Our Chiefs vs Dolphins prediction pairs the league’s most settled offense with a defense that has not laid a hand on a quarterback. Squawka Signal’s live read on this game, including where the value sits, updates on this page through the week.
The Kansas City Chiefs are 2-0 and put 523 yards on Indianapolis, holding the ball for 37 minutes. The Miami Dolphins are 0-2 and have recorded zero sacks in two games. Patrick Mahomes with time is not the quarterback you want to meet in that state.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins
Kansas City ChiefsSquawka69%Market86%▼ Overpriced
Miami DolphinsSquawka31%Market14%▲ Strong valueSquawka Signal is our model’s read against devigged market prices, updated after every result — not betting advice. How the NFL Signal works. 21+. Play responsibly. Full T&Cs & geo-restrictions apply: Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX.
Chiefs vs Dolphins: our editor’s props
Two editorial calls to sit alongside the live Signal numbers on this page.
AT Our props
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Chiefs vs Dolphins: 2026 form so far
A two-game sample, but an unusually clear one: Kansas City are efficient everywhere and Miami are yet to generate any pressure at all.
Chiefs attack against the Dolphins defense
| Per game | Chiefs offense | Dolphins allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 271.5 | 223.5 |
| Rushing yards | 186.0 | 112.5 |
| Yards per carry | 5.6 | 3.5 |
| Passer rating | 103.8 | 118.5 |
| Touchdowns | 3.5 | 4.0 |
| Third-down conversion | 46.7% | 50.0% |
| Red-zone conversion | 60.0% | 88.9% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.0 | 0.0 |
Dolphins attack against the Chiefs defense
| Per game | Dolphins offense | Chiefs allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 183.5 | 162.5 |
| Rushing yards | 88.0 | 90.0 |
| Yards per carry | 3.7 | 3.8 |
| Passer rating | 83.5 | 78.4 |
| Touchdowns | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Third-down conversion | 36.0% | 29.2% |
| Red-zone conversion | 20.0% | 60.0% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 4.5 | 2.0 |
Read these as a 2-game sample rather than settled form. Rates this early move a long way on one result.
Zero sacks in two games is the number that shapes this. Miami have also conceded 88.9% in the red zone, so the trips Kansas City earn tend to finish as touchdowns.
Chiefs vs Dolphins injury report and team news
Malik Willis threw for 197 and a touchdown at San Francisco but was sacked four times, and 77 of those yards came on a single throw to Ryan Miller.
De’Von Achane carried 20 times for 74 yards, his workload up sharply after 11 carries in the opener.
This section updates as soon as the Out, Doubtful and Questionable tags land.
Kansas City ChiefsMiami DolphinsWhere Chiefs vs Dolphins is decided
Miami have not sacked a quarterback this season. Not once in two games, against Las Vegas and San Francisco, and Kansas City conceded only two sacks to Indianapolis while running 78 plays.
Kansas City are winning the possession battle rather than the highlight reel. Thirty-seven minutes of the ball against the Colts, 29 rushing attempts, and Kenneth Walker III adding 61 receiving yards on top of 117 on the ground.
Miami did reach the red zone twice at San Francisco and scored from neither. Against a side converting 60% of its own trips, that is the gap in a sentence.
Players to watch
- Patrick Mahomes (KC, QB): 32 of 47 for 382 yards and three touchdowns against Indianapolis.
- Kenneth Walker III (KC, RB): 117 rushing yards and 61 receiving in Week 2.
- De’Von Achane (MIA, RB): 20 carries for 74 yards at San Francisco.
- Malik Willis (MIA, QB): 197 yards and a touchdown, sacked four times.
How to watch Chiefs vs Dolphins
Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, September 27 at Hard Rock Stadium, which is 12:00 PM CT and 10:00 AM PT. CBS has the regional broadcast.
| Detail | Chiefs vs Dolphins |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 27, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM CT / 10:00 AM PT |
| Venue | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL |
| TV | CBS |
| Live stream | NFL+ / Paramount+ |
| Week | Week 3, 2026 NFL season |
Chiefs vs Dolphins prediction and score projection
Our Chiefs vs Dolphins prediction is a Kansas City win, 31-17. Mahomes against a front that has generated no pressure in two games is the clearest edge on the card.
The live win probability and the model’s projected margin update on this page through the week.
Every Week 3 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Falcons @ Packers | Packers 23-10 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Panthers @ Browns | Panthers 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Bengals @ Steelers | Bengals 20-13 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Texans @ Colts | Colts 26-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Chiefs @ Dolphins | Chiefs 31-17 | You are here |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Chargers @ Bills | Bills 31-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Patriots @ Jaguars | Patriots 20-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Jets @ Lions | Lions 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Seahawks @ Commanders | Seahawks 27-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Titans @ Giants | Titans 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Cardinals @ 49ers | 49ers 30-13 | Read |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Vikings @ Buccaneers | Vikings 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Ravens @ Cowboys | Ravens 30-24 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Raiders @ Saints | Raiders 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Rams @ Broncos | Rams 26-17 | Read |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Eagles @ Bears | Eagles 24-20 | Read |
Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL hub, and Signal rates every game on the NFL picks page.
Chiefs vs Dolphins FAQ
Kansas City, comfortably, despite playing away. The Chiefs are 2-0; Miami are 0-2 and have not recorded a sack.
1:00 PM ET on Sunday, September 27, at Hard Rock Stadium.
No sacks in two games, against Las Vegas and San Francisco. Kansas City have conceded two all season.
Kansas City beat Indianapolis 33-30. Miami lost 35-13 at San Francisco.
21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Signal probabilities and odds approximate at time of writing and subject to change