These are the 2026-27 Norris Trophy odds. They have Evan Bouchard in front at 36.4%. The NHL Norris market tells one story. Our WAR value model often tells another.
WAR stands for wins above replacement. It measures how much a defenceman adds over a freely available fill-in. We put it next to each player’s market price. Then we flag the defencemans the model rates higher than the market. That gap is the edge these Norris Trophy odds can miss.
NHL Norris RaceNorris Trophy Odds: Market vs the Model
1
Evan BouchardEDM · D36.4%0.74·▾
However, the market prices Evan Bouchard at #1 (36.4% implied), ahead of our model, which has him #4 by WAR in this field. So the market is reading something the value model has not caught yet.
Back Evan Bouchard for the Norris36.4%2
Quinn HughesMIN · D25.0%1.10·▾
Overall, model and market broadly line up on Quinn Hughes. The market price sits at 25.0%, and our WAR model also has him around #1 in this field.
Back Quinn Hughes for the Norris25.0%3
Mikhail SergachevUTA · D9.5%-0.11·▾
However, the market prices Mikhail Sergachev at #3 (9.5% implied), ahead of our model, which has him #9 by WAR in this field. So the market is reading something the value model has not caught yet.
Back Mikhail Sergachev for the Norris9.5%4
Lane HutsonMTL · D7.6%0.78·▾
Overall, model and market broadly line up on Lane Hutson. The market price sits at 7.6%, and our WAR model also has him around #3 in this field.
Back Lane Hutson for the Norris7.6%5
Cale MakarCOL · D7.5%0.23·▾
Overall, model and market broadly line up on Cale Makar. The market price sits at 7.5%, and our WAR model also has him around #6 in this field.
Back Cale Makar for the Norris7.5%6MacKenzie WeegarUTA · D4.6%-0.14·▾
However, the market prices MacKenzie Weegar at #6 (4.6% implied), ahead of our model, which has him #11 by WAR in this field. So the market is reading something the value model has not caught yet.
Back MacKenzie Weegar for the Norris4.6%7
Bowen ByramCHI · D4.5%-0.11·▾
However, the market prices Bowen Byram at #7 (4.5% implied), ahead of our model, which has him #10 by WAR in this field. So the market is reading something the value model has not caught yet.
Back Bowen Byram for the Norris4.5%8
Brandt ClarkeLAK · D4.5%0.27VALUE▾
Our WAR model rates Brandt Clarke the #5 most valuable defenceman in this field, ahead of the market’s #8 price (4.5% implied). So this is a value angle if the voters come round to what the model already sees.
Back Brandt Clarke for the Norris4.5%9
Kris LetangPIT · D4.5%-0.06·▾
Overall, model and market broadly line up on Kris Letang. The market price sits at 4.5%, and our WAR model also has him around #8 in this field.
Back Kris Letang for the Norris4.5%10
Moritz SeiderDET · D4.2%1.07VALUE▾
Our WAR model rates Moritz Seider the #2 most valuable defenceman in this field, ahead of the market’s #10 price (4.2% implied). So this is a value angle if the voters come round to what the model already sees.
Back Moritz Seider for the Norris4.2%11
Ryker EvansSEA · D4.2%0.18VALUE▾
Our WAR model rates Ryker Evans the #7 most valuable defenceman in this field, ahead of the market’s #11 price (4.2% implied). So this is a value angle if the voters come round to what the model already sees.
Back Ryker Evans for the Norris4.2%12
Neal PionkWPG · D3.5%-0.26·▾
Overall, model and market broadly line up on Neal Pionk. The market price sits at 3.5%, and our WAR model also has him around #12 in this field.
Back Neal Pionk for the Norris3.5%“Odds” is each candidate’s implied probability on the Polymarket Norris Trophy market. “WAR” is the Squawka Signal value model — wins above replacement, not a prediction of the vote; the VALUE flag marks players our model rates higher than the market does. See the full player-value board · how Signal works. 18+ and in an eligible state. Prediction markets carry risk — trade responsibly.
How to read the Norris Trophy odds
Each figure in the odds column is a player’s implied chance of winning the Norris Trophy. The WAR column is our model’s value score for that same player. So when a player’s WAR rank beats his market rank, the model sees value the price has missed. The green VALUE tag marks those players.
Where the model sees value in the Norris race
The model’s clearest value calls are Brandt Clarke, Moritz Seider and Ryker Evans. Evan Bouchard leads on both the market and the model, so the top is settled. Lower down, though, the gaps widen. That is where the Norris Trophy odds can lag the underlying play.
Norris Trophy odds: who are the favorites?
The market favorites are Evan Bouchard, Quinn Hughes and Mikhail Sergachev. Evan Bouchard is a clear number one. Behind him, however, the field tightens fast. That is where the WAR column earns its place. It separates the defencemans the price alone lumps together.
Overall, WAR drives all of it, and these Norris Trophy odds refresh daily. So see every skater in the full player-value board. Also check the team picture in our Stanley Cup odds. And read how the model works.