Premier League top four odds 2024-25: Who will qualify for the Champions League?
Finishing in the top four of the Premier League has become as valuable as a trophy nowadays.
With qualification to the Champions League on offer, clubs know there are vast riches to be gained by sneaking into those top spots.
Over the years, fans have grown so used to the Champions League spots consisting of four of Manchester City, Arsenal, Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur — the so-called ‘Big Six’. But in the past two seasons, both Aston Villa and Newcastle United have broken the hegemony.
This season’s race is incredibly close with third-placed Newcastle just one point ahead of Nottingham Forest in seventh. And fifth will be enough to secure Champions League football for next season, with England securing one of the two extra spots thanks to the showing to English teams in Europe.
Arsenal
Arsenal secured a top-five berth, guaranteeing Champions League football next season following a 1-0 win over Newcastle on the penultimate weekend. A point at Southampton on matchday 38 will secure a third consecutive second-place finish.
Man City
At the start of the season, it felt inconceivable that Man City would finish outside the top four. The only chance of that happening was surely going to be due to any deductions or demotions resulting from off-field issues. Man City have put themselves in a strong position, sitting third after 36 games. But dropped points against Southampton could have them in danger of dropping slightly.
Newcastle
Newcastle were hit by injuries arguably more than any other team in the major European leagues last season, and it showed, with seventh ultimately a pretty respectable return. Man Utd’s FA Cup win meant they missed out on Europe, but that may have been a temporary blessing in disguise. Newcastle are third, with one game remaining, and are level on points with fifth-place Aston Villa.
Chelsea
Chelsea finished five points outside the top four last season, and that was only due to Aston Villa easing off late in the campaign. But a top-four finish needs to be Chelsea’s goal each season, with the Blues not wanting to be stuck in the Conference League for longer than one campaign. Chelsea were considered title contenders at one point in the season, but they are now fighting for a top-four spot. The Blues have moved up to fourth place, level on points with fifth-place Aston Villa and Newcastle in third, with all three having one point more than Nottingham Forest in seventh.
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Nottingham Forest
What a story for Nottingham Forest this season! The Tricky Trees were fighting relegation last season, but Nuno Espirito Santo kept them safe. He joined midway through the campaign and ensured another year in the Premier League, even with a points deduction. This season, they are challenging for Europe. They were one of the favourites to finish in the top four, but three defeats from their past five have hurt their chances. They still have decent odds to finish in the top four, and even if they don’t, Forest have a chance to take the fifth Champions League spot. Forest sit a point behind fourth-placed Chelsea, with the pair facing off on the final day.
Aston Villa
Aston Villa were eliminated in the quarter-finals of the Champions League, but are now in contention to return to the competition. The Villans went on a five-match winning streak recently, before losing to Man City. They have since returned to winning ways and sit fifth, level on points with third.
Premier League top five probability
According to Opta Probability, Liverpool and Arsenal are the most likely Premier League teams to secure Champions League football this season, with a 100% chance, respectively. Many teams have seen their chances boosted by the extra Champions League spot.
| CLUB | Opta Probability |
| Liverpool | 100% |
| Arsenal | 100% |
| Man City | 85.90% |
| Newcastle | 83.55% |
| Chelsea | 56.84% |
| Aston Villa | 44.42% |
| Nottingham Forest | 29.29% |
