Squawka Signal is our own NFL model, and it is live for Super Bowl LXI. It rates all 32 teams from five seasons of results and each side’s projected quarterback, then simulates the season tens of thousands of times to give every team a title probability. The full board is below, and it sharpens after every week of results — tap any team for its Squawka Rating and playoff odds.
NFL Super Bowl LXI — Squawka Signal
1
Buffalo BillsSquawka20.2%
2
Minnesota VikingsSquawka17.0%
3
San Francisco 49ersSquawka16.9%
4
Denver BroncosSquawka7.4%
5
Kansas City ChiefsSquawka6.8%
6
Jacksonville JaguarsSquawka6.8%
7
New England PatriotsSquawka5.9%
8
Seattle SeahawksSquawka3.6%
9
Detroit LionsSquawka2.9%
10
Baltimore RavensSquawka1.9%
11
Cincinnati BengalsSquawka1.8%
12
Chicago BearsSquawka1.8%
13
Green Bay PackersSquawka1.7%
14
Pittsburgh SteelersSquawka1.5%
15
Los Angeles RamsSquawka1.3%
16
Philadelphia EaglesSquawka0.9%
Squawka Rating = each team’s strength on a 0–100 scale. Model % = Super Bowl probability across tens of thousands of season simulations, updated as games are played. These are model predictions, not a bookmaker’s price. 18+. BeGambleAware.org. Please gamble responsibly. Read the Signal methodology. Full T&Cs & geo-restrictions apply: BoyleSports, bet365, Sky Bet.
What the Squawka Signal says
Squawka Signal makes the Buffalo Bills its Super Bowl LXI favourites at 20.2%, with the Buffalo Bills leading the AFC and the Minnesota Vikings the NFC. These are the model’s numbers — a data-led read from tens of thousands of season simulations — and they move after every week of results.
How the Squawka Signal NFL model works
Squawka Signal is a power-rating model. It starts from an Elo rating built on every NFL game since 2021 — a single number for each team’s strength — then applies a quarterback adjustment, the biggest single lever in projecting NFL results, so a team is rated on who is actually under centre rather than last year’s roster.
From those ratings we simulate the rest of the season tens of thousands of times — every game, the playoff bracket and a neutral-site Super Bowl — and count how often each team lifts the trophy. The numbers refresh as games are played, moving with results, injuries and quarterback changes. Full detail is in our Signal methodology.
NFL Super Bowl odds FAQ
Our Squawka Signal model rates every team from five seasons of results, adjusts for each side’s projected starting quarterback, then simulates the rest of the season tens of thousands of times. The figure is a model probability, not a sportsbook price.
The model refreshes as games are played — through the regular season and into the playoffs — so the numbers move with results, injuries and quarterback changes.
No. These are our Squawka Signal model’s probabilities, not a bookmaker’s price — a data-led read on the race, updated as games are played.
Licensed UK sportsbooks — BoyleSports, bet365 and Sky Bet — price NFL Super Bowl markets. See the links on this page, and please gamble responsibly.
The model’s current order is in the table above — it updates as the season plays out, so the favourite can change with results.