The Premier League’s top four race in 2021/22 went to the wire on the final day as Tottenham pipped north London rivals Arsenal to the post. Will this season’s hunt for Champions League football be equally as dramatic?
Here are the latest Premier League top four odds for the 2022/2023 season:
Find the latest Premier League top four odds for the 2022/2023 season here:
Probability % provided by StatsPerform
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Manchester City and Arsenal are now expected to compete for the Premier League title this season, but behind them there is a lot going on. Just last season, Chelsea exhibited a dip in form towards the latter stages and could have been dragged into a pretty scrappy race for the top four, but ultimately got the job done. With their squad still very much in transition and struggling at the start of the season, there remains an element of uncertainty that they may not. Will a big team unexpectedly drop off a cliff in 2022/23? Let’s assess the candidates below.
The Premier League champions only looked to strengthen in the summer market, bringing in Erling Haaland, Julian Alvarez and Kalvin Phillips. A top-four finish, at this stage for City, is simply par for the course, a non-negotiable target that should be achieved long before the season is out, which may explain why Sky Bet are offering odds of 1/100 for them to get the job done.
Not only did Arsenal enter the season far from assured of a top-four finish, they, along with Man United, were expected to be on the outside looking in. However, upon entering the season, Mikel Arteta was drawing praise for assembling a youthful and far more resilient squad that combines style and substance. The expectation was that the Gunners would get better with time. That may still be the case, but with 16 wins from their first 19 games — their best ever league start to top the table — it is now time to seriously reassess Arsenal’s place in the pecking order.
Erik ten Hag became the fifth permanent manager of the post-Sir Alex Ferguson era in the summer and joined Old Trafford with a burgeoning reputation as an esoteric tactician, a man (supposedly) completely in tune with his playing philosophy and style of football. Man United fans are hopeful that he is the man to hoist the club up from the murk and make them a powerhouse once again. After an inauspicious start, Ten Hag recorded four wins on the bounce and claimed the scalps of Arsenal and Liverpool in the process, only losing that run in defeat to Man City. Fast forward a few months and Ten Hag has really changed the mood in the North West, consolidating Man Utd’s position in the top four, exacting revenge on Pep Guardiola, and reinventing Marcus Rashford as a consistent goal-getter.
Expected to muscle their way into the traditional ‘Big Six’, Newcastle are the nouveau riche kids on the block. With pockets deeper than the Pacific, Eddie Howe has the infinite wealth to build a squad capable of pushing up the table and genuinely challenging the current hegemony. The club made its biggest-ever transfer with the £60m acquisition of Alexander Isak from Real Sociedad. Isak joins Sven Botman and Nick Pope as the club’s most significant newcomers. The Magpies finished last season in a formidable fashion. That momentum, combined with literally limitless wealth could have them pushing for a top-four finish sooner than expected, and they are currently sitting in third but their odds lengthened slightly after drawing their of their last four games. They returned to successful ways after leaving it very late to beat Fulham but did drop points in a goalless draw with Crystal Palace.
To go from quadruple chasers to top-four scramblers would be quite the nosedive, hence Liverpool’s shorter odds to seal Champions League football once again, even after their poor start to the season. Last season’s runners-up have endured a tough first half of the campaign, taking until December to string more than two consecutive league wins together. In fact, they have won just eight of their opening 19 matches and recently saw a four-game winning streak come to an end in a 3-1 defeat to Brentford in which they were outplayed by their opponents. That was since followed up by another equally poor showing at Brighton, who ran out 3-0 winners, leaving manager Jurgen Klopp to describe it as the worst performance under his leadership.
The losing streak was brought to an end on Saturday with a goalless draw against Chelsea, but it did Klopp’s side no favours, potentially losing further ground in the race.
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Spurs did not mess about in the summer after Champions League football for 2022/23. Antonio Conte strengthened his squad with a cohort of established Premier League stars and several household names, including Ivan Perisic, Yves Bissouma, Richarlison and Djed Spence, while Clement Lenglet has come in on loan from Barcelona. They will be expected to be in and around the mix this campaign, but any hopes of a potential title challenge came crashing down as they were beaten by Man Utd and Newcastle in what was a collection of terrible performances. They showed their resolve either side of the World Cup break, coming from behind to beat Leeds and then drawing with Brentford having been 2-0 down. Further resilience was shown as Antonio Conte’s side thrashed Crystal Palace 4-0 to bounce back from a defeat to Aston Villa. However, that proved to be a false dawn, as they suffered yet another home loss against neighbours Arsenal. In a season of seesawing form for Spurs, thoughm their most recent win over Fulham has inched them up to just three points behind Man Utd.
Todd Boehly was busy in the summer trying to kickstart his reign as Chelsea owner with a bang, bringing in six potential game-changers in Raheem Sterling, Kalidou Koulibaly, Marc Cucurella, Wesley Fofana, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Denis Zakaria, while Andreas Christensen, Antonio Rudiger, Timo Werner and Romelu Lukaku all left, the latter on loan. They suffered a rocky start off the pitch with Thomas Tuchel sacked and replaced by Graham Potter, and the former Brighton manager looked to have them back on track. But Chelsea went winless in five league matches, including three successive defeats, only ending that run post-World Cup with a 2-0 victory over Bournemouth. Like Tottenham, though, progress has been halted by a draw with Nottingham Forest followed up by a loss to Fulham. Potter’s men would stop the rot with a slender 1-0 win over Crystal Palace, but like Liverpool their chances have fallen drastically following the goalless draw at Anfield.