Outright Odds

Spain odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, of being England, tactics and stats ahead of Berlin showdown

By James Amey

Published: 8:14, 14 July 2024

Spain are searching for a record-breaking fourth European Championships trophy at Euro 2024.

Having won the competition in 1964, 2008 and 2012, Spain are the joint-most successful side in European Championship history and are now just one win away from taking the record outright.

After losing to Italy in the semi-finals at Euro 2020, Spain disappointed at the World Cup in Qatar, beaten by Morocco on penalties in the quarter-finals.

This time, they were well among the favourites to become the first side in the competition’s history to lift the famous trophy four times. And they’ve navigated their way through to the final, coming out on top in what was a tough road to Berlin.

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Latest Spain odds to win Euro 2024
Spain to win Euro 2024
Dani Olmo to win Golden Boot

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Spain’s route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • Spain 3-0 Croatia
  • Spain 1-0 Italy
  • Spain 1-0 Albania

Spain’s knockout stage opponents

As winners of Group B, Spain faced the best third-placed side from F in the last 16 with Georgia as their opponents, who they breezed past 4-1 after a false start. They then came out on top in a titanic battle against hosts Germany in the quarter-final, eventually picking up a 2-1 win with Mikel Merino’s winner coming in the final minute of extra-time.

Spain took on France in the semi-finals and despite going 1-0 down eventually turned things around to win 2-1. Now, England await in the showpiece final at Berlin’s Olympiastadion on Sunday.

How do Spain view England?

There’s no doubting Spain have been the best team at this tournament and their confidence will be high in Berlin on Sunday. However, England have shown the sort of grit, determination and refusal to accept defeat that is often the hallmark of champions, so there shouldn’t be any complacency.

In fact, Spain will be even more guarded when considering their head-to-head record against England. La Roja have won just 10 of their 27 all-time meetings against the Three Lions, losing 14 and drawing three. It’s even worse in competitive action, with Spain winning just two of eight head-to-heads, losing five times (including extra time and penalties). One of those wins was way back in the 1950 World Cup, while the most recent one was in the first group stage meeting in the 2018/19 Uefa Nations League — with England going on to beat Spain 3-2 in Seville in the return fixture en route to making the semi-finals.

At the European Championships, it’s been particularly miserable for Spain against England, with all three previous meetings at the tournament going the way of the latter — including on penalties in the Euro 96 quarter-final.

But then, of course, Spain did beat England in the 2023 Women’s World Cup final, giving La Roja a good source of recent inspiration.

The Spanish press haven’t exactly been impressed with England at this tournament and have are boasting plenty of confidence ahead of the final.

Marca have focused on England’s poor performances and the ‘deserved’ criticism they’ve received, though they begrudgingly credit Soutghate’s ability to ‘come up trumps’. You’ll struggle to find any credit for England on AS, either, with them running Rafael van der Vaart’s rant about the Three Lions being a ‘sh***y team’. AS columnist Alfredo Relano has even stated he’s happy for Spain to be facing England in the final, giving them an opportunity to beat the ‘inventors’ of football to complete a ‘straight flush’ alongside their victories over Germany and France.

As for Mundo Deportivo, they believe England have been ‘put into the final’ thanks to the refereeing of Felix Zwayer in the semi-final.

Southgate should be printing all of these reports and sticking them on the changing room wall. Team talk sorted.

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Spain’s key players for this year’s European Championship

Spain top Euros Golden Boot contender: Dani Olmo 

Alvaro Morata came into Euro 2024 having equalled his personal best for goals in a single top-flight season, netting 15 times for Atletico Madrid. He also boasts an impressive goalscoring record for Spain, behind the only player in the country’s history to score 3+ goals in multiple European Championship tournaments after hitting three goals in 2016 and 2020. He has one goal at Euro 2024 so far, netting Spain’s first in their opening 3-0 win over Croatia, but it’s going to take a massive effort for him to win the Golden Boot from here — even though he will be fit for the final despite a collision with a security guard after the semi-final win against France.

Spain’s most likely Golden Boot candidate now is Dani Olmo, who has scored in all three of their knockout games so far, while his two assists at the tournament give him a huge advantage if he ties with other players. However, he is adamant personal honours are not important.

“While we are winning, I really don’t care if I score or [goalkeeper] Unai Simon does. It’s all only about winning. Always,” he said.

Spain’s primary playmaker: Nico Williams

Nico Williams does his damage from the wings and has been something of an unsung hero for Spain.

Crossing is one of Williams’ many talents, with a team-high 23 crosses attempted at Euro 2024 so far. For Athletic Bilbao in La Liga, Williams recorded 11 assists from 47 chances created in 2023/24, with only one player setting up more goals. He also averaged 6.04 crosses attempted per 90 minutes in La Liga.

Spain’s card magnets & top tacklers: Rodri 

Despite committing just 41 fouls in the Premier League last season, Rodri picked up eight yellow cards, which is three more than he received in the whole of the 2021/22 and 2022/23 campaigns. It’s not the amount of fouls that the Man City man commits, but the type of fouls he makes, usually picking up bookings for stopping counters when the opposition are in transition. This has been a huge skill, knowing when your side is in danger and stopping the counter and something Pep Guardiola’s sides have always been guilty of (in the best possible way).

Rodri has already been booked three times at Euro 2024 so far, committing five fouls.

Spain’s rising star: Lamine Yamal 

In his short career, Lamine Yamal has already set countless records for both club and country. He is the youngest-ever player to both represent and score for Barcelona in La Liga, the youngest player to ever represent and score for Spain, the second-youngest player to debut in the Champions League and the youngest player to provide an assist in the Champions League. He has also made at least twice as many UCL appearances as any other 16-year-old in the competition’s history, so even at a young age he has the pedigree to impress on the biggest stages.

Speaking of records, a number have tumbled at Euro 2024. Yamal is now the youngest player to play, score and assist at a men’s European Championship. He has provided three assists and finally got his goal in the semi-final against France, a wonderful curling effort to equalise just days before his 17th birthday.

Spain set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Alvaro Morata
  • Free kicks: Rodri
  • Corners: Nico Williams

Spain tactical analysis and formation

Having worked with the U19s, U21s and the U23s, Luis de la Fuente has helped shape some of the players that he will now be working with in the senior squad, so will already have the advantage of the players knowing how he works.

Spain usually set up in a 4-4-3 formation with Manchester City’s midfield maestro Rodri in the centre of everything, but their full-backs are the key component in his set-up. With the likes of Alex Grimaldo, Dani Carvajal and Marc Cucurella at his disposal, he has a group of full-backs that can play advanced, almost as a wing-back type winger-hybrid like Grimaldo has been used to playing for his club side with impressive results.

Alongside one of the best holding midfielders in Rodri, De la Fuente has the likes of Pedri, Dani Olmo and Fabian Ruiz to form a midfield full of quality and grit, as well as players that can pick a pass when needed.

Up front, Alvaro Morata has led the line and is fit to play in the final as well, despite a collision with a security guard after the semi-final win against France.

It (the security guard’s challenge) was a yellow card and that’s it,” Morata joked, while Spanish outlet Marca say he has informed reporters there are no concerns over his fitness for the final.

The striker will be flanked by the fast and tricky Nico Williams, who has been linked with a host of top clubs this summer, and teenage sensation Lamine Yamal, with the likes of Mikel Oyarzabal and Ayoze Perez coming off the bench.

In goal, Unai Simon keeps his place between the sticks.

For all their beautiful football, Spain have displayed a nasty streak at this tournament, too. La Roja have committed 83 fouls at Euro 2024, the most at the tournament — although they are fourth when averaged per match (13.8) — and 33 more than England. And we all remember Nacho shoving Randal Kolo Muani’s head into the ground in the semi-final. 

England will have to keep their cool in the face of tactical fouls and a team hellbent on drawing cards from their opponents.

Spain Euro 2024 analysis

Although Spain have seen three players win the European Championship Golden Boot, including Villa and Torres in back-to-back years in 2008 and 2012 respectively, goalscoring is very much a shared responsibility. And it’s no different at Euro 2024.

Despite scoring 13 goals at the tournament, so far, Spain only have two players with more than one strike. They are Fabian Ruiz and Dani Olmo, who have both scored three and two respectively.  Spain have another seven players on one goal, as well as seven players to have provided at least one assist, including Yamal who has a team-high three.

Fabian is having the tournament of his life so far. He has both scored and assisted in two of his six at Euro 2024 so far, with no player ever doing so in three separate matches at a single European Championship. He’s taken 15 shots with five hitting the target, and created nine chances and three big chances, while also completing 11 take-ons.

While Fabian is by no means a new name, this is a tournament that has shown fans what he can do. It’s already led to the Spaniard being linked with a move away from Paris Saint-Germain, with Tottenham Hotspur among those reportedly interested.

Spain’s final squad

Unai Simon Goalkeeper 26 Athletic Club
David Raya Goalkeeper 28 Arsenal
Alex Remiro Goalkeeper 28 Real Sociedad
Jesus Navas Defender 38 Sevilla
Dani Carvajal Defender 32 Real Madrid
Aymeric Laporte Defender 30 Al Nassr
Nacho Defender 34 Real Madrid
Robin Le Normand Defender 27 Real Sociedad
Marc Cucurella Defender 25 Chelsea
Alex Grimaldo Defender 28 Bayer Leverkusen
Daniel Vivian Defender 24 Athletic Bilbao
Rodri Midfielder 27 Man City
Fabian Ruiz Midfielder 28 PSG
Mikel Merino Midfielder 27 Real Sociedad
Pedri Midfielder 21 Barcelona
Martin Zubimendi Midfielder 25 Real Sociedad
Alex Baena Midfielder 22 Villarreal
Fermin Lopez Midfielder 21 Barcelona
Alvaro Morata Forward 31 Atletico Madrid
Ferran Torres Forward 24 Barcelona
Dani Olmo Forward 26 RB Leipzig
Mikel Oyarzabal Forward 27 Real Sociedad
Nico Williams Forward 21 Athletic Bilbao
Joselu Forward 34 Real Madrid
Lamine Yamal Forward 16 Barcelona
Ayoze Perez Forward 30 Real Betis

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