For the first time in the Championship, a top-eight finish is the target that matters for many clubs. Under a newly-confirmed format, the end-of-season play-offs expand from four teams to six, meaning everyone from third to eighth is now in the promotion picture. Wolves are 1/7, Middlesbrough 2/5, Burnley 1/2 and Southampton 8/15 among the sides the market expects to be there comfortably, but the real intrigue is further down: Norwich City and Birmingham City are 10/11, with Sheffield United and Wrexham 5/4 and Millwall 13/8 as they chase the two brand-new play-off places. Lincoln City are the 8/1 outsiders. The market is win-only and the season starts on Friday 14 August. Find the Championship top-eight odds below.
Championship top-eight finish odds 2026/27
| Club | Odds |
|---|---|
| West Ham United | 1/12 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1/7 |
| Middlesbrough | 2/5 |
| Burnley | 1/2 |
| Southampton | 8/15 |
| Birmingham City | 10/11 |
| Norwich City | 10/11 |
| Sheffield United | 5/4 |
| Wrexham | 5/4 |
| Millwall | 13/8 |
| Derby County | 9/4 |
| Stoke City | 9/4 |
| West Bromwich Albion | 5/2 |
| Bristol City | 11/4 |
| Watford | 3/1 |
| Swansea City | 7/2 |
| Blackburn Rovers | 9/2 |
| Portsmouth | 9/2 |
| Queens Park Rangers | 5/1 |
| Bolton Wanderers | 11/2 |
| Cardiff City | 6/1 |
| Charlton Athletic | 6/1 |
| Preston North End | 7/1 |
| Lincoln City | 8/1 |
Odds from bet365, correct at the time of writing.
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What’s changed: the new six-team play-off format
The EFL has confirmed that, from 2026/27, the Championship play-offs will expand from four clubs to six, with the qualifying places widening from third-to-sixth to third-to-eighth. It is the biggest change to the second-tier promotion picture in decades, and it is why bookmakers are now pricing up a top-eight market where a top-six market used to sit.
The new structure works as follows:
- The top two are still promoted automatically, and the bottom three are still relegated — neither of those has changed.
- The clubs finishing third and fourth receive a bye straight into the semi-finals.
- The clubs finishing fifth to eighth contest single-leg quarter-final eliminators at the higher-placed side’s ground: fifth v eighth and sixth v seventh.
- Those two winners join third and fourth in the traditional two-legged semi-finals, and the semi-final winners meet in the Wembley final for the third and final promotion spot.
In total, the play-offs grow from five fixtures to seven, and two more clubs each season are handed a shot at the Premier League.
The favourites are already close to nailed on
The five shortest prices belong to sides expected to be in the mix all season. West Ham (1/12) and Wolves (1/7) drop in from the Premier League with parachute payments and, in the Hammers’ case, a retained manager in Nuno Espírito Santo; Wolves have brought Raúl Jiménez back to Molineux under new head coach César Peixoto. Middlesbrough (2/5) go again after losing last season’s play-off final, with Kim Hellberg backed by the £11m-plus signing of William Lankshear. Burnley (1/2), now managed by Belgian Nicky Hayen, made a statement with the €24m capture of Florentino Luís from Benfica, and Southampton (8/15) have spent well despite the off-field cloud of the “spygate” affair hanging over head coach Tonda Eckert. Birmingham City (10/11), unchanged under Chris Davies, complete the group most expected to be there.
The race for the new play-off places
Norwich City (10/11)
Norwich enter a fifth straight Championship season, and having missed last season’s top eight by four points they have turned to a high-profile appointment in Philippe Clement, the former Rangers, Monaco and Club Brugge boss. Midfielder Sam Field arrived from QPR and winger Andre Brooks from Sheffield United, with left-sided Darlin Yongwa a free signing from Lorient and Bruno Alves in on loan from Cruzeiro. Carrow Road expects a return to the play-off conversation.
Sheffield United (5/4)
Now in a third consecutive Championship campaign, Sheffield United rebuild again under Chris Wilder, back for a further spell in charge at Bramall Lane. The experienced Matt Doherty joined on a free from Wolves and winger Romelle Donovan on loan from Brentford, with academy full-back Sam Curtis returning from his loan at Chesterfield. A club that reached the play-off final two years ago has the pedigree to feature.
Wrexham (5/4)
Wrexham’s remarkable ascent continued with a seventh-placed finish on their Championship debut — an agonising one place outside the old play-offs, but comfortably inside the new top-eight bracket. Phil Parkinson, now five years into the job, has publicly welcomed the expanded format, and he has strengthened with the £5m-plus signing of Dan Imray from Crystal Palace and midfielder Ben Whiteman from Preston. Few clubs have more momentum.
Millwall (13/8)
Millwall were the best of the rest last season, finishing third and reaching the play-offs before falling short, and Alex Neil keeps them among the shorter prices for a repeat. The Den outfit added Belgian defender Mathis Servais from Mechelen and striker Taïryk Arconte from Rodez for fees, with Elkan Baggott, the free-transfer forward Lyndon Dykes and defender Dan Batth adding Championship experience. A tough, well-drilled side that few enjoy visiting.
Derby County (9/4)
Derby have climbed steadily under John Eustace, who left Blackburn to take charge and guided them to eighth last season — the final spot in the new-look play-off zone. The ambition has grown with the £6m-plus signing of Bobby Clark from Salzburg and the loan capture of prolific Ipswich forward Sam Szmodics, alongside free signings Filip Bilbija and Charlie Taylor. Pride Park is daring to dream of a top-eight finish becoming the norm.
Stoke City (9/4)
Stoke were among the summer’s bigger spenders as Mark Robins looks to convert investment into results in a campaign widely framed as make-or-break. Midfielder Ethan Galbraith arrived from Swansea for a fee in excess of £10m, with striker Milan Smit, midfielder Djibril Soumaré and defender Luke Graham also joining. After a run of mid-table finishes, the bet365 Stadium is demanding a step forward.
The rest of the field
West Brom (5/2), Bristol City (11/4) — now managed by former Lincoln boss Michael Skubala — and Watford (3/1) head the outside contenders, with Swansea 7/2. Blackburn and Portsmouth (9/2), QPR (5/1) and promoted Bolton (11/2) are next, while Cardiff and Charlton (6/1), Preston (7/1) and League One champions Lincoln City (8/1) are the sides the market expects to spend the season closer to the bottom half than the top eight.
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