These are the live 2026-27 NFL MVP odds. The MVP race is priced by Polymarket and Kalshi, set next to Squawka Signal’s own quarterback model. Joe Burrow leads the market at 31%. The model’s standout value call is Trevor Lawrence. It rates him #2 of the field, against the market’s #5 price.
The MVP is almost always a quarterback. So our value lens is the Signal QB model, a rolling rating of every starter. We put it beside each candidate’s market price. Then we flag the players the model rates higher. So you get the NFL MVP odds and the reasoning in one place.
NFL MVP Odds — Market vs the Model
1
Joe BurrowCIN · QBQB model71Polymarket31%▼ Market higherKalshi33%▼ Market higher
Our QB model rates Joe Burrow #4 of the MVP field, against the market’s #1 price.
2
Josh AllenBUF · QBQB model69Polymarket20%▼ Market higherKalshi21%▼ Market higher
Our QB model rates Josh Allen #5 of the MVP field, against the market’s #2 price.
3
Brock PurdySF · QBQB model73Polymarket15%▬ In lineKalshi16%▬ In line
Our QB model rates Brock Purdy #3 of the MVP field, against the market’s #3 price.
4
Jordan LoveGB · QBQB model51Polymarket11%▼ Market higherKalshi15%▼ Market higher
Our QB model rates Jordan Love #10 of the MVP field, against the market’s #4 price.
5
Trevor LawrenceJAC · QBQB model74Polymarket10%▲ Model valueKalshi8%▲ Model value
Our QB model rates Trevor Lawrence #2 of the MVP field, against the market’s #5 price.
6JSJaxson Smith-NjigbaQB model–Polymarket3%▬ —
Jaxson Smith-Njigba is a live market candidate, but our value lens is a quarterback model — it doesn’t price non-QBs, so there’s no model read here.
7
Caleb WilliamsCHI · QBQB model58Polymarket3%▬ OutsiderKalshi3%▬ Outsider
Our QB model rates Caleb Williams #7 of the MVP field, against the market’s #7 price.
8
Patrick MahomesKC · QBQB model41Polymarket2%▬ OutsiderKalshi2%▬ Outsider
Our QB model rates Patrick Mahomes #12 of the MVP field, against the market’s #8 price.
9
Jared GoffDET · QBQB model56Polymarket2%▬ OutsiderKalshi2%▬ Outsider
Our QB model rates Jared Goff #8 of the MVP field, against the market’s #9 price.
10
Justin HerbertLAC · QBQB model48Polymarket1%▬ OutsiderKalshi1%▬ Outsider
Our QB model rates Justin Herbert #11 of the MVP field, against the market’s #10 price.
11
Dak PrescottDAL · QBQB model56Polymarket0%▬ OutsiderKalshi1%▬ Outsider
Our QB model rates Dak Prescott #9 of the MVP field, against the market’s #11 price.
12
Bo NixDEN · QBQB model61Polymarket0%▬ OutsiderKalshi1%▬ Outsider
Our QB model rates Bo Nix #6 of the MVP field, against the market’s #12 price.
13
Matthew StaffordLA · QBQB model75Polymarket0%▬ OutsiderKalshi1%▬ Outsider
Our QB model rates Matthew Stafford #1 of the MVP field, against the market’s #13 price.
14JGJahmyr GibbsQB model–Polymarket0%▬ —Kalshi1%▬ —
Jahmyr Gibbs is a live market candidate, but our value lens is a quarterback model — it doesn’t price non-QBs, so there’s no model read here.
“QB model” is each quarterback’s Signal rolling rating. It is a value lens, not a vote prediction. Non-QB candidates carry no model read. Market = each candidate’s implied probability on Polymarket and Kalshi. For analysis and entertainment, not financial advice. 18+ and eligible US states only. Read our Polymarket review, Kalshi review and the Signal methodology.
What the Squawka Signal says
The market makes Joe Burrow its MVP favorite at 31%. That is the money talking — our QB model is a separate read, and where the two disagree is the point of reading them together.
Where the QB model splits from the market: it rates Trevor Lawrence higher than the market does, and is cooler than the market on Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Jordan Love.
How the Squawka Signal QB model reads the NFL MVP odds
Squawka Signal rates every NFL quarterback with a rolling value model. It is built from each start since 2021, weighted so recent form dominates. The quarterback is the biggest lever in NFL results. So it is our natural lens on an award that nearly always goes to one.
We do not turn that into a vote prediction. The MVP is decided by voters, not a simulation. Instead we set each quarterback’s rating next to the live NFL MVP odds. Then we flag value where the model rates a player above the market. Full detail is in our Signal methodology.
NFL MVP odds FAQ
The odds are each candidate’s implied probability on the Polymarket and Kalshi MVP markets. Beside them we show the Squawka Signal QB model’s rating for each quarterback — a value lens, not a vote prediction.
It marks a quarterback our QB model rates higher than the market’s price implies — a candidate the model thinks is underrated. It is a read, not a tip.
The market prices and the QB model both refresh through the season, so the board moves with results, injuries and form.
In the US, Polymarket and Kalshi both list the NFL MVP as an event contract. Availability varies by state; 18+.