Squawka Signal, our own NFL model, is live for the AFC Championship. It rates every AFC team from five seasons of results and its projected quarterback, then simulates the season tens of thousands of times to work out how often each one reaches Super Bowl LXI. The full board is below, and it moves with results, injuries and quarterback changes.
AFC Championship — Squawka Signal
1
Buffalo BillsSquawka33.1%
2
Kansas City ChiefsSquawka14.4%
3
Denver BroncosSquawka14.0%
4
Jacksonville JaguarsSquawka13.8%
5
New England PatriotsSquawka11.2%
6
Baltimore RavensSquawka4.7%
7
Cincinnati BengalsSquawka4.2%
8
Pittsburgh SteelersSquawka3.5%
9
Houston TexansSquawka1.0%
10
Cleveland BrownsSquawka0.1%
11
Las Vegas RaidersSquawka0.0%
12
Indianapolis ColtsSquawka0.0%
13
Los Angeles ChargersSquawka0.0%
14
Miami DolphinsSquawka0.0%
15
New York JetsSquawka0.0%
16
Tennessee TitansSquawka0.0%
Squawka Rating = each team’s strength on a 0–100 scale. Model % = AFC Championship probability across tens of thousands of season simulations, updated as games are played. These are model predictions, not a bookmaker’s price. 18+. BeGambleAware.org. Please gamble responsibly. Read the Signal methodology. Full T&Cs & geo-restrictions apply: BoyleSports, bet365, Sky Bet.
What the Squawka Signal says
Squawka Signal makes the Buffalo Bills its AFC Championship favourites at 33.1%, with the Kansas City Chiefs the main threat on 14.4% and the Denver Broncos next. These are the model’s numbers — a data-led read from tens of thousands of season simulations — and they move after every week of results.
How the Squawka Signal NFL model works
Squawka Signal is a power-rating model. It starts from an Elo rating built on every NFL game since 2021 — a single number for each team’s strength — then applies a quarterback adjustment, the biggest single lever in projecting NFL results, so a team is rated on who is actually under centre rather than last year’s roster.
From those ratings we simulate the rest of the season tens of thousands of times — every game, the playoff bracket and a neutral-site Super Bowl — and count how often each team lifts the trophy. The numbers refresh as games are played, moving with results, injuries and quarterback changes. Full detail is in our Signal methodology.
NFL AFC Championship odds FAQ
Our Squawka Signal model rates every team from five seasons of results, adjusts for each side’s projected starting quarterback, then simulates the rest of the season tens of thousands of times. The figure is a model probability, not a sportsbook price.
The model refreshes as games are played — through the regular season and into the playoffs — so the numbers move with results, injuries and quarterback changes.
No. These are our Squawka Signal model’s probabilities, not a bookmaker’s price — a data-led read on the race, updated as games are played.
Licensed UK sportsbooks — BoyleSports, bet365 and Sky Bet — price NFL AFC Championship markets. See the links on this page, and please gamble responsibly.
The model’s current order is in the table above — it updates as the season plays out, so the favourite can change with results.