Kansas City Chiefs Odds & Predictions
Squawka Signal’s projected line and win probability for every Chiefs game this season, plus AFC West standings and Super Bowl odds.
Chiefs 2026 outlook
| Market | Squawka | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs Super Bowl oddsFull odds | 6.8% | 9.9% | 11.2% | -4.3 | Lay |
| Chiefs AFC Championship oddsFull odds | 14.4% | 17.7% | 18.6% | -4.2 | Lay |
| Chiefs AFC West odds | 62.1% | Signal read | |||
at Moneyline
Against the spread
Signal read
FairSquawka Signal is a 538-lineage Elo model with a 10,000-run Monte Carlo season simulation. Market prices are de-vigged to fair probability. Model numbers are a view, not a guarantee. 21+. Play responsibly.
AFC West standings and division odds
Division and playoff odds are the model’s, from a 10,000-run season simulation.
| Team | Record | Win AFC West | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 5-0 | 62.1% | 95.0% |
 Denver Broncos | 4-2 | 37.3% | 89.6% |
 Las Vegas Raiders | 3-3 | 0.6% | 5.4% |
 Los Angeles Chargers | 0-6 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Kansas City Chiefs schedule, results and lines
Every game with the model’s win probability and projected line, against the market spread where it’s priced.
Chiefs injury report
Out long-term
| Player | Pos | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Cooper McDonald | LB | IR |
| Ethan Downs | LB | IR |
| Josh Simmons | T | IR |
| John Michael Gyllenborg | TE | IR |
| Jeff Caldwell | WR | IR |
| Jimmy Holiday | WR | IR |
| Tyquan Thornton | WR | IR |
| Omarr Norman-Lott | DT | PUP |
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76 players · tap to open
Offense 37
| # | Player | Pos | Exp | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Justin Fields | QB | 6 | Ohio State |
| 15 | Patrick Mahomes | QB | 10 | Texas Tech |
| 19 | Garrett Nussmeier | QB | LSU | |
| 9 | Kenneth Walker III | RB | 5 | Michigan State |
| 10 | Emmett Johnson | RB | Nebraska | |
| 34 | Jaydn Ott | RB | Oklahoma | |
| 24 | Brashard Smith | RB | 2 | SMU |
| 47 | Ben VanSumeren | FB | 4 | Michigan State |
| 13 | Cyrus Allen | WR | Cincinnati | |
| 85 | Andrew Armstrong | WR | 1 | Arkansas |
| 8 | Jeff Caldwell | WR | Cincinnati | |
| 80 | Omari Evans | WR | Washington | |
| 82 | Jimmy Holiday | WR | 1 | Louisiana Tech |
| 81 | Nikko Remigio | WR | 2 | Fresno State |
| 4 | Rashee Rice | WR | 4 | SMU |
| 11 | Jalen Royals | WR | 2 | Utah State |
| 2 | Tyquan Thornton | WR | 5 | Baylor |
| 84 | Justin Watson | WR | 9 | Pennsylvania |
| 1 | Xavier Worthy | WR | 3 | Texas |
| 88 | Jake Briningstool | TE | 2 | Clemson |
| 83 | Noah Gray | TE | 6 | Duke |
| 84 | John Michael Gyllenborg | TE | Wyoming | |
| 87 | Travis Kelce | TE | 14 | Cincinnati |
| 89 | Thomas Odukoya | TE | 2 | Eastern Michigan |
| 12 | Jared Wiley | TE | 3 | TCU |
| 52 | Creed Humphrey | C | 6 | Oklahoma |
| 50 | Pete Nygra | C | Louisville | |
| 65 | Trey Smith | G | 6 | Tennessee |
| 70 | Kahlil Benson | T | Indiana | |
| 75 | Ethan Driskell | T | 2 | Marshall |
| 61 | Diego Pounds | T | Ole Miss | |
| 71 | Josh Simmons | T | 2 | Ohio State |
| 66 | Mike Caliendo | OL | 4 | Western Michigan |
| 73 | Joshua Ezeudu | OL | 5 | North Carolina |
| 77 | Jaylon Moore | OL | 6 | Western Michigan |
| 64 | Hunter Nourzad | OL | 3 | Penn State |
| 76 | Kingsley Suamataia | OL | 3 | BYU |
Defense 36
| # | Player | Pos | Exp | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | Felix Anudike-Uzomah | DE | 4 | Kansas State |
| 97 | Ashton Gillotte | DE | 2 | Louisville |
| 49 | Michael Heldman | DE | Central Michigan | |
| 56 | George Karlaftis | DE | 5 | Purdue |
| 90 | Emmanuel Ogbah | DE | 11 | Oklahoma State |
| 54 | Jack Pyburn | DE | LSU | |
| 57 | Tyreke Smith | DE | 3 | Ohio State |
| 51 | R Mason Thomas | DE | Oklahoma | |
| 94 | Bryson Eason | DT | Tennessee | |
| 96 | Marcus Harris | DT | 1 | Auburn |
| 95 | Chris Jones | DT | 11 | Mississippi State |
| 55 | Omarr Norman-Lott | DT | 2 | Tennessee |
| 99 | Peter Woods | DL | Clemson | |
| 92 | Khyiris Tonga | NT | 6 | BYU |
| 31 | Jeffrey Bassa | LB | 2 | Oregon |
| 32 | Nick Bolton | LB | 6 | Missouri |
| 48 | Cole Christiansen | LB | 2 | Army |
| 43 | Jack Cochrane | LB | 5 | South Dakota |
| 40 | Ethan Downs | LB | 1 | Oklahoma |
| Aiden Fisher | LB | Indiana | ||
| 44 | Cooper McDonald | LB | 2 | TCU |
| 23 | Drue Tranquill | LB | 8 | Notre Dame |
| 5 | Mansoor Delane | CB | LSU | |
| 8 | Kristian Fulton | CB | 6 | LSU |
| 39 | Melvin Smith Jr. | CB | 1 | Southern Arkansas |
| 26 | Kader Kohou | CB | 5 | East Texas A&M |
| 46 | D'Arco Perkins-McAllister | CB | Louisiana-Monroe | |
| 30 | Chris Roland-Wallace | CB | 3 | USC |
| 38 | L'Jarius Sneed | CB | 7 | Louisiana Tech |
| 17 | Alohi Gilman | SAF | 7 | Notre Dame |
| 29 | Xavier Nwankpa | SAF | Iowa | |
| 25 | DeShon Singleton | SAF | Nebraska | |
| 22 | Jadon Canady | DB | Oregon | |
| 27 | Chamarri Conner | DB | 4 | Virginia Tech |
| 21 | Jaden Hicks | DB | 3 | Washington State |
| 20 | Nohl Williams | DB | 2 | California |
Special teams 3
| # | Player | Pos | Exp | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Harrison Butker | K | 10 | Georgia Tech |
| 14 | Matt Araiza | P | 3 | San Diego State |
| 41 | James Winchester | LS | 12 | Oklahoma |
Kansas City Chiefs FAQ
What are the Chiefs’ Super Bowl odds?
Squawka Signal gives the Chiefs a 6.8% chance of winning Super Bowl LXI. The market prices them at 11.2%, so the model reads them as lay. See the full Super Bowl odds.
Can the Chiefs win the AFC West?
The model makes them 62.1% to win the AFC West. That makes them the favourite, ahead of the Denver Broncos at 37.3%.
Will the Chiefs make the playoffs?
Signal has them at 95.0% to reach the postseason, and 24.6% to take the No.1 seed in the AFC.
Who do the Chiefs play next?
Week 7, away at Seattle Seahawks on Sun Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET. Signal makes the Chiefs 46% with a projected line of KC +1.2. Read our full preview.
Who is the Chiefs’ starting quarterback?
Patrick Mahomes. That is the projected starter our model rates the Chiefs on, taken from last season’s attempts plus any offseason moves — not an official depth chart.
What record are the Chiefs projected to finish with?
Adding up the model’s win probability for all 17 games gives an expected 11-6 (10.6 wins).
When is the Chiefs’ bye week?
Week 5 of the 2026 season.
What is the Chiefs’ power ranking?
Signal ranks them #7 of 32. The rating behind it is built from results and margin of victory, adjusted for opponent quality and for who is playing quarterback.
Where do the Chiefs play?
Kansas City Chiefs play their home games at Arrowhead Stadium.