The market makes San Antonio Spurs the Championship favorite at 20%. Squawka Signal’s model agrees.
Every team on the board carries Squawka Signal’s Championship probability for every team, shown next to the live prediction-market price so you can see where our model and the money disagree. Here is how it looks today.
· ChampionshipNBA Championship odds & Signal model
Our model’s Championship probability for every team, next to the live prediction-market price — tap any card to compare the Kalshi and Polymarket prices.
Updated November 12, 2026 · refreshed daily
11
San Antonio SpursSignal22%Market20%▬ In line
52
Oklahoma City ThunderSignal8%Market12%▼ Priced in
123
Philadelphia 76ersSignal2%Market10%▼ Priced in
34
Boston CelticsSignal11%Market7%▲ Value
25
New York KnicksSignal14%Market7%▲ Value
86
Minnesota TimberwolvesSignal5%Market6%▬ In line
67
Houston RocketsSignal6%Market5%▬ In line
78
Los Angeles LakersSignal6%Market4%▬ In line
49
Detroit PistonsSignal9%Market4%▲ Value
1510
Toronto RaptorsSignal1%Market3%▬ In line
1411
Golden State WarriorsSignal1%Market3%▬ In line
1112
Portland Trail BlazersSignal3%Market3%▬ In line
913
Cleveland CavaliersSignal3%Market2%▬ In line
1014
Denver NuggetsSignal3%Market2%▬ In line
1315
Atlanta HawksSignal2%Market1%▬ In line
1616
Charlotte HornetsSignal1%Market0%▬ In line
21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Odds approximate at time of writing. Squawka Signal is a model, not betting advice.
The Signal read
San Antonio Spurs is Signal’s favorite at 22%, with New York Knicks (14%) next.
The clearest value is New York Knicks — Signal rates them 14% against 7% on the market, a 8-point edge.
How to read it
Model is Squawka Signal’s probability for each team — a data-led read built from team strength and simulated to the end of the season. Market is what the prediction markets are paying. The Market figure is a de-vigged consensus of the live Kalshi and Polymarket prices; expand any card to see the two split out with the cheaper price flagged Best price. Where only one book prices a market, we show it and the other joins automatically once it trades.
NBA Championship FAQs
Who is favorite for the NBA Championship?
San Antonio Spurs at 22% on Signal’s model. The full order, with the market’s view alongside, is in the cards above.
Where do Signal and the market disagree most?
Signal’s biggest disagreement with the market right now is on New York Knicks — 14% our way versus 7% priced.
How often does this update?
Every day. Signal re-simulates the season as results land, and the live Kalshi and Polymarket prices refresh alongside.
More from Squawka Signal: NBA AI Predictor, soccer predictions & tips, NBA on Squawka and how Squawka Signal works.
Odds approximate at time of writing and subject to change. For analysis and entertainment, not financial advice. Must be 21+ and physically present in a state where such activity is legal. GAMBLING PROBLEM? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.