point advantage over West Ham but that could be overturned by the Hammers if they win their final game and Tottenham lose both of theirs.
Premier League Top Goalscorer odds
The Golden Boot market allows bettors to wager on which player will finish as the top goalscorer in a competition. Bookmakers list odds for leading forwards and attacking midfielders, updating them throughout the season as players’ form and goal tallies change.
Unlike subjective markets (e.g. “Player of the Year”), the Golden Boot is purely data-driven — based on goals scored. While favourites (like Erling Haaland or Mo Salah) dominate, there’s strong appeal in finding value picks — players in form, new transfers, or penalty-takers priced longer than their goal output suggests.
Bookmakers and trading teams build probability models that estimate how many goals each player is expected to score over a season or tournament. These models are then converted into odds and refined as matches are played.
The foundation of a Golden Boot model is expected goals (xG) — a measure of the quality of chances a player gets. Once the base metrics are set, models simulate the season thousands of times — using random variation to account for luck and variance.
Erling Haaland’s odds of 1/1500 suggest a 99.9% implied chance of winning the Golden Boot and it would take a miraculous feat for Igor Thiago on the final day of the season for the Norwegian to not finish the season as the top scorer.
Premier League outright odds: Other markets
- To Finish Top Four
- This market predicts which teams will end the season in the Premier League’s top four — the positions that usually qualify for the Champions League. Odds are based on form, squad strength, fixture difficulty, and projected points totals across the season.
- This market predicts which teams will end the season in the Premier League’s top four — the positions that usually qualify for the Champions League. Odds are based on form, squad strength, fixture difficulty, and projected points totals across the season.
- To Finish Top Six
- Similar to the Top Four market, but covering the six highest positions in the league table. It includes Europa League qualification spots, with odds reflecting consistency, squad depth, and historical performance.
- Similar to the Top Four market, but covering the six highest positions in the league table. It includes Europa League qualification spots, with odds reflecting consistency, squad depth, and historical performance.
- To Finish in Top Half
- Bets on a team finishing 10th or higher. This market typically appeals to mid-table or promoted sides, with prices influenced by expected points, goal difference, and comparative squad value.
- Bets on a team finishing 10th or higher. This market typically appeals to mid-table or promoted sides, with prices influenced by expected points, goal difference, and comparative squad value.
- Without the Big Six
- A market that removes Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, and Tottenham from consideration. Bettors back which of the remaining clubs will finish highest in the table, effectively creating a “mini-league” among the rest.
- A market that removes Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, and Tottenham from consideration. Bettors back which of the remaining clubs will finish highest in the table, effectively creating a “mini-league” among the rest.
- Player awards (PFA Player of the Year)
- This market predicts who will win the Professional Footballers’ Association (PFA) Player of the Year award — voted for by fellow players. Odds factor in form, goal contributions, media influence, and team success across the season.
- This market predicts who will win the Professional Footballers’ Association (PFA) Player of the Year award — voted for by fellow players. Odds factor in form, goal contributions, media influence, and team success across the season.
- Manager of the Year
- Bets on which Premier League manager will be named Manager of the Year. Traders assess overachievement, league position versus resources, tactical impact, and narrative strength — rewarding both title winners and surprise overperformers.
These markets tend to fluctuate more dramatically than title odds due to tighter competition.
Upcoming Fixtures and Odds Movement
Upcoming fixtures often affect outright markets; tough consecutive games for title contenders can trigger rapid odds movement.
READ MORE:
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