Our Texans vs Colts prediction puts an offense that cannot finish against a defense that cannot stop anything. Squawka Signal’s live read on this game, including where the value sits, updates on this page through the week.
The Houston Texans threw the ball 56 times against Cincinnati, gained 374 yards and scored six points, going nought from four in the red zone. The Indianapolis Colts have conceded a 118.2 passer rating and 5.4 yards a carry. Something has to give.
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
Houston TexansSquawka60%Market58%▬ Fair
Indianapolis ColtsSquawka40%Market42%▬ FairSquawka Signal is our model’s read against devigged market prices, updated after every result — not betting advice. How the NFL Signal works. 21+. Play responsibly. Full T&Cs & geo-restrictions apply: Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX.
Texans vs Colts: our editor’s props
Two editorial calls to sit alongside the live Signal numbers on this page.
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Texans vs Colts: 2026 form so far
Houston move the ball and do not score. Indianapolis score and do not stop anybody. The table sets each attack against what the other defense has actually allowed.
Texans attack against the Colts defense
| Per game | Texans offense | Colts allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 285.5 | 337.5 |
| Rushing yards | 92.0 | 177.0 |
| Yards per carry | 3.7 | 5.4 |
| Passer rating | 86.6 | 118.2 |
| Touchdowns | 2.0 | 4.0 |
| Third-down conversion | 36.4% | 36.4% |
| Red-zone conversion | 44.4% | 66.7% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 3.5 | 2.0 |
Colts attack against the Texans defense
| Per game | Colts offense | Texans allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 179.5 | 252.5 |
| Rushing yards | 110.5 | 85.5 |
| Yards per carry | 4.2 | 3.9 |
| Passer rating | 79.8 | 117.4 |
| Touchdowns | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Third-down conversion | 36.4% | 33.3% |
| Red-zone conversion | 83.3% | 50.0% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.0 | 3.5 |
Read these as a 2-game sample rather than settled form. Rates this early move a long way on one result.
Four touchdowns from 94 passing attempts is the Houston season in one line. Indianapolis have allowed eight touchdowns and 354 rushing yards at 5.4 a carry.
Texans vs Colts injury report and team news
C.J. Stroud completed 30 of 55 for 353 yards against Cincinnati without a touchdown or an interception, and Houston were nought from four in the red zone.
Jonathan Taylor carried 24 times for 92 yards and two touchdowns at Kansas City, taking him to four rushing scores in two games.
This section updates as soon as the Out, Doubtful and Questionable tags land.
Houston TexansIndianapolis ColtsWhere Texans vs Colts is decided
Houston’s red-zone record decides this. Nought from four against Cincinnati, 44.4% across the season, and four touchdowns from 94 passing attempts is not a rate that wins games however many yards it produces.
Indianapolis are the opposite. Eighty-three per cent of their own red-zone trips have ended in a score, and Jonathan Taylor has four rushing touchdowns already.
Nevertheless the Colts have conceded 675 passing yards and a 118.2 rating in two games. Houston will get chances; the question is whether they finish any of them.
Players to watch
- C.J. Stroud (HOU, QB): 353 yards from 55 attempts against Cincinnati, without a touchdown.
- Dalton Schultz (HOU, TE): Twelve catches for 140 yards in Week 2.
- Jonathan Taylor (IND, RB): Four rushing touchdowns in two games.
- Josh Downs (IND, WR): Seven catches for 72 yards at Kansas City.
How to watch Texans vs Colts
Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, September 27 at Lucas Oil Stadium, which is 12:00 PM CT and 10:00 AM PT. CBS has the regional broadcast.
| Detail | Texans vs Colts |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 27, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM CT / 10:00 AM PT |
| Venue | Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN |
| TV | CBS |
| Live stream | NFL+ / Paramount+ |
| Week | Week 3, 2026 NFL season |
Texans vs Colts prediction and score projection
Our Texans vs Colts prediction is an Indianapolis win, 26-20. The Colts finish drives and Houston, so far, do not.
The live win probability and the model’s projected margin update on this page through the week.
Every Week 3 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Falcons @ Packers | Packers 23-10 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Panthers @ Browns | Panthers 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Bengals @ Steelers | Bengals 20-13 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Texans @ Colts | Colts 26-20 | You are here |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Chiefs @ Dolphins | Chiefs 31-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Chargers @ Bills | Bills 31-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Patriots @ Jaguars | Patriots 20-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Jets @ Lions | Lions 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Seahawks @ Commanders | Seahawks 27-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Titans @ Giants | Titans 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Cardinals @ 49ers | 49ers 30-13 | Read |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Vikings @ Buccaneers | Vikings 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Ravens @ Cowboys | Ravens 30-24 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Raiders @ Saints | Raiders 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Rams @ Broncos | Rams 26-17 | Read |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Eagles @ Bears | Eagles 24-20 | Read |
Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL hub, and Signal rates every game on the NFL picks page.
Texans vs Colts FAQ
Indianapolis, at home. Both are 1-1, but the Colts have scored six touchdowns to Houston’s four and convert 83% of their red-zone trips.
1:00 PM ET on Sunday, September 27, at Lucas Oil Stadium.
They cannot finish drives. Nought from four in the red zone against Cincinnati, and four touchdowns from 94 passing attempts across two games.
Houston lost 20-6 at home to Cincinnati. Indianapolis lost 33-30 at Kansas City.
21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Signal probabilities and odds approximate at time of writing and subject to change