Correct Score Tips
Get the inside track with our Correct Score tips, covering today & upcoming fixtures in the Premier League and the rest of the world.Sorry, but there are currently no tips for the current league "Correct Score Tips", but you can check out our tips for other leagues below.
IcelandWales
Brennan Johnson has been a revelation at Spurs this season and is enjoying a rich vein of form. The Welshman has scored in all of his last six appearances for his club side, most recently finding the net in Tottenham’s 3-2 defeat to Brighton on Sunday. Confidence is high for Johnson at the moment, and he looks a very backable price to take his purple patch into the international break and find the net for Craig Bellamy’s side.
HungaryNetherlands
Hungary have failed to score in four of their last five matches, with their last goal coming in the Euros against Scotland. In the most recent international break, Hungary were beaten 5-0 by Germany and played out a 0-0 draw with Bosnia. The Netherlands, on the other hand, won 5-2 against Bosnia in September and also played a 2-2 draw with Germany. Koeman’s side boasts an excellent away record in the UEFA Nations League, having won all of their last four on the road.
HungaryNetherlands
Will Orban should have his work cut out at the heart of the Hungarian defence on Friday as he looks to nullify Brian Brobbey, Cody Gakpo, and Xavi Simmons. For RB Leipzig this season, he has been booked twice, while at international level, he has seen yellow in three of his last nine competitive outings.
IcelandWales
Johann Gudmundsson swapped Burnley for Saudi Arabia at the start of the season, and the midfielder is set to captain his national side on Friday as he makes his 96th cap. Gudmundsson has committed at least one foul in four of his five internationals, with totals of 2.1,1,0,4. He gave away two against Montenegro and one against Turkey in the most recent international break, and with Sky Bet having this same selection priced at just 3/10, the 10/11 with SBK looks an excellent price.
CroatiaScotland
Alongside their agonising defeats comes the fact that Scotland have conceded the last goal in each of their two Uefa Nations League matches so far. In fact, Scotland have conceded the last goal in eight of their nine games across all competitions in 2024. At the same time, Croatia have scored the last goal in their two Uefa Nations League matches.
CroatiaScotland
Croatia's win over Poland extended their unbeaten run in their home country to three matches. Scotland, meanwhile, haven't won a competitive game outside of Scotland since a 3-0 win over Cyprus in September 2023. Since then, Scotland have lost five games and drawn once.
SpainDenmark
Since a 1-0 defeat to Colombia at the start of 2024, Spain have won nine of their 12 matches across all competitions. The three draws do also include an extra-time win over Germany at Euro 2024, which will have settled as a draw for betting purposes. But Spain have conceded in five of their past six matches.
SpainDenmark
Denmark's two games in the Uefa Nations League so far have seen four goals scored. Of those four goals, three have come in the second half of their matches.
PolandPortugal
Portugal won both international outings in September with 2-1 victories over Scotland and Croatia. Roberto Martinez’s men are fancied to get the job done and Poland have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last seven across all formats. Poland have a strong home record when it comes to finding the net. They have scored at least one goal in all their last 11 matches across all competitions. Bruno Fernandes was booked on his most recent international outing and has already been sent off for Manchester United this term. Regarding fouls, he has conceded at least one in all of his last eight for Portugal.
PolandPortugal
Ronaldo may be better known for his goal-scoring prowess, but at 17/2, he simply looks too big a price to record an assist against a Poland side that is far from watertight at the back. Ronaldo managed an assist at the Euros in the summer and has 18 in his international career. Sky Bet go just 7/2, and Paddy Power 4/1 he manages another in this game, so take the 17/2 on show with BetMGM.
SerbiaSwitzerland
Aleksandar Mitrovic can be a handful for defenders and with the result of this game looking tricky to predict, taking a punt on the Serbian attacker in the ‘fouls won’ market looks a nice angle. The former Fulham and Newcastle man has been fouled at least twice in six of his last nine appearances for Serbia with totals of: 3,2,2,0,4,0,1,3,2.
SerbiaSwitzerland
Breel Embolo may have only recorded two assists last season for Monaco, but he has already matched this total after just four appearances this season. The 27-year-old also turned provider on his most recent international outing against Spain, making three assists in his last five for club and country. Sky Bet go just 5/1 he assists on Saturday, giving plenty of appeal to the 23/2 that is available with BetMGM.
New Betting Sites for Correct Score Betting
This offer is for new customers only, and your qualifying bet must be made with a stake of £10+ within seven days of sign-up, at minimum odds of 1/1 (2.0). You will then receive 4 Free bets in the form of 1x £10 Football Free Bet, 1x £10 Acca, 1x Football Bet Builder, and a £10 Horse Racing Free Bet. Please note that the stake is not returned from Free Bets, and they will expire after seven days if not used. Exclusions and T&Cs apply.
Midnite
- Welcome Bonus
18+ New customers only. Bet £10+ on pre-match accas with 4+ legs, min odds 3/1 (4.0) within 14 days of sign-up. Get 4x £5 Free Bets and 50 Free Spins, valid for 7 days on selected bets and games only. Restrictions and T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org
CopyBet
- Exclusive Offer
- Welcome Bonus
Full T&Cs apply. New UK customers only. The qualifying bet should be either a Single or Acca (2+ selections) bet, start at £10, have 1.9 or greater odds and must be settled within 7 days of sign-up. 5 Free bets which must be placed with a min odds of 2 include: 1 x £10 Free bet on any Pre-match Football game (single); 1 x £10 Free Bet for Horse Racing (single); 1 x £10 Free Bet for Acca (min 2 selections) Bet on any sport; 1 x £10 Free Bet for Acca (min 3 selections) Bet on any sport; 1 x £10 Free Bet for Acca (min 4 selections) Bet on any sport. Max payout – £500. 7 day expiry. To unlock the offer, complete the first deposit via the banking app (Open banking). 18+. GambleAware.com
New UK customers only. Min £10 first deposit using Debit Card or Bank Transfer. Place a bet of £10 at min odds of 2.0 and get a £10 Football Bet Builder token upon settlement. A £10 Multiple token, a £5 Horse Racing Multiple token and a £5 Football Bet Builder token will be credited after 24 hours. A further £10 Free Bet token will be credited 48 hours after the qualifying bet has been settled. Full T&Cs apply, 18+. GambleAware.org.
18+ New customers only. Min/max stake £1. Free bets credited on top of winnings within 72 hours. First single & e/w bet only. 5 x £10 bet tokens. Free bet stakes not included in returns. Free bets exclude virtuals. Free bets are non-withdrawable. Free bets expire after 30 days. Eligibility restrictions and further T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org
Bet365
- Exclusive Offer
- Welcome Bonus
New Customers only Bet £10* & Get £30* in Free Bets. Sign up, deposit between £5* & £10* to your account & bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value & they are settled. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet & payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply.
Welcome Offer: New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. T&Cs Apply. Acca Club: T&Cs Apply. Promo runs Mon 09:00 to Sun 23:59. Opt-in required. 50% profit boost on 7+ Acca selections. Max stake £20. Max winnings £1,000. Up to 5 boosts per customer per week. Exclusions apply.18+ GambleAware.org.
Correct Score Predictions & Tips
The correct score market is one of the most popular derived markets for bettors to play on when betting on football.
This guide will provide a bettor with tips, strategies, and information to use when playing this market in football.
What factors influence the accuracy of correct score predictions in football?
There are so many factors that influence how accurate a correct score prediction is in football. At Squawka Bet we use a lot of analytical factors to narrow down the way that a match is likely to play out in an attempt to narrow down the market before a decision is made as to whether or not a correct score bet is appropriate to make.
Much success has been had with this approach and it is often when the goal expectation for a match is quite low that success is had with this market as that can allow us to pinpoint only a couple of scores to bet on.
How We Create Correct Score Predictions & Tips
Squawka’s correct score plays are generated based upon a number of factors. If it is possible to predict the flow and tactical approach of the match then it makes it easier to visualise how the score may materialise.
For example, there may be a match where the home team plays a possession-based game and the away side are a typically defensive side. This kind of tactical match-up being known before the match will tell us how the game might look to play out, and, depending on the recent success of teams playing with these tactics we can narrow down our focus onto which scorelines might suit the setup of that match the best.
We are also able to assess likely team news and work out which players might have an affect on the game, i.e. is the top scorer available? Will the key providers be playing to supply the chances? Is there a key defender out in either team? Will the teams persist with their first choice goalkeepers?
It is also important to assess the fixture in terms of where it falls in the calendar, i.e. has either team had an advantage of an extra day off between fixtures? Does either team have a motivation advantage of having something important to play for? Does one team have a distraction on the horizon?
One thing that can be taken into account, but needs to be done carefully, is historical meetings between the sides. Often this data can be too old to be relevant, but if there has been a powerful trend, or if there has been a relatively recent meeting in similar circumstances then this can be a fairly useful guide.
All of the above, plus other factors, is built into a model that can inform as to which scores are potentially most likely and this information is then compared to the bookmaker prices in an attempt to find some discrepancies, and, therefore, value bets.
Can weather conditions significantly alter the expected outcome of a football match?
Often the most significant weather factor to bear in mind for the match is the wind. Some areas of the country, and especially some stadiums, are infamous for how the wind can affect matches.
This often provides a good in-play angle if the wind is having an impact on play. This more often occurs in less built-up stadiums where the wind can get in over the stands, but can even have an effect in major Premier League games as well.
An example of this type of bet may be something like betting on a 2-2 draw when the team benefitting from the wind is 2-0 up at half-time.
Key Football Betting Terms and Definitions
Before we go into an analysis of correct score betting, it is important to define some key terms used in the football betting sphere.
Odds: The odds are simply the price at which the bookmaker will take a wager on a specific outcome. The most simple example of odds would be Evs, or, even money. This means that whatever the bettor has staked on an outcome, the bookmaker would pay the bettor the same return if the bet wins.
Stake: The amount of money that a bettor places on the outcome of an event.
Accumulator: When a bettor wants to place a bet on more than one thing to happen, the bets can be combined to create a multiple, also known as an accumulator. This is so called because the odds of each single event are multiplied together to create a much larger odds bet.
Bet Builder: This is a relatively young term for the football betting industry, but it is fairly simple to explain. A bet builder is a type of bet where a bettor can combine different events within a single match to bet on as a multiple i.e. combining a result, card betting, corner betting, individual player statistics etc.
How to analyse a football team’s performance?
When assessing a match-up Squawka Bet will bring a number of factors together to form an overall picture of the event.
The most obvious factors to look at are the two teams’ recent data. This will take the form of recent results, recent home and away results for the respective home and away teams, but also, and potentially more importantly, the performance of the two teams as well.
This means that where a team may have good results in recent weeks, or a few good away wins, we have to assess the repeatability of that form. If those wins have come by a single goal and the pattern of the matches were that the team were facing a lot of high quality chances, and barely creating anything themselves, then that would suggest that there has been an element of good fortune to their recent success.
In the modern football analysis world, this is often referred to as expected goals (xG) analysis. At Squawka Bet we are able to use advanced metrics such as post-shot xG, expected threat (xT), and on-ball value (OBV) to add greater depth to the analysis of previous matches in order to get a deeper picture of the match that is being previewed.
All of this analysis then helps to paint a picture of how the match could potentially look on the pitch. Factors such as player availability and team news then also play a role closer to the match as this may affect the tactical approaches or the quality of the team that will take to the pitch.
How do bookmakers calculate the odds for correct score bets?
Bookmakers base their calculations for almost all markets on only a couple of actual numbers, though a lot does go into the calculation of those numbers.
The key numbers for a bookmaker are the relative strengths of the teams taking to the field, which produces a single number biased towards one side or the other depending on how the various algorithms calculate the potential outcome of the match i.e. which team is the favourite to win and by how much.
The other key number is the goal line. Again, many factors come into play for the calculations of this number, but essentially, a number will be derived for how many goals are expected to be in the match. This number is very rarely a round number, as, although it is impossible to get 2.35 goals in a match, this is simply the result of hundreds of calculations into an expected average.
These numbers are then used to derive the odds for all of the markets that affect the match, with correct score being one of the chief among them.
For example, when there is a heavy favourite in a game, the team strength bias and the number of goals bias will mean that the prices for score lines such as 3-0, 4-0, 5-0 etc. will be much shorter than they are for a close match between two defensively strong teams, in which 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 will be priced up differently.
Bettors should also be aware that there is something called an overround that is built into the market by the bookmakers. This overround is there to protect the bookmaker and give them a built-in margin in order to trade a profit.
The overround tends to be fairly small in markets such as match odds, which are usually priced to between 3-8% for most well-known matches, but a correct score market can often produce overrounds of over 30%.
An example of this would be the Coventry vs Manchester United FA Cup semi-final in 2024. The number of potential scores covered by prices up to 66/1 was 20, and the calculation of the market produced by one particular bookmaker was 131.54%, which meant that the bookmaker had an over 30% profit margin built into the market.
This does not mean that the bettor cannot make a value selection, it just means that the bookmaker is protecting itself more in this market due to the higher prices and the greater variety of outcomes.
Do betting odds reflect public sentiment towards a match’s outcome?
Bookmakers’ odds can adapt to public sentiment. The most obvious examples will come in an international setting where a home nations team may be adjusted in their price because of the prior knowledge of how the public will bet on a particular outcome i.e. England may be slightly shorter (stronger favourites) in many markets because of the volume of money that will be on them regardless of price.
How Player Fitness and Injuries Affect Score Predictions
Correct scores are one market that can be heavily affected by the loss of a particular player from a team.
A well-known, top quality centre forward being missing from a team, especially when that forward is in good form, can have a negative impact on both the team strength bias and the total goals bias of a team i.e. Josh Sargent has had a huge impact for Norwich this season in terms of goals and points per game when he has been named in the starting XI. Similar players could be Dominic Solanke for Bournemouth or even Harry Kane for England, and even, Bayern.
Common Mistakes in Correct Score Betting
Often bettors will make mistakes in the way that they analyse teams’ past results when trying to predict correct scores.
One factor that is often overplayed is a head-to-head record. In leagues in which teams only play each other twice a season, home and away, there hasn’t been an equivalent game of the one that is being bet on for a year. Therefore the data that is generated in previous matches is very much out-of-date.
Even something that seems very relevant, such as a run of results like 1-0 in the last three times this match has been played, may seem really important, but is often a red herring.
There is also a tendency in correct score betting to hedge prices. This means that instead of betting on one outcome, the bettor will bet on a number of outcomes to try and win one of the bets and achieve a profit.
This can be a useful technique if you are very confident on the way the game will go. However, if hedging is being used because the bettor is very uncertain of the direction of the match then it is a very bad technique, and gives a lot of margin to the bookmaker.
The Psychology of Betting
It is a tenet for the whole of betting as a bettor, every stake that is gambled should be a calculated decision and one that the bettor is comfortable with.
Do not bet on correct scores if, as a bettor, you are not prepared to potentially lose that stake. The odds of the correct score market are such that the percentage of winning bets is very low, even if the strategy that is being employed is a sound one.
A lot can go wrong with correct score betting, a refereeing decision, a bad miss, an own goal, a late goal, a consolation effort, a lack of effort from a team that is either too far in front or too far behind. All of this should be borne in mind when playing the correct score market.
Finally, remember, the correct score market is usually a bet on which the teams you are betting on do not care about. In the win/draw/loss market, the teams absolutely care about the outcome, but usually there is little consequence about winning by one goal or by three. This is always an inherent risk with this type of betting.
Legal and Ethical Considerations in Betting
Legal and ethical considerations in betting are crucial aspects that intersect with various societal, economic, and legal frameworks. Here are some key points to consider:
Legal Considerations:
- Regulatory Compliance: Betting activities are subject to regulation by governmental bodies in most jurisdictions. This includes obtaining licences, adhering to anti-money laundering laws, and ensuring compliance with age restrictions.
- Gambling Laws: Different countries and regions have their own laws regarding gambling and betting. These laws may vary significantly, ranging from outright bans to strict regulations.
- Online Betting: With the advent of online betting platforms, there are additional legal considerations, such as compliance with internet gambling laws, data protection regulations, and cybersecurity measures.
- Taxation: Betting winnings may be subject to taxation depending on the jurisdiction. Understanding tax obligations is essential for both bettors and betting operators.
- Consumer Protection: Legal frameworks often include provisions aimed at protecting consumers from fraudulent practices, ensuring fair play, and providing mechanisms for dispute resolution.
Ethical Considerations:
- Problem Gambling: One of the most significant ethical concerns is the potential harm associated with gambling addiction. Betting operators have a responsibility to implement measures to prevent and address problem gambling, such as self-exclusion programs and responsible gambling initiatives.
- Transparency and Fairness: Ethical betting practices entail ensuring transparency in odds, fair competition, and preventing insider trading or manipulation of outcomes.
- Underage Gambling: Preventing underage individuals from participating in betting activities is crucial. Betting operators must implement strict age verification processes to ensure compliance with age restrictions.
- Advertising and Marketing: Ethical considerations extend to the advertising and marketing of betting services, especially concerning targeting vulnerable populations and promoting responsible gambling behaviours.
- Social Impact: Betting can have significant social impacts, including financial strain on individuals and families, as well as broader societal consequences such as crime and corruption. Ethical betting practices involve mitigating these negative impacts through education, support services, and community engagement.