Outright Odds

Italy Euro 2024 outright odds: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats & key players as last 16 looms

By Squawka News

Published: 10:05, 29 June 2024

Italy left it late but qualified for the European Championships knockout stages with a 1-1 draw against Croatia in their final Group B game.

The Azzurri went all the way at Euro 2020, beating England on penalties in the final at Wembley, winning this competition for the first time since 1968. However, since then it’s not all been smooth sailing. Italy failed to make the World Cup for the second time in a row and replaced Roberto Mancini with Luciano Spalletti, who won Serie A with Napoli in 2022/23. That said, the Italians did finish third at the Uefa Nations League for the second time in a row and finished second only to England in their qualifying group for this tournament.

As holders and simply given who they are, there will always be a certain level of expectation around Italy at major tournaments.

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Latest Italy odds to win Euro 2024
Italy to win Euro 2024
Gianluca Scamacca to win Golden Boot

Italy route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Luciano Spalletti’s men had to come from behind in their opening fixture after a blistering start from Albania saw them take a 1-0 lead at Westfalenstadion, before goals from Alessandro Bastoni and Nicolo Barella turned the game on its head. And they fell to defeat to Spain in their second game, leaving them fighting for second. It looked like the Azzurri would have to settle for third and face a nervous wait to see if they’d make it to the last 16 after Luka Modric gave Croatia the lead in their final match, but Lazio’s Mattia Zaccagni stepped up in the 98th minute to fire home an equaliser, securing second place.

Group stage fixtures

  • Albania 1-2 Italy
  • Spain 1-0 Italy
  • Croatia 1-1 Italy

Italy’s potential knockout stage opponents

Italy just about finished second in Group B, meaning they’ll play runners-up of Group A Switzerland in the round of 16. Read our Switzerland v Italy prediction here.

If they can beat the Swiss, Italy will face England, a replay of the Euro 2020 final, or Slovakia.

Then they could face the Netherlands in the semi-finals, before taking on Germany, France or Spain in the final.

Italy key players for this year’s European Championship

Italy top Euros Golden Boot contender: Gianluca Scamacca

  • Key stat: Gianluca Scamacca averaged a goal every 117 minutes for Atalanta in 2023/24.

In reality with no goals so far, Scammaca has some catching up to do if he is to win the Golden Boot. However, a hat-trick — a tall order, granted — would put him joint-top alongside Georgia’s Georges Mikautadze based on current standings.

There is also a question mark as to whether he will continue to lead the line, as Spaletti switched to a 3-5-2 against Croatia with Mateo Retegui and Mattia Zaccagni up top.

However, Scamacca has had an impressive season with Europa League winners Atalanta, scoring 18 goals and providing a further seven assists in 39 appearances (26 starts) across Serie A and the Europa League in 2023/24. He was also in red-hot form going into the tournament, with no player being directly involved in more goals since the last international break at the end of March than the Italian in Europe’s top five leagues (10 goals and 4 assists). 

Italy primary playmaker: Nicolo Barella

  • Key stat: No Italian player registered more assists than Nicolo Barella (3) during Euro 2024 qualifying.

He doesn’t always get the full credit he deserves but Nicolo Barella is one of the best central midfielders on the planet right now and has proved it in helping Inter storm to the Serie A title. Now, his creative spark has dimmed somewhat at club level as he takes on other responsibilities, providing four assists across all competitions this season, compared to returns of nine, 12 and 10 in his previous three campaigns. However, at international level, he continues to prove effective in the final third and no Italian player provided more assists during qualifying than Barella (3).

At the Euros so far, he has yet to assist but has created four chances, the joint most in the team.

Italy card magnets & top tacklers: Giovanni Di Lorenzo

  • Key stat: Di Lorenzo was booked (3) more than any other Italian player during qualifying.

Italy were one of the cleanest sides in Euro 2024 qualifying, with just 14 yellow cards to their name and no reds. For comparison, the most-booked nation was Luxembourg with 35 yellows, while Wales received the most red cards (3). Giovanni Di Lorenzo was responsible for over 21% of those yellow cards with a team-high three, while he committed six fouls to leave him second only to Nicolo Zaniolo (8) among his teammates.

This all tracks quite well with Di Lorenzo’s form at club level for Napoli, where he has received a team-high six yellow cards in Serie A this season. It’s not that the full-back is an inherently dirty player, it’s just that he has that gritty determination to occasionally bend the rules in order to stop his opposing winger.

He has also made 10 tackels for Italy so far at Euro 2024, the most  of any player in the squad.

Italy rising star: Riccardo Calafiori

There are a few young names missing out for Italy due to injury, including Destiny Udogie and Giorgio Scalvini. But Riccardo Calafiori is making his mark. The 22-year-old centre-back played 30 times for Bologna in Serie A and recorded five assists, while also making 74 clearances and winning possession 107 times in the defensive third.

He has started all three of Italy’s games so far, making six interceptions, three tackles and eight clearances so far. He was the unfortunate one to put the ball in the back of his net as Italy lost 1-0 to Spain, but that shouldn’t count against him.

Italy set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Jorginho
  • Free kicks: Federico Dimarco
  • Corners: Nicolo Barella

Italy tactical analysis and formation

Italy team stats from Euro 2024 so far (average per game):

  • Corners: 6
  • Shots on target: 3
  • Shots on target faced:4.7
  • Offsides: 1.3

Spalletti has experimented with three-at-the-back systems in recent friendlies against Ecuador and Venezuela, but it’s difficult to see him making that a permanent switch so close to the tournament. With that in mind, the 4-3-3 that got them here feels like the most balanced, allowing them to get more central midfielders onto the pitch, which is the area where Italy have the most talent.

The Azzurri will look to dominate possession having averaged a 62.6% share during qualifying. But against tougher opponents, they’re more than capable of soaking up pressure and using those mobile midfielders like Barella and Davide Frattesi to launch counter attacks.

Italy’s final squad

Gianluigi Donnarumma Goalkeeper 25 PSG
Guglielmo Vicario Goalkeeper 27 Tottenham Hotspur
Alex Meret Goalkeeper 27 Napoli
Giovanni Di Lorenzo Defender 30 Napoli
Federico Dimarco Defender 26 Inter
Alessandro Buongiorno Defender 24 Torino
Riccardo Calafiori Defender 22 Bologna
Matteo Darmian Defender 34 Inter
Gianluca Mancini Defender 27 Roma
Alessandro Bastoni Defender 24 Inter
Andrea Cambiaso Defender 24 Juventus
Raoul Bellanova Defender 23 Torino
Nicolo Barella Midfielder 27 Inter
Jorginho Midfielder 32 Arsenal
Bryan Cristante Midfielder 29 Roma
Lorenzo Pellegrini Midfielder 27 Roma
Davide Frattesi Midfielder 24 Inter
Michael Folorunsho Midfielder 26 Hellas Verona
Federico Chiesa Forward 26 Juventus
Stephan El Shaarawy Forward 31 Roma
Giacomo Raspadori Forward 24 Napoli
Gianluca Scamacca Forward 25 Atalanta
Mateo Retegui Forward 25 Genoa
Mattia Zaccagni Forward 28 Lazio

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