Outright Odds

Premier League top four odds 2022/23: Can Arsenal end Champions League exile?

By Tom Dutton

Published: 14:00, 16 August 2022

The Premier League’s top four race in 2021/22 went to the wire on the final day as Tottenham pipped north London rivals Arsenal to the post. Will next season’s hunt for Champions League football be equally as dramatic?

Here are the latest Premier League top four odds for the 2022/2023 season:

Find the latest Premier League top four odds for the 2022/2023 season here:

Club Chance Paddy Power Sky Bet
Man City 99.92% 1/200 1/100
Liverpool 99.68% 1/9 1/12
Tottenham 69.92%  4/9 4/9
Chelsea 71.82% 8/13 4/7
Arsenal 34.96% 5/6 4/6
Man Utd 8.87% 11/2 13/2
Newcastle 4.88% 15/2 7/1
Aston Villa 2.03% 16/1 25/1
Brighton 2.02% 20/1 22/1
West Ham 1.81% 25/1 22/1
Probability % provided by StatsPerform
You have to be 18+ to gamble. All odds within this article are accurate at the time of writing (13:00, 16/08/2022). BeGambleAware.

Manchester City, Liverpool, Tottenham and Chelsea are all expected to compete for the Premier League title this season, but in football nothing is guaranteed. The Blues exhibited a dip in form towards the latter stages of last season and could have been dragged into a pretty scrappy race for the top four, but ultimately got the job done. With their squad still very much in transition, there remains an element of uncertainty, comparable with the level of excitement Todd Boehly has brought to west London. Will any of them unexpectedly drop off a cliff in 2022/23? Let’s assess the candidates below.

Man City

The Premier League champions have only looked to strengthen this summer, bringing in Erling Haaland, Julian Alvarez and Kalvin Phillips — plus whomever else Pep Guardiola fancies. A top-four finish, at this stage for City, is simply par for the course, a non-negotiable target that should be achieved long before the season is out, which may explain why Paddy Power are offering odds of 1/200 for them to get the job done.


To go from quadruple chasers to top-four scramblers would be quite the nosedive, hence Liverpool’s short odds to seal Champions League football once again. The European finalists will be buoyed by Jurgen Klopp’s recent contract renewal and are expected to put up another serious Premier League title bid this season, despite their winless start after two games.


Todd Boehly has been busy this summer trying to kickstart his reign as Chelsea owner with a bang, bringing in two potential game-changers in Raheem Sterling and Kalidou Koulibaly, while Andreas Christensen, Antonio Rudiger and Romelu Lukaku have all left, the latter on loan. Despite a summer of upheaval, bookies are backing the Blues to have few issues securing Champions League football once again.

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Spurs have not messed about since confirming Champions League football for 2022/23. Already Antonio Conte has strengthened his squad with a cohort of established Premier League stars and several household names, including Ivan Perisic, Yves Bissouma, Richarlison and Djed Spence, while Clement Lenglet has come in on loan from Barcelona. They will be expected to be in and around the mix this campaign.


Close but no cigar in the end for Arsenal. Mikel Arteta has drawn widespread praise for assembling a youthful Arsenal squad and making the club more resilient, combining style and substance rather than just the former. The Gunners will only get better with time, as Arteta’s band of fledgling stars gain more experience, and there is genuine hope they could produce something special this season given their strong transfer window, pre-season and early start, recently beating Leicester 4-2. Gabriel Jesus and Oleksandr Zinchenko have both impressed early in the season, so too has returning loanee William Saliba.

Man Utd

Erik ten Hag has become the fifth permanent manager of the post-Sir Alex Ferguson era and he joins Old Trafford with a burgeoning reputation as an esoteric tactician, a man (supposedly) completely in tune with his playing philosophy and style of football. Man Utd fans will have been hopeful that he is the man to hoist the club up from the murk and make them a powerhouse once again. But it appears it may be tougher than it looks, as Man Utd are currently bottom of the Premier League, losing both of their opening two matches.


Expected to muscle their way into the traditional ‘Big Six’, Newcastle are the nouveau riche kid on the block. With pockets deeper than the Pacific, Eddie Howe has infinite wealth to build a squad capable of pushing up the table and genuinely challenging the current hegemony. So far, it’s been fairly quiet on the transfer front on Tyneside, with Sven Botman and Nick Pope the club’s only two major incomings, but there’s still time to distort the market with eye-watering bids, while the Magpies finished last season in formidable fashion so could push for the top four regardless.

West Ham

The Hammers would have felt like the next closest club to breaking the top-six ceiling, having made rapid progress under David Moyes. That assessment has been well and truly put to bed by Newcastle’s Saudi-led takeover, though. Still, Moyes is a methodical coach who has got the best out of his relatively skeletal squad. A big summer was needed from West Ham, and they’ve made some shrewd investments in Gianluca Scamacca and Nayef Aguerd, with more expected to turn up at Rush Green.

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Aston Villa

The Villans have not messed about this transfer window. The permanent signings of Philippe Coutinho, Boubacar Kamara and Diego Carlos have given genuine hope that Villa mean business and can genuinely ask questions of the Premier League’s upper slopes. There are certainly worse players to buy and they got their first win against Everton on Saturday after a poor start vs Bournemouth.



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