Our Cowboys vs Texans prediction sends the league’s sharpest third-down offense to a 0-3 team whose defense has been the problem in none of its three defeats. Squawka Signal’s live read on this game, including where the value sits, updates on this page through the week.
The Dallas Cowboys convert 57.1% on third down and have scored 10 touchdowns. The Houston Texans have 11 sacks, more than all but two teams, and have still lost all three games. NRG Stadium hosts the widest gap on the card between a defense and a record.
Cowboys vs Texans: our editor’s props
Two editorial calls to sit alongside the live Signal numbers on this page.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Cowboys vs Texans: 2026 form so far
A good offense against a good defense, and two records that do not reflect either. The table puts each attack against what the opposite side has actually allowed.
Cowboys attack against the Texans defense
| Per game | Cowboys offense | Texans allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 236.0 | 238.7 |
| Rushing yards | 94.3 | 86.7 |
| Yards per carry | 4.1 | 3.5 |
| Passer rating | 107.2 | 104.3 |
| Touchdowns | 3.3 | 2.3 |
| Third-down conversion | 57.1% | 38.5% |
| Red-zone conversion | 75.0% | 42.9% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.0 | 3.7 |
Texans attack against the Cowboys defense
| Per game | Texans offense | Cowboys allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 241.3 | 207.3 |
| Rushing yards | 84.7 | 179.7 |
| Yards per carry | 3.6 | 5.0 |
| Passer rating | 87.3 | 121.3 |
| Touchdowns | 2.0 | 3.3 |
| Third-down conversion | 36.4% | 58.8% |
| Red-zone conversion | 50.0% | 69.2% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 3.3 | 0.7 |
Read these as a 3-game sample rather than settled form. Rates this early move a long way on one result.
Dallas convert 57.1% on third down and allow their opponents 58.8%, which is the clearest statement of what this team is. Houston’s 11 sacks are the reason it stays close.
Cowboys vs Texans quarterback matchup
Dak Prescott and C.J. Stroud have 10 touchdown passes and one interception between them, which is not what an 0-3 record usually looks like.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | Dak Prescott | 25/40, 276 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 91.3 rtg | 73/105, 730 yds, 7 TD, 1 INT, 107.2 rtg (3 games) |
| Texans | C.J. Stroud | 16/27, 167 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 89.6 rtg | 72/120, 794 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 88.0 rtg (3 games) |
Cowboys vs Texans injury report and team news
Dak Prescott has thrown seven touchdowns to a single interception in three games, a ratio bettered only by Brock Purdy’s nine to one.
C.J. Stroud threw for 167 yards at Indianapolis, Houston’s lowest passing output of the season, in a 19-17 defeat that left them 0-3.
This section updates as soon as the Out, Doubtful and Questionable tags land.
Where Cowboys vs Texans is decided
Dallas have allowed 539 rushing yards at 5.0 a carry, and Baltimore ran for 192 of them in Week 3 alone. Houston, though, average 3.6 a carry and have run for only 254 yards all season, so the obvious route to exploiting that is one they are poorly equipped for.
Houston’s pass rush is real. Eleven sacks in three games, with Will Anderson Jr. on four of them, against a Dallas line that has conceded three. That mismatch is the case for the home side.
Even so, the Texans have scored six touchdowns in three games and have not passed 20 points since Week 1. A defense this good keeps them in every game; the offense has not yet won them one.
Players to watch
- Dak Prescott (DAL, QB): 276 yards against Baltimore, and seven touchdowns to one interception this season.
- CeeDee Lamb (DAL, WR): Seven catches for 112 yards in Week 3, and 309 receiving yards this season.
- Will Anderson Jr. (HOU, DE): Two and a half sacks at Indianapolis, four in three games.
- C.J. Stroud (HOU, QB): 794 passing yards and three touchdowns without an interception this season.
How to watch Cowboys vs Texans
Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 4 at NRG Stadium, which is 12:00 PM CT and 10:00 AM PT. FOX has the regional broadcast.
| Detail | Cowboys vs Texans |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 4, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM CT / 10:00 AM PT |
| Venue | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX |
| TV | FOX |
| Live stream | NFL+ / Fubo |
| Week | Week 4, 2026 NFL season |
Cowboys vs Texans prediction and score projection
Our Cowboys vs Texans prediction is a Dallas win, 27-24. Houston’s front will make this uncomfortable, but a side averaging two touchdowns a game has to score more than it has been to win it.
The live win probability and the model’s projected margin update on this page through the week.
Every Week 4 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Steelers @ Browns | Browns 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:30 AM | Colts @ Commanders | Commanders 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Cardinals @ Giants | Cardinals 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Cowboys @ Texans | Cowboys 27-24 | You are here |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Packers @ Buccaneers | Packers 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Jaguars @ Bengals | Jaguars 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Rams @ Eagles | Rams 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Patriots @ Bills | Bills 30-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Jets @ Bears | Bears 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Titans @ Ravens | Ravens 27-13 | Read |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Dolphins @ Vikings | Vikings 24-13 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Broncos @ 49ers | 49ers 31-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Chiefs @ Raiders | Chiefs 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Chargers @ Seahawks | Seahawks 27-17 | Read |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Lions @ Panthers | Lions 31-24 | Read |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Falcons @ Saints | Saints 26-23 | Read |
Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL hub, and Signal rates every game on the NFL picks page.
Cowboys vs Texans FAQ
Dallas, narrowly, despite playing away. The Cowboys are 1-2 with 10 touchdowns; Houston are 0-3 with six.
1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 4, at NRG Stadium.
Houston have 11 sacks but only six touchdowns in three games. Their three defeats came by five, 14 and two points.
Dallas lost 34-31 to Baltimore. Houston lost 19-17 at Indianapolis.
21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Signal probabilities and odds approximate at time of writing and subject to change