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Premier League top four odds 2022/23: Can Arsenal end Champions League exile?

By Tom Dutton

Published: 18:25, 18 September 2022

The Premier League’s top four race in 2021/22 went to the wire on the final day as Tottenham pipped north London rivals Arsenal to the post. Will this season’s hunt for Champions League football be equally as dramatic?

Here are the latest Premier League top four odds for the 2022/2023 season:

Find the latest Premier League top four odds for the 2022/2023 season here:

Club Chance Paddy Power Sky Bet
Man City 99.75% 1/200 1/100
Arsenal 91.15% 1/4 1/4
Liverpool 86.56% 3/10 1/3
Chelsea 54.76% 8/5 10/11
Tottenham 53.17% 4/7 8/13
Brighton 9.25% 10/1 14/1
Man Utd 4.36% 7/5 13/8
Newcastle 0.48% 13/1 11/1
Leeds United 0.17% 150/1 150/1
West Ham 0.16% 20/1 66/1
Probability % provided by StatsPerform
You have to be 18+ to gamble. All odds within this article are accurate at the time of writing (12:00, 02/10/2022). BeGambleAware.

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Manchester City and Liverpool are all expected to compete for the Premier League title this season, but behind them there is a lot going on. Just last season Chelsea exhibited a dip in form towards the latter stages and could have been dragged into a pretty scrappy race for the top four, but ultimately got the job done. With their squad still very much in transition and struggling at the start of the season, there remains an element of uncertainty that they may not. Will a big team unexpectedly drop off a cliff in 2022/23? Let’s assess the candidates below.

Man City

The Premier League champions only looked to strengthen in the recently-closed summer market, bringing in Erling Haaland, Julian Alvarez and Kalvin Phillips. A top-four finish, at this stage for City, is simply par for the course, a non-negotiable target that should be achieved long before the season is out, which may explain why Paddy Power are offering odds of 1/200 for them to get the job done.


To go from quadruple chasers to top-four scramblers would be quite the nosedive, hence Liverpool’s short odds to seal Champions League football once again. The European finalists will be buoyed by Jurgen Klopp’s recent contract renewal and are expected to put up another serious Premier League title bid this season. There will also be the hope that their 9-0 drubbing of Bournemouth and comeback vs Newcastle is more indicative of what’s to come than their winless opening three games.


Not only did Arsenal enter the season far from assured of a top-four finish, they, along with Man United, were expected to be on the outside looking in. That being said, entering the season Mikel Arteta was drawing praise for assembling a youthful and far more resilient squad that combines style and substance. The expectation was that the Gunners would get better with time. That may yet be the case, but with six wins from their first seven games, and the likes of Martin Odegaard and newcomers Gabriel Jesus and Oleksandr Zinchenko impressing, it may be time to reassess Arsenal’s place in the pecking order.

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Spurs have not messed about since confirming Champions League football for 2022/23. Antonio Conte strengthened his squad with a cohort of established Premier League stars and several household names, including Ivan Perisic, Yves Bissouma, Richarlison and Djed Spence, while Clement Lenglet has come in on loan from Barcelona. They will be expected to be in and around the mix this campaign.


Todd Boehly was busy in the summer trying to kickstart his reign as Chelsea owner with a bang, bringing in six potential game-changers in Raheem Sterling, Kalidou Koulibaly, Marc Cucurella, Wesley Fofana, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Denis Zakaria, while Andreas Christensen, Antonio Rudiger, Timo Werner and Romelu Lukaku all left, the latter on loan. But now they must navigate the race with a new manager, as Graham Potter has been brought in to replace Thomas Tuchel following the German’s sacking.

Man United

Erik ten Hag has become the fifth permanent manager of the post-Sir Alex Ferguson era and he joins Old Trafford with a burgeoning reputation as an esoteric tactician, a man (supposedly) completely in tune with his playing philosophy and style of football. Man United fans will have been hopeful that he is the man to hoist the club up from the murk and make them a powerhouse once again. After an inauspicious start, Ten Hag has recorded four wins on the bounce and claimed the scalps of Arsenal and Liverpool in the process.


Expected to muscle their way into the traditional ‘Big Six’, Newcastle are the nouveau riche kid on the block. With pockets deeper than the Pacific, Eddie Howe has infinite wealth to build a squad capable of pushing up the table and genuinely challenging the current hegemony. The club made its biggest-ever transfer with the £60m acquisition of Alexander Isak from Real Sociedad. Isak joins Sven Botman and Nick Pope as the club’s most significant newcomers. The Magpies finished last season in formidable fashion. That momentum, combined with literally limitless wealth could have them pushing for a top-four finish sooner than expected.


Last season Brighton secured their highest-ever finish in the top flight of English football, continuing their growth under Graham Potter and it appears they aren’t done there. Although the Seagulls tasted defeat for the first time this season against Fulham, Brighton remain fourth having won four of their opening six matches.

One of the Brighton wins was the opening weekend victory over Manchester United at Old Trafford, a real statement to be made for Potter that was slightly overshadowed by the defeat for Ten Hag. It’s very early doors but Brighton haven’t given any real reasons as to why they can’t still be in the top four race towards the end of the campaign. Well, we’ll have to see how they manage post-Potter.



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