These are the 2026-27 NHL MVP odds. They have Connor McDavid in front at 75.5%. The NHL MVP market tells one story. Our WAR value model often tells another.
WAR stands for wins above replacement. It measures how much a skater adds over a freely available fill-in. We put it next to each player’s market price. Then we flag the skaters the model rates higher than the market. That gap is the edge these NHL MVP odds can miss.
NHL MVP RaceHart Trophy Odds: Market vs the Model
1
Connor McDavidEDM · F75.5%1.03·▾
Overall, model and market broadly line up on Connor McDavid. The market price sits at 75.5%, and our WAR model also has him around #1 in this field.
Back Connor McDavid for the MVP75.5%2
Kirill KaprizovMIN · F7.4%0.88·▾
Overall, model and market broadly line up on Kirill Kaprizov. The market price sits at 7.4%, and our WAR model also has him around #2 in this field.
Back Kirill Kaprizov for the MVP7.4%3
Nathan MacKinnonCOL · F7.0%0.54·▾
However, the market prices Nathan MacKinnon at #3 (7.0% implied), ahead of our model, which has him #6 by WAR in this field. So the market is reading something the value model has not caught yet.
Back Nathan MacKinnon for the MVP7.0%4
Macklin CelebriniSJS · F3.8%0.81·▾
Overall, model and market broadly line up on Macklin Celebrini. The market price sits at 3.8%, and our WAR model also has him around #3 in this field.
Back Macklin Celebrini for the MVP3.8%5
Jack EichelVGK · F3.2%0.46·▾
However, the market prices Jack Eichel at #5 (3.2% implied), ahead of our model, which has him #8 by WAR in this field. So the market is reading something the value model has not caught yet.
Back Jack Eichel for the MVP3.2%6
Jack HughesNJD · F2.3%0.71VALUE▾
Our WAR model rates Jack Hughes the #4 most valuable forward in this field, ahead of the market’s #6 price (2.3% implied). So this is a value angle if the voters come round to what the model already sees.
Back Jack Hughes for the MVP2.3%7
Nikita KucherovTBL · F2.3%0.47·▾
Overall, model and market broadly line up on Nikita Kucherov. The market price sits at 2.3%, and our WAR model also has him around #7 in this field.
Back Nikita Kucherov for the MVP2.3%8
Logan StankovenCAR · F1.8%0.57VALUE▾
Our WAR model rates Logan Stankoven the #5 most valuable forward in this field, ahead of the market’s #8 price (1.8% implied). So this is a value angle if the voters come round to what the model already sees.
Back Logan Stankoven for the MVP1.8%9
Lucas RaymondDET · F1.8%0.24·▾
Overall, model and market broadly line up on Lucas Raymond. The market price sits at 1.8%, and our WAR model also has him around #10 in this field.
Back Lucas Raymond for the MVP1.8%10
Roman JosiNSH · D1.8%0.36·▾
Overall, model and market broadly line up on Roman Josi. The market price sits at 1.8%, and our WAR model also has him around #9 in this field.
Back Roman Josi for the MVP1.8%11—Dustin WolfG1.7%——▾
Dustin Wolf is a live market candidate, but WAR is a skater metric — our model doesn’t price goaltenders, so there’s no value read here.
Back Dustin Wolf for the MVP1.7%12—Alexander OvechkinG1.5%——▾
Alexander Ovechkin is a live market candidate, but WAR is a skater metric — our model doesn’t price goaltenders, so there’s no value read here.
Back Alexander Ovechkin for the MVP1.5%“Odds” is each candidate’s implied probability on the Polymarket Hart Trophy market. “WAR” is the Squawka Signal value model — wins above replacement, not a prediction of the vote; the VALUE flag marks players our model rates higher than the market does. See the full player-value board · how Signal works. 18+ and in an eligible state. Prediction markets carry risk — trade responsibly.
How to read the NHL MVP odds
Each figure in the odds column is a player’s implied chance of winning the Hart Trophy. The WAR column is our model’s value score for that same player. So when a player’s WAR rank beats his market rank, the model sees value the price has missed. The green VALUE tag marks those players.
Where the model sees value in the MVP race
The model’s clearest value calls are Jack Hughes and Logan Stankoven. Connor McDavid leads on both the market and the model, so the top is settled. Lower down, though, the gaps widen. That is where the NHL MVP odds can lag the underlying play.
NHL MVP odds: who are the favorites?
The market favorites are Connor McDavid, Kirill Kaprizov and Nathan MacKinnon. Connor McDavid is a clear number one. Behind him, however, the field tightens fast. That is where the WAR column earns its place. It separates the skaters the price alone lumps together.
Overall, WAR drives all of it, and these NHL MVP odds refresh daily. So see every skater in the full player-value board. Also check the team picture in our Stanley Cup odds. And read how the model works.