Kansas City run for 5.27 yards a carry, the best average in the NFL, and have conceded nine touchdowns in six games. Our Chiefs vs Broncos prediction takes them to altitude.
The Denver Broncos are 5-2 with 21 sacks and allow a 74.2 opponent passer rating. The Kansas City Chiefs are 5-1 at +40, and Denver are +3.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Kansas City ChiefsSquawka36%Market52%▼ Overpriced
Denver BroncosSquawka64%Market48%▲ Strong valueSquawka Signal is our model’s read against devigged market prices, updated after every result — not betting advice. How the NFL Signal works. 21+. Play responsibly. Full T&Cs & geo-restrictions apply: Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX.
Chiefs vs Broncos: our editor’s props
Two calls from our editor, to read next to Signal’s live numbers.
AT Our props
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Chiefs vs Broncos: 2026 form so far
Two of the best defenses in the league, and a 37-point gap in differential. The table sets each attack against what the opposite defense has actually allowed.
Chiefs attack against the Broncos defense
| Per game | Chiefs offense | Broncos allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 239.0 | 215.7 |
| Rushing yards | 141.5 | 133.3 |
| Yards per carry | 5.3 | 4.6 |
| Passer rating | 95.3 | 74.2 |
| Touchdowns | 2.7 | 2.0 |
| Third-down conversion | 39.4% | 42.1% |
| Red-zone conversion | 56.5% | 45.5% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.2 | 3.0 |
Broncos attack against the Chiefs defense
| Per game | Broncos offense | Chiefs allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 175.1 | 223.8 |
| Rushing yards | 94.9 | 99.5 |
| Yards per carry | 3.8 | 3.6 |
| Passer rating | 80.7 | 77.1 |
| Touchdowns | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| Third-down conversion | 31.1% | 41.9% |
| Red-zone conversion | 60.0% | 26.7% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.3 | 1.3 |
Denver convert 31.1% on third down, second-lowest in the NFL. Their defense has carried a 5-2 record on a +3 differential.
Chiefs vs Broncos quarterback matchup
Patrick Mahomes has nine touchdown passes to four interceptions at 95.3. Bo Nix has seven to three at 80.7 and threw for 222 yards last week.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | Patrick Mahomes | 19/33, 165 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 58.3 rtg | 124/191, 1474 yds, 9 TD, 4 INT, 95.3 rtg (6 games) |
| Broncos | Bo Nix | 15/29, 222 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 88.6 rtg | 129/218, 1271 yds, 7 TD, 3 INT, 80.7 rtg (7 games) |
Chiefs vs Broncos injury report and team news
Kansas City run for 5.27 yards a carry, the highest average in the NFL.
Kansas City have conceded nine touchdowns in six games, second only to Minnesota.
Denver have 21 sacks, a figure only four other teams match, and allow a 74.2 opponent rating.
Kansas City ChiefsDenver BroncosTwo defenses, and only one offense
Kansas City have conceded nine touchdowns and hold opponents to 26.7% in the red zone. Only Minnesota are better on either.
Denver are close behind — a 74.2 opponent rating, third-best in the league, and 21 sacks.
The gap is at the other end. Kansas City run for 5.27 a carry and have scored 143 points; Denver convert 31.1% on third down and have been outscored on the season despite being 5-2.
Players to watch
- Patrick Mahomes (KC, QB): 1,474 passing yards and nine touchdowns at 95.3.
- Kenneth Walker III (KC, RB): Fronts the best rushing average in the NFL at 5.27.
- Bo Nix (DEN, QB): Seven touchdown passes at an 80.7 rating.
- RJ Harvey (DEN, RB): Shares a backfield averaging 3.84 a carry.
How to watch Chiefs vs Broncos
Kickoff is 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, November 1 at Empower Field at Mile High, which is 3:25 PM CT and 1:25 PM PT. CBS has the regional broadcast.
| Detail | Chiefs vs Broncos |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, November 1, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 PM ET / 3:25 PM CT / 1:25 PM PT |
| Venue | Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO |
| TV | CBS |
| Live stream | NFL+ / Paramount+ |
| Week | Week 8, 2026 NFL season |
Chiefs vs Broncos prediction and score projection
Kansas City win 27-24. This is the one game this week where our call and the model part company: Signal has Denver at home, and the Chiefs are +40 on the season to Denver’s +3.
Signal’s live probability for this game updates through to kickoff.
Every Week 8 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Panthers @ Packers | Packers 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Cardinals @ Cowboys | Cowboys 27-17 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Falcons @ Buccaneers | Buccaneers 24-21 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Ravens @ Bills | Bills 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Browns @ Steelers | Steelers 23-17 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Colts @ Jaguars | Jaguars 27-16 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Raiders @ Jets | Raiders 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Vikings @ Lions | Vikings 24-21 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Titans @ Bengals | Bengals 30-13 | Read |
| Sun 5:05 PM | Chargers @ Rams | Rams 26-16 | Read |
| Sun 5:25 PM | Chiefs @ Broncos | Chiefs 27-24 | You are here |
| Sun 5:25 PM | Patriots @ Dolphins | Patriots 26-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:20 PM | Eagles @ Commanders | Eagles 20-17 | Read |
| Mon 9:15 PM | Bears @ Seahawks | Seahawks 24-21 | Read |
For the rest of the week, see the full NFL picks page and our NFL hub. The outright markets are priced in the Super Bowl market. Individual lines are covered in prop markets for this game.
Chiefs vs Broncos FAQ
Denver — our Signal model has the Broncos favored at altitude, and the live number sits in the Signal card on this page. Our own prediction disagrees: Kansas City are +40 on differential to Denver’s +3, and we have it Chiefs 27-24.
4:25 PM ET on Sunday, November 1 at Empower Field at Mile High, which is 3:25 PM CT and 1:25 PM PT.
Kansas City, at 5.27 yards a carry — the highest average in the NFL.
A defense with 21 sacks and a 74.2 opponent rating, carrying an offense that converts 31.1% on third down.
21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Signal probabilities and odds approximate at time of writing and subject to change