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Premier League top four odds 2023/24: Who will finish in the Champions League places?

By Tom Dutton

Premier League top four odds 2023:24- Who will finish in the Champions League places?

Published: 8:30, 20 February 2024

We’re in a new era of the Premier League, with more than just the usual clubs being seriously in with a chance of qualifying for the Champions League.

Over the years, fans have grown so used to the Champions League spots consisting of four of Manchester City, Arsenal, Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham — the so-called ‘Big Six’. But last season, only three of those made it, with Newcastle being the first to break the hegemony since Leicester City in 2015/16.

It wasn’t just Newcastle challenging either; Brighton looked to be climbing the table, while Aston Villa were also close. Liverpool finished fifth, Tottenham eighth and Chelsea down in 12th. So the latter pair don’t have any European football this season to hamper their quests to return to the top table, meaning there were higher expectations.

There is also the caveat that the Premier League could have an extra Champions League spot up for grabs, turning the top four into a top five, given the new format for next season. For now, though, four are guaranteed, so how is the race looking so far?

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Here are the latest Premier League top-four odds for the 2023/2024 season:

TEAM OPTA PROBABILITY TOP FOUR ODDS
Man City 99.92% 1/100
Liverpool 99.83% 1/100
Arsenal 99.27% 1/50
Tottenham 34.25% 1/1
Aston Villa 53.98% 27/20
Man Utd 10.58% 7/2
Newcastle 1.05% 28/1
Chelsea 0.17% 33/1
Brighton 0.86% 66/1
West Ham 0.05% 250/1
You have to be 18+ to gamble. All odds within this article are accurate at the time of writing (08:00, 20/02/2024). BeGambleAware.

PREMIER LEAGUE OPTA PROBABILITY RATINGS 2023/24

# TEAM TITLE % UCL % UEL % RELEGATION % CURRENT #
1. Man City 54.84% 99.81% 0.18% 0% 2.
2. Liverpool 41.35% 98.72% 0.26% 0% 1.
3. Arsenal 3.57% 92.31% 6.38% 0% 3.
4. Aston Villa 0.17% 56.84% 29.71% 0% 4.
5. Tottenham 0.07% 42.85% 37.77% 0% 5.
6. West Ham 0% 2.30% 7.47% 0% 6.
7. Brighton 0% 1.26% 4.25% 0% 7.
8. Man Utd 0% 1.84% 6.37% 0% 8.
9. Newcastle 0% 1.75% 6.06% 0% 9.
10. Chelsea 0% 0.30% 1.39% 0% 10.
11. Wolves 0% 0.02% 0.10% 0.11% 11.
12. Fulham 0% 0% 0% 3.18% 12.
13. Bournemouth 0% 0% 0.06% 0.59% 13.
14. Crystal Palace 0% 0% 0% 6.73% 14.
15. Brentford 0% 0% 0% 5.90% 15.
16. Luton 0% 0% 0% 32.60% 16.
17. Nottingham Forest 0% 0% 0% 33.85% 17.
18. Everton 0% 0% 0% 21.73% 18.
19. Burnley 0% 0% 0% 96.04% 19.
20 Sheff Utd 0% 0% 0% 99.27% 20.

 

Man City

At this point, Manchester City finishing in the top four is a formality. They haven’t failed to qualify for the Champions League since 2009/10, only finishing lower than second three times. The defending European champions, Man City, are second with 52 points from 23 games, most recently stringing together six wins from their past six games, including a 3-2 thriller against Newcastle in which they trailed at half-time. Pep Guardiola’s side has now won more points from losing positions in their opening 24 matches (18) than in the 2022/23 campaign (10).

Liverpool

Last season wasn’t good enough for Liverpool, even though they only finished four points outside the top four. The Reds were seriously struggling at times and only clawed things back thanks to a fine run towards the end of the campaign. That season has well and truly been put behind them. The Reds are two points clear at the top of the table, losing twice all season. Jurgen Klopp has announced that he will leave at the end of the season, but that news hasn’t affected the Liverpool players.

Arsenal

There will have been some doubting Arsenal’s credentials to carry their momentum from last season, as they went so close to the Premier League title. The Gunners had enjoyed such a stark change in their performances that some called it a fluke. But Arsenal and Mikel Arteta are showing that it is not, rather being the start of something potentially big. After 24 games, Arsenal are third with 52 points, and they’ve bounced back from consecutive defeats to West Ham and Fulham by going on a five-game winning streak.

Tottenham

Tottenham entered the season uncertain about how they would do in Ange Postecoglou’s first campaign in the Premier League. They also lost Harry Kane in the summer, making the task harder for the Australian. But they have been brilliant, playing attacking football fans have been craving and getting the results from it. It hasn’t all been perfect, with Tottenham suffering a rocky patch of one point from six Premier League games, but they have won five of their next nine games.

Newcastle

The mega-rich Tynesiders had hoped to have dismantled the ‘Big Six’. But they are struggling this season. The Magpies are ninth with 10 defeats from their opening 23 games, already double their losses from last season. Newcastle recently suffered a four-game losing streak, including a loss to Luton. Still, they stopped the rot with a massive 3-1 win over Aston Villa, and they followed a 4-4 thriller against Luton with an equally entertaining 3-2 win at Nottingham Forest before Bournemouth held them to a 2-2 draw.

Aston Villa

Aston Villa finished strongly last season to secure European football, but how would they fare in Unai Emery’s first full campaign in charge? The answer turned out to be pretty well. The Villans had been counted among the title race, sometimes leading the table. They did slow down slightly with just one win from five, which saw Villa drop to fifth, but a 5-0 win over Sheffield United lifted them back into the top four, where they currently lie following a 2-1 win at Fulham which came after losing 2-0 to Man Utd at home.

Man Utd

Erik ten Hag had a bit of a weird maiden campaign at Old Trafford, winning the EFL Cup, reaching the FA Cup final and getting Man Utd back into the top four, all while still feeling as though something was missing. And that may be showing in his second season. The Red Devils have been underwhelming this season, losing nine of their opening 22 matches. A comeback 3-2 victory over Aston Villa on Boxing Day ended a three-game winless run (one draw and two losses), but they were unable to build on that, falling to a 2-1 defeat to Nottingham Forest before drawing 2-2 at home to Spurs. Back-to-back-to-back wins over Wolves, West Ham, Aston Villa and Luton have reignited their season.

Brighton

Another team hoping to break into the top four are Brighton, who secured European football for the first time last season. But they, too, are struggling to match their performances from the previous campaign, currently seventh, 11 points outside the top four. Too many draws have been the season’s story so far for the Seagulls, who have drawn eight times in the Premier League — more than any other side. They also suffered a humiliating 4-0 defeat at the hands of Luton and stumbled to a 2-1 loss at Tottenham, but last time out, they ran out 5-0 winners at Sheffield United.

18+ only. New customers only. For verified UK clients only. The qualifying bet should start at £10 and have 1.5 or greater odds. Following the qualifying bet, you will receive 4 free bets that can be used one after another. Each free bet lasts for 7 days. Single bet only. Pre-Match or Live. No Cash-Out. Max payout – £500. BeGambleAware.org

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