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Austria odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats & key players

By Mohamed Moallim

Austria odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats & key players

Published: 8:15, 3 July 2024

Against all the odds, Austria secured their spot in the last 16 of Euro 2024 after topping Group D, but were eliminated in the round of 16 by Turkey.

Led by the ‘godfather of gegenpressing’, there was a renewed belief that Austria under Ralf Rangnick could be Euro 2024‘s true dark horses after finishing ahead of France, Netherlands and Poland.

However, despite having many great chances and creating over 3 xG in the match, Austria succumbed to Turkey in the round of 16.

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This is the nation’s fourth European Championship appearance and wins over Poland and the Netherlands have set up a last-16 clash with Group F runners-up Turkey.

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Latest Austria odds to win Euro 2024
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Austria to win Euro 2024

Austria route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • Austria 0-1 France
  • Poland 1-3 Austria
  • Netherlands 2-3 Austria

Austria potential knockout stage opponents

As Group D winners, Austria were put in the “easier” side of the draw on paper. However, they conceded in the first minute to Merih Demiral and it became an uphill struggle. Ausrtia created five big chances in the match, but failed to take any of them, as they couldn’t turn over the deficit and crashed out with the score 1-2.

Austria key players for this year’s European Championship

Austria top Euros Golden Boot contender: Marko Arnautovic

  • Key stat: Marko Arnautovic is Austria’s all-time leading scorer with 37 goals.

During their Euro 2024 qualifying campaign, one-time Manchester United loanee Marcel Sabitzer finished as Austria’s leading scorer with four goals. Michael Gregoritsch was the top Austrian in Europe’s top five leagues for goals, but Marko Arnautovic is be the man leading Rangnick’s side. He’s also still first-choice penalty taker, giving him the edge in an Austria squad where no player has scored more than once so far at Euro 2024.

A troublesome hamstring injury has reduced Arnautovic’s appearances for Inter Milan and his experience on the international level. In his nine European Championship outings to date, Arnautovic has two goals — extending his tally from the spot against Poland.

Austria primary playmaker: Christoph Baumgartner

  • Key stat: Christoph Baumgartner has recorded one assist from four chances created at Euro 2024.

Austria have a fairly creative squad as a whole, with chances being created across the pitch. In total, 10 different players have created at least one chance for Austria at Euro 2024, with Nicolas Seiwald leading the way on five. Just one chance back is Christoph Baumgartner, who has played 71 fewer minutes than Seiwald.

Baumgartner has started two of Austria’s three games at Euro 2024, one as a No.10 and the other playing on the wing, showing his ability to create from various positions on the pitch. On top of his four chances created, Baumgartner has created one big chance and is one of four Austrian players to provide an assist at Euro 2024.

Austria card magnet & top tackler: Stefan Posch

  • Key stat: Stefan Posch has committed nine fouls at Euro 2024 so far.

Flying down Austria’s right flank, Stefan Posch is no shrinking violet, accumulating seven yellow cards in the 2023/24 Serie A campaign. And he’s not letting up at Euro 2024. Although Nicolas Seiwald leads Austria for tackles (13), Posch isn’t too far behind on 11. Crucially, however, Posch has also committed nine fouls at Euro 2024, with only one player committed more so far.

Posch is also one of nine Austrian players to be booked at Euro 2024 so far, and goes into their last 16 tie against Turkey at risk of suspension.

Austria rising star: Leopold Querfeld

Austria have a generally younger squad and Leopold Querfeld could be an interesting pick at centre-back. The 20-year-old only made his senior debut in March, starting the 2-0 win over Slovakia. He added a second cap against Serbia earlier this month. He has been used mostly as a substitute, playing 26 minutes, but Querfeld is ready to take a step up if required.

Austria set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Marko Arnautović
  • Free kicks: Marcel Sabitzer
  • Corners: Marcel Sabitzer

Austria tactical analysis and formation

Austria team stats at Euro 2024 (average per game):

  • Corners in qualifying: 3.67
  • Corners conceded: 43.67
  • Shots on target: 5.67
  • Shots on target conceded: 2.67
  • Offsides: 1

Following a disappointing caretaker role at Manchester United, the former Red Bull football supremo Ralf Rangnick was installed as his nation’s manager. A first foray into international management has gone smoothly so far. Rangnick has overseen 22 matches, with 13 victories, including six in their last seven.

Rangnick’s reputation precedes him, and the Austrians’ approach to business shouldn’t be too dissimilar to his previous sides, which heavily emphasised counter-pressing. What shape they adopt when kicking off their campaign remains to be seen. Rangnick has experimented with several different formations, ranging from 3-5-2 to 4-3-3. However, in all three Euro 2024 group games he has played 4-2-3-1.

Austria final squad

PLAYER NAME POSITION AGE CLUB
Heinz Lindner Goalkeeper 33 Union-SG
Patrick Pentz Goalkeeper 27 Brondby
Niklas Hedl Goalkeeper 23 Rapid Wien
Gernot Trauner Defender 32 Feyenoord
Philipp Mwene Defender 30 Mainz
Philipp Lienhart Defender 27 Freiburg
Stefan Posch Defender 27 Bologna
Maximilian Wober Defender 26 Borussia Monchengladbach
Kevin Danso Defender 25 Lens
Flavius Daniliuc Defender 23 Red Bull Salzburg
Leopold Querfeld Defender 20 Rapid Wien
Florian Kainz Midfielder 31 FC Koln
Marcel Sabitzer Midfielder 30 Borussia Dortmund
Florian Grillitsch Midfielder 28 Hoffenheim
Konrad Laimer Midfielder 27 Bayern Munich
Marco Grull Midfielder 25 Rapid Wien
Christoph Baumgartner Midfielder 24 RB Leipzig
Romano Schmid Midfielder 24 Werder Bremen
Matthias Seidl Midfielder 23 Rapid Wien
Nicolas Seiwald Midfielder 23 RB Leipzig
Alexander Prass Midfielder 23 Sturm Graz
Patrick Wimmer Midfielder 23 Wolfsburg
Marko Arnautovic Forward 35 Inter Milan
Andreas Weimann Forward 32 West Brom
Michael Gregoritsch Forward 30 Freiburg
Maximilian Entrup Forward 26 Hartberg