Premier League top four odds 2024-25: Who will qualify for the Champions League?
Finishing in the top four of the Premier League has become as valuable as a trophy nowadays.
With qualification to the Champions League on offer, clubs know there are vast riches to be gained by sneaking into those top spots.
Over the years, fans have grown so used to the Champions League spots consisting of four of Manchester City, Arsenal, Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham — the so-called ‘Big Six’. But in the past two seasons, both Aston Villa and Newcastle United have broken the hegemony.
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This season’s race is incredibly close with fourth-placed Man City just seven points ahead of Brighton and Hove Albion in 10th.
Liverpool and Arsenal
Embroiled in the title race, it will take something disastrous for both Liverpool and Arsenal to not finish in the top four.
Man City
At the start of the season, it felt inconceivable that Man City would finish outside the top four. The only chance of that happening was surely going to be down to any deductions or demotions due to off-field issues. They’ve struggled on the pitch too, but they do occupy fourth after 25 games.
Chelsea
Chelsea finished five points outside the top four last season, and that was only due to Aston Villa taking their foot off the pedal late in the campaign. But the top four needs to be the goal for Chelsea each season, with the Blues not wanting to be stuck in the Europa Conference League longer than one season. Chelsea had looked comfortable in the top-four race under Enzo Maresca but they’ve now dropped down to sixth after a run of just two wins from their past nine games –most recently losing 3-0 to Brighton and Hove Albion.
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Nottingham Forest
What a story for Nottingham Forest this season. The Tricky Trees were fighting relegation last season, but Nuno Espirito Santo kept them safe. He joined midway through the campaign and ensured another year in the Premier League, even with a points deduction. This season, they’re challenging for Europe.
Forest sit third after 25 games, four points clear of fifth. Only Liverpool and Arsenal have won more games than their 14.
Newcastle
Newcastle were hit by injuries arguably more than any other team in the major European leagues last season and it showed, with seventh ultimately a pretty respectable return. Man Utd’s FA Cup win meant they missed out on Europe, but that could be a temporary blessing in disguise. After 25 games played, Newcastle sit seventh after three defeats from their past four matches. It came at the end of a six-match winning streak.
Bournemouth
It wasn’t too long ago that Bournemouth were among those battling in the bottom half of the table. But now Andoni Iraola has them dreaming of Europe. The Cherries are fifth, just one point outside the top four. They recently went on an 11-game unbeaten run, which including wins over Tottenham, Man Utd, Newcastle and Nottingham Forest. The unbeaten run came to an end against Liverpool, but they’ve bounced back with another win.
Aston Villa
Aston Villa secured Champions League qualification for the first time since 1982-83 last season and have an exciting journey ahead of them. Unai Emery has worked wonders at the Midlands club so far, also reaching the Europa Conference League semi-finals. They’ll be dreaming of a second consecutive year at Europe’s top table. Indifferent form has Villa down in ninth, but they are only six points outside the top four. Things are extremely close in the top four race.
Premier League top four probability
According to Opta Probability, Liverpool are the most likely Premier League team to secure Champions League football this season with a 100% chance. By contrast, Ruben Amorim presides over a Man Utd side rated at just 0.02% likely to finish in the top four.
| CLUB | Opta Probability |
| Liverpool | 99.99% |
| Arsenal | 99.78% |
| Man City | 76.76% |
| Nottm Forest | 41.85% |
| Chelsea | 29.57% |
| Bournemouth | 28.42% |
| Newcastle | 19.92% |
| Aston Villa | 1.30% |
| Fulham | 1.20% |
| Brighton | 1.12% |
| Brentford | 0.05% |
| Tottenham | 0.03% |
