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Serbia odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats and analysis

By Squawka News

Serbia odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats & full squad

Published: 19:45, 20 June 2024

Serbia’s hope of advancing from Group C were left hanging by a thread following a 1-1 draw with Slovenia. It could’ve been much worse for the Serbian side though with their equaliser coming deep in stoppage time. 

During their time as Yugoslavia, the Serbians boasted an excellent record at this tournament, reaching the 1960 and 1968 finals and finishing fourth in 1976, while they also made it to the quarter-finals of Euro 2000. However, despite a few World Cup appearances since then, they haven’t appeared again at the Euros solely as Serbia until now.

The Eagles boast a squad of strong players, while they finished second only to Hungary in their qualifying group, so nobody will be taking them lightly this summer.

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Latest Serbia odds to win Euro 2024
Serbia to win Euro 2024
Serbia to win Group C
Aleksandar Mitrovic to win Golden Boot

Serbia route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • 0-1 England (16 June 2024, 8pm, Veltins-Arena)
  • 1-1 Slovenia (20 June 2024, 2pm, Allianz Arena)
  • Denmark (25 June 2024, 8pm, Allianz Arena)

Serbia’s potential knockout stage opponents

If Serbia win Group C, they’ll await one of the best third-place teams. However, second is a far more realistic target for Dragan Stojkovic’s side with England also in their group. In that case, it’ll be the winner of Group A, which is most likely to be hosts Germany. From there, it’s most likely a lottery between whoever wins Group B — this year’s ‘group of death’ — between ItalySpain and Croatia, probably followed by PortugalFrance or Netherlands. And if Serbia make a remarkably unlikely final, expect any one of EnglandBelgium, once again France or Netherlands, or a side from the group of death.

There is also the prospect of Serbia going through as one of the best third-place teams, but that could present any number of scenarios. The only guarantee here is that the Eagles would then meet a group winner in the round of 16.

Serbia’s key players for this year’s European Championship

Serbia’s top Euros Golden Boot contender: Aleksandar Mitrovic

  • Key stat: Only eight players scored more goals during Euro 2024 qualifying than Aleksandar Mitrovic (5).

Simply put, if Serbia are to do well at this summer’s Euros, Aleksandar Mitrovic must bring his best form. Now plying his trade in Saudi Arabia, the former Fulham and Newcastle striker is his nation’s record goalscorer and boasts a remarkable return of 57 goals in 88 caps, leaving him at least 19 clear of any other player in Serbian history.

Mitrovic brought that form to the qualifying campaign as well, scoring five goals in seven appearances, with only eight players managing more. Among that group are the likes of Romelu Lukaku (14), Cristiano Ronaldo (10), Kylian Mbappe (9) and Harry Kane (8), so his place in the goalscoring charts carries no shame whatsoever.

Mitrovic’s record since joining Al Hilal has been frankly remarkable, with the 29-year-old hitting 31 goals and eight assists in 34 appearances. Of course, group-stage opponents like England and Denmark are sure to prove much more difficult to unlock this summer, but we all know just how effective Mitrovic’s physicality can be, not to mention his finishing prowess.

Serbia’s primary playmaker: Dusan Tadic

  • Key stat: Dusan Tadic provided more assists (4) than any other Serbian player during Euro 2024 qualifying.

He might be 35 years old, but Dusan Tadic remains a hugely important player for this Serbian side. Now turning out for Fenerbahce in Turkey, Tadic has notched 16 goals and 16 assists in 56 appearances across all competitions as the Istanbul giants narrowly missed out on a first Super Lig title since 2014 despite posting 99 points, while they also reached the Europa Conference League quarter-finals.

Tadic brought that form to the Euro 2024 qualifying campaign as well, notching more assists (4) than any other Serbian player — scoring two goals of his own — coming second only to Bruno Fernandes (11) among all nations for big chances created (7) and averaging four key passes per match; more than any other player in qualifying.

He might lack the dynamism he once did during his Ajax and Southampton days, but Tadic remains a remarkable force with the ball at his feet and one Serbia will lean on heavily in Germany this summer.

Serbia’s card magnets & top tacklers: Nikola Milenkovic

  • Key stat: No Serbian player received more yellow cards during Euro 2024 qualifying than Nikola Milenkovic (2).

Especially coming up against an English side boasting the likes of Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham, Serbia are probably going to need to partake in some dark arts if they’re to stand a chance during the group stages. Nikola Milenkovic has no problems with that.

The Fiorentina defender was one of just two Serbian players — alongside Andrija Zivkovic — to pick up more than one yellow card during qualifying, while at club level he was booked eight times across all competitions in 2023/24; four times in Serie A and four in the Europa Conference League — where he helped Fiorentina reach the final.

Milenkovic is the man most likely to go head-to-head with Kane, so it’ll be interesting to see how he handles the in-form Bayern Munich goalscorer.

Serbia’s rising star: Petar Ratkov

He only made his debut in October and has just six minutes of senior international football under his belt, but Petar Ratkov is seen as one of Serbian football’s biggest prospects right now after breaking through and managing 35 appearances for Red Ball Salzburg in the season just gone. Subsequently, he netted six goals and created three more. Head coach Stojkovic has seen the value in bringing him to Germany, and Ratkov will hope to gain some experience in a tournament environment.

Serbia’s set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Aleksandar Mitrovic
  • Free kicks: Dusan Tadic
  • Corners: Dusan Tadic

Serbia tactical analysis and formation

Serbia team stats from qualifying (average per game):

  • Corners in qualifying: 5.9
  • Shots on target: 4.6
  • Shots on target conceded: 2.75
  • Offsides: 1.63

Stojkovic has experimented with a couple of new systems during recent friendlies, but 3-4-2-1 remains his preferred set-up and in truth, it’s one that gets most of his best players on the pitch at once. It also adds numbers in key areas to allow Serbia to play out from the back and build through the pitch, with the Eagles averaging 62.4% possession during qualifying — only nine sides managed more.

In goal is Torino’s Vanja Milinkovic-Savic, who kept two clean sheets during qualifying. In front of him, the most likely centre-back trio is Milenkovic, Werder Bremen’s Milos Veljkovic and RB Salzburg rising star Strahinja Pavlovic, who will look to use this tournament to boost his already increasing reputation.

The midfield, of course, will feature Sergej Milinkovic-Savic who, despite now playing in Saudi Arabia, remains a force to be reckoned with. Sevilla’s Nemanja Gudelj has often been pushed forward into a destroyer role in midfield, allowing those around him to play with a little more freedom.

If fit, Filip Kostic will start at left wing-back. Despite struggling to find his best form with Juventus, his time with Eintracht Frankfurt proved him one of the most effective players in Europe in his position and he’ll be a key player for Serbia. On the right, Andrija Zivkovic is used more as a winger for PAOK but will be tasked with getting up and down the line for Serbia.

Mitrovic will lead the line, backed up by the creative exploits of Tadic. But in the other attacking midfield role, there has been a rotating cast of players. If Stojkovic wants his most talented players on the pitch at once, however, it simply has to be Dusan Vlahovic, who has 15 goals and four assists to his name in 25 Serie A appearances for Juventus this season.

Serbia’s final Euro 2024 squad

Predrag Rajković Goalkeeper 28 Mallorca
Vanja Milinković-Savić Goalkeeper 27 Torino
Đorđe Petrović Goalkeeper 24 Chelsea
Nemanja Gudelj Defender 32 Sevilla
Nikola Milenković Defender 26 Fiorentina
Strahinja Pavlović Defender 23 Red Bull Salzburg
Filip Mladenović Defender 32 Panathinaikos
Miloš Veljković Defender 28 Werder Bremen
Uroš Spajić Defender 31 Red Star Belgrade
Srđan Babić Defender 28 Spartak Moscow
Nemanja Stojić Defender 26 TSC Bačka Topola
Dušan Tadić Midfielder 35 Fenerbahçe
Filip Kostić Midfielder 31 Juventus
Sergej Milinković-Savić Midfielder 29 Al Hilal
Nemanja Maksimović Midfielder 29 Panathinaikos
Saša Lukić Midfielder 27 Fulham
Andrija Živković Midfielder 27 PAOK
Mijat Gaćinović Midfielder 29 AEK Athens
Ivan Ilić Midfielder 23 Torino
Srđan Mijailović Midfielder 30 Red Star Belgrade
Lazar Samardžić Midfielder 22 Udinese
Veljko Birmančević Midfielder 26 Sparta Prague
Aleksandar Mitrović Forward 29 Al Hilal
Luka Jović Forward 26 Milan
Dušan Vlahović Forward 24 Juventus
Petar Ratkov Forward 20 Red Bull Salzburg

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