Our Chiefs vs Raiders prediction covers the only game this week between two unbeaten teams, and the AFC West has both of them. Squawka Signal’s live read on this game, including where the value sits, updates on this page through the week.
The Kansas City Chiefs are 3-0 and have conceded a 71.9 passer rating. The Las Vegas Raiders are 3-0 with nine passing touchdowns and 10 forced fumbles. Allegiant Stadium has the best fixture of the weekend and a divisional edge on top of it.
Chiefs vs Raiders: our editor’s props
Two editorial calls to sit alongside the live Signal numbers on this page.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Chiefs vs Raiders: 2026 form so far
Two unbeaten teams with genuinely different strengths. The table puts each attack against what the opposite defense has actually allowed.
Chiefs attack against the Raiders defense
| Per game | Chiefs offense | Raiders allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 263.0 | 200.3 |
| Rushing yards | 153.3 | 116.3 |
| Yards per carry | 5.0 | 4.5 |
| Passer rating | 108.9 | 82.2 |
| Touchdowns | 3.3 | 2.3 |
| Third-down conversion | 45.9% | 41.0% |
| Red-zone conversion | 60.0% | 77.8% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.3 | 3.3 |
Raiders attack against the Chiefs defense
| Per game | Raiders offense | Chiefs allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 211.7 | 178.3 |
| Rushing yards | 100.0 | 99.7 |
| Yards per carry | 3.2 | 3.8 |
| Passer rating | 107.2 | 71.9 |
| Touchdowns | 3.3 | 1.7 |
| Third-down conversion | 41.0% | 37.5% |
| Red-zone conversion | 61.5% | 57.1% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.7 | 1.3 |
Read these as a 3-game sample rather than settled form. Rates this early move a long way on one result.
Kansas City have conceded a 71.9 passer rating, second-lowest in the league. Las Vegas have forced 10 fumbles. Whichever of those holds up is likely to settle it.
Chiefs vs Raiders quarterback matchup
Patrick Mahomes and Kirk Cousins have 16 touchdown passes between them, the highest combined total of any pairing this week.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | Patrick Mahomes | 20/24, 246 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 119.8 rtg | 67/98, 812 yds, 7 TD, 2 INT, 108.9 rtg (3 games) |
| Raiders | Kirk Cousins | 22/33, 248 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 119.3 rtg | 62/92, 661 yds, 9 TD, 3 INT, 107.2 rtg (3 games) |
Chiefs vs Raiders injury report and team news
Kirk Cousins has thrown nine touchdown passes in three games for Las Vegas, level with Brock Purdy for the most in the league.
Patrick Mahomes completed 20 of 24 at Miami for 246 yards and two touchdowns, an 83.3% completion rate and a 119.8 rating.
This section updates as soon as the Out, Doubtful and Questionable tags land.
Where Chiefs vs Raiders is decided
Las Vegas have forced 10 fumbles in three games, four of them at New Orleans in a 35-27 win. Add 10 sacks and four interceptions and this is a defense that creates chaos rather than one that shuts an offense down cleanly.
Kansas City do the opposite. They have conceded a 71.9 passer rating and five touchdowns, and their offense has run 92 times for 460 yards at 5.0 a carry. Mahomes threw only 24 times at Miami and completed 20 of them.
Consequently the turnover battle decides this. The Chiefs have given the ball away sparingly and the Raiders have taken it repeatedly, and a divisional game between unbeaten teams rarely turns on anything tidier.
Players to watch
- Patrick Mahomes (KC, QB): 20 of 24 for 246 yards and two touchdowns at Miami.
- Kenneth Walker III (KC, RB): 360 rushing yards this season, more than any other player.
- Kirk Cousins (LV, QB): 248 yards and three touchdowns at New Orleans, a 119.3 rating.
- Brock Bowers (LV, TE): 10 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown in Week 3.
How to watch Chiefs vs Raiders
Kickoff is 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, October 4 at Allegiant Stadium, which is 3:25 PM CT and 1:25 PM PT. CBS has the regional broadcast.
| Detail | Chiefs vs Raiders |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 4, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 PM ET / 3:25 PM CT / 1:25 PM PT |
| Venue | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV |
| TV | CBS |
| Live stream | NFL+ / Paramount+ |
| Week | Week 4, 2026 NFL season |
Chiefs vs Raiders prediction and score projection
Our Chiefs vs Raiders prediction is a narrow Kansas City win, 27-24. Both are 3-0 and the Raiders have home advantage, but the Chiefs have conceded less and give the ball away less often.
The live win probability and the model’s projected margin update on this page through the week.
Every Week 4 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Steelers @ Browns | Browns 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:30 AM | Colts @ Commanders | Commanders 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Cardinals @ Giants | Cardinals 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Cowboys @ Texans | Cowboys 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Packers @ Buccaneers | Packers 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Jaguars @ Bengals | Jaguars 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Rams @ Eagles | Rams 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Patriots @ Bills | Bills 30-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Jets @ Bears | Bears 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Titans @ Ravens | Ravens 27-13 | Read |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Dolphins @ Vikings | Vikings 24-13 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Broncos @ 49ers | 49ers 31-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Chiefs @ Raiders | Chiefs 27-24 | You are here |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Chargers @ Seahawks | Seahawks 27-17 | Read |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Lions @ Panthers | Lions 31-24 | Read |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Falcons @ Saints | Saints 26-23 | Read |
Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL hub, and Signal rates every game on the NFL picks page.
Chiefs vs Raiders FAQ
Kansas City, narrowly, despite playing away. Both teams are 3-0, the only such meeting in Week 4.
4:25 PM ET on Sunday, October 4, at Allegiant Stadium.
Yes. Kansas City and Las Vegas are both 3-0, and this is the only game in Week 4 between two undefeated teams.
Kansas City won 24-10 at Miami. Las Vegas won 35-27 at New Orleans.
21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Signal probabilities and odds approximate at time of writing and subject to change