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    New England Patriots

    New England Patriots Odds & Predictions

    AFCAFC EastElo 1638.7 · #5 of 32
    0-02026 record

    Squawka Signal’s projected line and win probability for every Patriots game this season, plus AFC East standings and Super Bowl odds.

    Squawka SignalModel vs market

    Patriots 2026 outlook

    71.9%Make playoffs
    34.2%Win AFC East
    9.6%No.1 seed
    10.3%Win AFC
    5.1%Win Super Bowl
    MarketSquawkaKalshiPolymarketGapRead
    Patriots Super Bowl odds5.1%4.2%3.8%+0.9Fair
    Patriots AFC Championship odds10.3%9.1%9.7%+0.6Fair
    Patriots AFC East odds34.2%Model read
    Next game · Week 1SEAat Seattle SeahawksWed Sep 9, 8:20 PM ET

    Moneyline

    Squawka36% (+178)
    Market38% (+163)
    Gap-1.5 pts

    Against the spread

    ProjectedNE +3.8
    MarketNE +3.0
    Total44.0

    Signal read

    Fair
    Spread 
    No edge
    KalshiPolymarketProphetX

    Squawka Signal is a 538-lineage Elo model with a 10,000-run Monte Carlo season simulation. Market prices are de-vigged to fair probability. Model numbers are a view, not a guarantee. 21+. Play responsibly.

    AFC East standings and division odds

    Records begin after Week 1. Division and playoff odds are the model’s, from a 10,000-run season simulation.

    TeamRecordWin AFC EastPlayoffs
    BUFBuffalo Bills–63.8%88.2%
    NENew England Patriots–34.2%71.9%
    MIAMiami Dolphins–1.8%8.4%
    NYJNew York Jets–0.2%1.3%
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    New England Patriots schedule, results and lines

    Every game with the model’s win probability and projected line, against the market spread where it’s priced.

    WK 1@SEASeattle SeahawksWed Sep 9, 8:20 PM ET36%win prob+3.8proj line+3.0market lineRead preview
    WK 2vsPITPittsburgh SteelersSun Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET61%win prob-2.8proj line-213market price
    WK 3@JACJacksonville JaguarsSun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET44%win prob+1.7proj line–market
    WK 4@BUFBuffalo BillsSun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET41%win prob+2.3proj line–market
    WK 5vsLVLas Vegas RaidersSun Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET81%win prob-9.6proj line–market
    WK 6vsNYJNew York JetsSun Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET80%win prob-9.2proj line–market
    WK 7@CHIChicago BearsThu Oct 22, 8:15 PM ET51%win prob-0.3proj line–market
    WK 8@MIAMiami DolphinsSun Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET61%win prob-2.9proj line–market
    WK 9vsGBGreen Bay PackersSun Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET60%win prob-2.6proj line–market
    WK 10@DETDetroit Lions Neutral siteSun Nov 15, 9:30 AM ET52%win prob-0.5proj line–market
    WK 11Bye week
    WK 12@LACLos Angeles ChargersSun Nov 29, 8:20 PM ET49%win prob+0.2proj line–market
    WK 13vsBUFBuffalo BillsSun Dec 6, 4:25 PM ET51%win prob-0.3proj line–market
    WK 14vsMINMinnesota VikingsThu Dec 10, 8:15 PM ET57%win prob-1.8proj line–market
    WK 15@KCKansas City ChiefsMon Dec 21, 8:15 PM ET57%win prob-1.9proj line–market
    WK 16@NYJNew York JetsSun Dec 27, 1:00 PM ET73%win prob-6.5proj line–market
    WK 17vsDENDenver Broncos FlexSun Jan 3, 1:00 PM ET49%win prob+0.4proj line–market
    WK 18vsMIAMiami Dolphins FlexSun Jan 10, 1:00 PM ET70%win prob-5.6proj line–market

    Patriots injury report

    Official designations for Week 1.

    PlayerPosStatusInjury
    Ben BrownCOutKnee

    Latest Patriots coverage

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    New England Patriots roster

    78 players · tap to open

    Offense 38

    #PlayerPosExpCollege
    16Tommy DeVitoQB4Illinois
    10Drake MayeQB3North Carolina
    15Behren MortonQBTexas Tech
    26Hassan HaskinsRB4Michigan
    32TreVeyon HendersonRB2Ohio State
    9Corey KinerRB2Cincinnati
    34Lan LarisonRB2UC Davis
    38Rhamondre StevensonRB6Oklahoma
    44Reggie GilliamFB7Toledo
    1A.J. BrownWR8Ole Miss
    83Kyle DixonWRCulver-Stockton
    88Cameron DornerWRNorth Texas
    87Romeo DoubsWR5Nevada
    3DeMario DouglasWR4Liberty
    13Mack HollinsWR10North Carolina
    86Efton Chism IIIWR2Eastern Washington
    29Jeremiah WebbWR1South Alabama
    18Kyle WilliamsWR2Washington State
    84Tanner ArkinTEIllinois
    85Hunter HenryTE11Arkansas
    80Julian HillTE4Campbell
    81Cameron LatuTE3Alabama
    82Eli RaridonTENotre Dame
    80Shane ZylstraTE5Minnesota State
    77Ben BrownC4Ole Miss
    55Jared WilsonC2Georgia
    63Jake KubasG2North Dakota State
    75Alijah Vera-TuckerG6USC
    52Marcus BryantOT2Missouri
    66Will CampbellOT2LSU
    68Dametrious CrownoverOTTexas A&M
    74Caleb LomuOTUtah
    61Lorenz MetzOT1Cincinnati
    76Morgan MosesOT13Virginia
    72Walter RouseT3Oklahoma
    71Mike OnwenuOL7Michigan
    64Jacob RizyOLFlorida State
    70Greg Van RotenOL12Pennsylvania

    Defense 36

    #PlayerPosExpCollege
    5Dre'Mont JonesDE8Ohio State
    90Christian BarmoreDT6Alabama
    92Joshua FarmerDT2Florida State
    95Eric GregoryDT2Arkansas
    93Leonard Taylor IIIDT3Miami (FL)
    62Isaiah ItonDT2Rutgers
    98Jeremiah Pharms Jr.DT3Friends
    97Milton WilliamsDT6Louisiana Tech
    94Cory DurdenNT2North Carolina State
    35K.J. BrittLB6Auburn
    53Christian EllissLB5Idaho
    49Erick HunterLBMorgan State
    45Quintayvious HutchinsLBBoston College
    50Gabe JacasLBIllinois
    27Khalil JacobsLBMissouri
    54Darius MuasauLB3UCLA
    48Namdi ObiazorLBTCU
    91Elijah PonderLB2Cal Poly
    14Robert SpillaneLB8Western Michigan
    51Riley WilsonLBArizona
    2Harold Landry IIIOLB9Boston College
    43Jose RamirezOLB1Eastern Michigan
    29Channing CanadaCBTCU
    0Christian GonzalezCB4Oregon
    7Carlton Davis IIICB8Auburn
    25Marcus JonesCB5Houston
    21Karon PruntyCBWake Forest
    28Kindle VildorCB7Georgia Southern
    22Charles WoodsCB3SMU
    33Mike BrownSAF4Miami (OH)
    27Elliott DavisonSAF1UTSA
    31Kevin Byard IIISAF11Middle Tennessee
    24Dell PettusSAF3Troy
    23Jaylen ReedSAF2Penn State
    41Brenden SchoolerSAF5Texas
    4Craig WoodsonSAF2California

    Special teams 4

    #PlayerPosExpCollege
    36Andy BorregalesK2Miami (FL)
    17Bryce BaringerP4Michigan State
    19Mitch WishnowskyP8Utah
    47Julian AshbyLS2Vanderbilt