Miami allow a 116.8 opponent passer rating and have recorded six sacks in six games. Both are the worst figures in the NFL. Our Patriots vs Dolphins prediction sends Drake Maye at them.
The New England Patriots are 4-3 and have thrown for 1,771 yards. The Miami Dolphins are 1-5 and let opponents convert 52.1% of third downs, the second-worst rate in the league.
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
New England PatriotsSquawka77%Market76%▬ Fair
Miami DolphinsSquawka23%Market24%▬ FairSquawka Signal is our model’s read against devigged market prices, updated after every result — not betting advice. How the NFL Signal works. 21+. Play responsibly. Full T&Cs & geo-restrictions apply: Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX.
Patriots vs Dolphins: our editor’s props
Two editor’s calls on this game, alongside the live Signal numbers.
AT Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Patriots vs Dolphins: 2026 form so far
A 4-3 team against a 1-5 team whose defense does not get off the field. The table sets each attack against what the opposite defense has actually allowed.
Patriots attack against the Dolphins defense
| Per game | Patriots offense | Dolphins allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 253.0 | 227.5 |
| Rushing yards | 122.0 | 110.2 |
| Yards per carry | 4.2 | 3.8 |
| Passer rating | 96.2 | 116.8 |
| Touchdowns | 2.7 | 3.0 |
| Third-down conversion | 39.5% | 52.1% |
| Red-zone conversion | 55.0% | 65.4% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.9 | 1.0 |
Dolphins attack against the Patriots defense
| Per game | Dolphins offense | Patriots allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 162.0 | 220.4 |
| Rushing yards | 131.5 | 95.3 |
| Yards per carry | 4.6 | 3.9 |
| Passer rating | 77.1 | 94.2 |
| Touchdowns | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Third-down conversion | 41.3% | 36.6% |
| Red-zone conversion | 56.2% | 54.5% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.7 | 2.4 |
Miami have six sacks in six games. No team in the NFL has fewer, and the next-lowest figure is eight.
Patriots vs Dolphins quarterback matchup
Drake Maye has 13 touchdown passes to eight interceptions at 96.4 and threw for 321 yards last week. Malik Willis has four to four at 77.1.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | Drake Maye | 24/31, 321 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 117.8 rtg | 141/214, 1784 yds, 13 TD, 8 INT, 96.4 rtg (7 games) |
| Dolphins | Malik Willis | 14/21, 208 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 130.7 rtg | 87/151, 1057 yds, 4 TD, 4 INT, 77.1 rtg (6 games) |
Patriots vs Dolphins injury report and team news
Miami allow a 116.8 opponent passer rating, the worst figure in the NFL.
Miami have recorded six sacks in six games, fewer than any team in the league.
Miami let opponents convert 52.1% on third down, second only to Dallas.
New England PatriotsMiami DolphinsA defense that cannot get off the field
A 116.8 opponent rating, six sacks in six games and 52.1% allowed on third down. Miami are worst, worst and second-worst in the NFL on those three.
New England are well placed to use it. Drake Maye has 1,784 passing yards and 13 touchdowns, and threw for 321 last week.
Miami’s eight interceptions thrown and 11 touchdowns scored are the other half of a 1-5 season. The one bright spot is a run game at 4.61 a carry.
Players to watch
- Drake Maye (NE, QB): 1,784 passing yards and 13 touchdowns in seven games.
- Hunter Henry (NE, TE): A steady outlet in an offense that has scored 160 points.
- Malik Willis (MIA, QB): Four touchdown passes at a 77.1 rating.
- Ollie Gordon II (MIA, RB): Fronts the one Miami phase that works, at 4.61 a carry.
How to watch Patriots vs Dolphins
Kickoff is 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, November 1 at Hard Rock Stadium, which is 3:25 PM CT and 1:25 PM PT. CBS has the regional broadcast.
| Detail | Patriots vs Dolphins |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, November 1, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 PM ET / 3:25 PM CT / 1:25 PM PT |
| Venue | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL |
| TV | CBS |
| Live stream | NFL+ / Paramount+ |
| Week | Week 8, 2026 NFL season |
Patriots vs Dolphins prediction and score projection
New England win 26-17. Miami cannot pressure a quarterback and cannot get off the field, which is a bad combination against the better passing game.
Our projected margin updates on this page as the week’s team news lands.
Every Week 8 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Panthers @ Packers | Packers 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Cardinals @ Cowboys | Cowboys 27-17 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Falcons @ Buccaneers | Buccaneers 24-21 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Ravens @ Bills | Bills 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Browns @ Steelers | Steelers 23-17 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Colts @ Jaguars | Jaguars 27-16 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Raiders @ Jets | Raiders 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Vikings @ Lions | Vikings 24-21 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Titans @ Bengals | Bengals 30-13 | Read |
| Sun 5:05 PM | Chargers @ Rams | Rams 26-16 | Read |
| Sun 5:25 PM | Chiefs @ Broncos | Chiefs 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 5:25 PM | Patriots @ Dolphins | Patriots 26-17 | You are here |
| Sun 9:20 PM | Eagles @ Commanders | Eagles 20-17 | Read |
| Mon 9:15 PM | Bears @ Seahawks | Seahawks 24-21 | Read |
For the rest of the week, see the full NFL picks page and our NFL betting coverage. The outright markets are priced in our Super Bowl board. Individual lines are covered in player prop betting.
Patriots vs Dolphins FAQ
New England. Our Signal model has the Patriots as clear favorites and the live number is in the Signal card on this page. New England are 4-3 at +17; Miami are 1-5 at -59.
4:25 PM ET on Sunday, November 1 at Hard Rock Stadium, which is 3:25 PM CT and 1:25 PM PT.
Six in six games, fewer than any team in the NFL.
Miami, at 116.8 — the worst figure in the league.
21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Signal probabilities and odds approximate at time of writing and subject to change