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Germany odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, most likely XI, analysis and key players ahead of quarter-final

By Harry Edwards

Published: 10:20, 5 July 2024

Germany have made home comforts count at Euro 2024 so far, reaching the quarter-finals.

Die Mannschaft are three-time winners of the European Championships but haven’t lifted the trophy since 1996. Three years ago, Germany underwhelmed at the Euros, knocked out in the round of 16 with a 2-0 defeat to eventual runners-up England.

This time around, Germany opened their tournament with a 5-1 win over Scotland and 2-0 victory against Hungary. There was even time for a dramatic end to the group as Niclas Fullkrug’s 92nd-minute goal salvaged a 1-1 draw against Switzerland, thus confirming top spot.

Denmark were their first knockout stage opponents, but the hosts came out on top, running out 2-0 winners to set up a thrilling quarter-final.

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Latest Germany odds to win Euro 2024
Germany to win Euro 2024
Jamal Musiala to win the golden boot

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Germany route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • 5-1 vs Scotland
  • 2-0 vs Hungary
  • 1-1 vs Switzerland

Germany’s potential knockout stage opponents

As winners of Group A, Germany faced Group C runners-up, Denmark, and they got through that, meaning their quarter-final opponents are the Group B winners, Spain.

Then it’s a potential semi-final against one of Portugal or France. The final could pit Germany against the likes of Netherlands or England, or maybe even a dark horse like Turkey or Switzerland.

Germany key players for this year’s European Championship

Germany top Euros Golden Boot contender: Jamal Musiala

It goes without saying that Germany endured a painful 2022 World Cup exit, with Die Mannschaft suffering a new low in a period where they’ve drifted away from their usual position among Europe’s powerhouses. However, in Qatar, there was a bright spot in the guise of emerging youngster Jamal Musiala, who has since established himself in Bayern Munich’s first team and for the national team.

So far at Euro 2024, he’s leading Nagelsmann’s attack with three goals, a historic performance when you consider that only Wayne Rooney (four) has scored more goals aged 21 and under at the UEFA European Championship finals than him. He’s also scored more goals at Euro 2024 than in his first 29 appearances for the national team (two).

Of course, you cannot rule out Kai Havertz, either. Often maligned in English football, the former Leverkusen man has burst into life in recent months and is thoroughly enjoying himself at these Euros, running up some incredibly impressive stats along the way:

Don’t forget, Havertz has been on penalty duty for Germany so far.

Germany primary playmaker: Toni Kroos

Three years ago, Germany’s disappointing campaign at Euro 2024 led Toni Kroos to retire from international duty. However, with Germany hosting t, Kroos, who plans to retire from football after this summer, felt compelled to make a comeback. His return has positively impacted Germany’s performance, and in his first match back against France, Kroos only needed seven seconds to record his 20th assist at this level.

Kroos has created the most opportunities for the host country, with nine chances. Additionally, he’s set a record by completing 324 passes in the group stages of Euro 2024, the highest number ever achieved by a player in a single group stage at the European Championship. Among all players who have played 1,000+ minutes in the competition since 1980, Kroos has the highest average of passes completed per 90 minutes, with 92 passes.

Germany card magnets & top tacklers: Robert Andrich

Among a handful of players to make their international debuts under Nagelsmann, it’s been an interesting ride for Robert Andrich, who has cemented his place in Germany’s midfield. The 29-year-old played an integral role as Bayer Leverkusen shattered Bayern Munich’s supremacy in the Bundesliga, collecting four yellow cards. He’s already picked up one at Euro 2024 while committing a team-high eight fouls and 12 tackles. Andrich’s aggressive play contrasts with Kroos’ calmness, creating a complementary dynamic in midfield.

Germany rising star: Maximilian Beier

Germany have some young players already establishing themselves in Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala. But the next big thing right now appears to be Maximilian Beier. Although 21, Beier enjoyed a real breakthrough season with Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga after two years on loan with Hannover in the second tier.

The striker scored 16 goals in 33 games in the Bundesliga in 2023/24, including two against Borussia Dortmund and one vs Bayer Leverkusen. He’ll gain valuable experience in the squad and has featured for 25 minutes off the bench so far.

Germany set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Kai Havertz
  • Free kicks: Toni Kroos
  • Corners: Toni Kroos

Germany tactical analysis and formation

Since being installed as Germany’s manager, Julian Nagelsmann has predominantly used a 4-2-3-1 formation, and he’s not deviated from what has worked. In this system, Nagelsmann looks settled on Toni Kroos and Robert Andrich as the double pivot, with Ilkay Gundogan pushing forward in the No.10 role. Kimmich drops to right-back in this formation, with Antonio Rudiger and Jonathan Tah at centre-back and Maximilian Mittelstadt on the left. There was a question of who plays in goal, but Manuel Neuer remains the No.1 and looked much closer to his former self against Denmark. Further up the pitch, Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala flank Gundogan, with Kai Havertz recently favoured as the starting centre forward.

The only changes Nagelsmann made to his line-up against Denmark were Leroy Sane, David Raum and Nico Schlotterbeck coming in for Wirtz, Mittelstadt and Tah, but it’d be surprising not to see at least a couple of those benched players come back into the starting XI against Spain.

Germany Euro 2024 analysis

Germany are the top scorers at Euro 2024 so far, the only side to hit double figures for goals at the tournament, reaching 10 in their last-16 win over Denmark. And it’s easy to see why with the finishing clinics they have been putting on.

As well as leading for goals, Germany sit top of Euro 2024 for Expected Goals and Expected Goals on Target at 7.68 and 11.4 respectively. Alone those stats are impressive, but it gets better with some simple matches. Germany are out-performing their xG by a total of 2.32, more than any other team at the tournament. Only three teams have out-performed their xG at Euro 2024 by more than one, and one of those was Scotland who had an own goal scored in their favour to inflate their goals.

That difference between goals and xG for Germany can also be explained by the quality of their finishing. Germany have a difference of 3.72 between their xG and xGOT, again the highest at Euro 2024. For those who may not know, xGOT measures the post-shot quality of efforts on target. As well as factoring in the xG, it takes into account where the shot ends in the goalmouth — so shots in the top corner will have a higher xGOT that efforts that go straight down the middle.

So in Germany’s case, they have been boosting their chances of scoring at Euro 2024 by their shot placement.

Jamal Musiala is the best for this at Euro 2024 among the German squad, with a difference of 1.26 between his xG and xGOT. It’s no surprise that he’s scored three goals.

Germany’s final squad

Manuel Neuer Goalkeeper 38 Bayern Munich
Oliver Baumann Goalkeeper 34 Hoffenheim
Marc-Andre ter Stegen Goalkeeper 32 Barcelona
Waldemar Anton Defender 27 Stuttgart
Benjamin Henrichs Defender 27 RB Leipzig
Joshua Kimmich Defender 29 Bayern Munich
Robin Koch Defender 27 Eintracht Frankfurt
Maximilian Mittelstadt Defender 27 Stuttgart
David Raum Defender 26 RB Leipzig
Antonio Rudiger Defender 31 Real Madrid
Nico Schlotterbeck Defender 24 Borussia Dortmund
Jonathan Tah Defender 28 Bayer Leverkusen
Robert Andrich Midfielder 29 Bayer Leverkusen
Chris Fuhrich Midfielder 26 Stuttgart
Pascal Groß Midfielder 32 Brighton & Hove Albion
Ilkay Gundogan Midfielder 33 Barcelona
Toni Kroos Midfielder 34 Real Madrid
Jamal Musiala Midfielder 21 Bayern Munich
Aleksandar Pavlovic Midfielder 20 Bayern Munich
Leroy Sane Midfielder 28 Bayern Munich
Florian Wirtz Midfielder 21 Bayer Leverkusen
Maximilian Beier Forward 21 Hoffenheim
Niclas Fullkrug Forward 31 Borussia Dortmund
Kai Havertz Forward 25 Arsenal
Thomas Muller Forward 34 Bayern Munich
Deniz Undav Forward 27 Stuttgart