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Georgia odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats and key players

By Mohamed Moallim

Published: 18:30, 18 June 2024

Georgia made their international tournament debut but, ultimately, came up short with a 3-1 loss to Turkey in their opening match.

In their 15th attempt as an independent nation since the Soviet Union broke up, the Crusaders successfully navigated the Euro 2024 playoffs, overcoming Luxembourg and Greece on penalties.

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However, they arrive in Germany as firm underdogs. Still, the spirit they’ve shown under Willy Sagnol’s leadership suggests enough talent within Georgia’s set-up that an upset—at least in the group phase—is possible.

Latest Georgia odds to win Euro 2024
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Georgia to win Euro 2024
Georgia to win Group F

Georgia route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • 1-3 vs Turkey (18 June 2024, 5pm, Westfalenstadion)
  • Czech Republic (22 June 2024, 2pm, Volksparkstadion)
  • Portugal  (26 June 2024, 8pm, Arena AufSchalke)

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Georgia potential knockout stage opponents

Should Georgia win Group F, they will face off against a third-best-ranked team from either Group A, B, or C in the Round of 16. A triumph in the first knockout phase will set them up for a potential quarter-final match with the Netherlands. If they continue to win, Georgia will likely face Spain or Germany in the semi-finals, with a possible final meeting with France in Berlin.

Georgia key players for this year’s European Championship

Georgia top Euros Golden Boot contender: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia

  • Key stat: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (15) is third on Georgia’s all-time top scorers list behind Temur Ketsbaia (17) and Shota Arveladze (26)

There is no question who Gerogia’s most standout player is and, in essence, their biggest goalscoring threat. Since joining Napoli from Dinamo Batumi, the 23-year-old Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has scored 25 goals in 88 appearances while finishing as his nation’s leading scorer in their historic European Championship qualifying campaign with four goals. Last season, he netted 11 goals in a disappointing title defence. Kvaratskhelia is far and away is nation’s biggest hope this summer.

Georgia primary playmaker: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia

  • Key stat: No one representing Georgia created more chances across Europe’s big five leagues than Khvicha Kvaratskhelia last season.

If a term could describe Kvaratskhelia, it’s a dual threat. He can seamlessly find the net, and Georgia’s most valuable player is also a creative machine. He was Serie A’s number-one playmaker during his debut season with 13 assists and he managed eight in the follow-up campaign despite Napoli underwhelming. However, no international teammate has produced more across Europe’s big five leagues, and the Tiflis native was their creator-in-chief during the Euro 2024 qualifying phase (three assists).

Georgia card magnets & top tacklers: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia

  • Key stat: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia committed 0.70 fouls per 90 minutes in Serie A last season.

It may seem Georgia are a one-man team, but that’s not the case. It’s just that Kvaratskhelia loves playing for his national team. He is here, there, and everywhere, subsequently completing the set by finishing their qualification program with a joint-high three yellow cards alongside Budu Zivzivadze and Guram Kashia. Kvaratskhelia weighed in with eight yellow cards, 42 tackles and 25 fouls in Serie A last season.

Georgia rising star: Georges Mikautadze

An impressive showing at Metz earned Georges Mikautadze a lucrative move to Ajax last summer, but opportunities for the Georgian marksman were lost in the chaos at the Amsterdam club. He’s since returned to France on loan, and in a stop-start league campaign, produced 13 goals and four assists in 20 appearances, though it couldn’t save Metz from relegation. Mikautadze, who turns 24 after Euro 2024 concludes, has already won 25 international caps, netting 10 goals to put him second only to Kvaratskhelia among Georgia’s Euro 2024 squad.

Georgia set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Georges Mikautadze
  • Free kicks: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
  • Corners: Levan Shengelia

Georgia tactical analysis and formation

Georgia team stats from qualifying (average per game):

  • Corners in qualifying: 2.1
  • Corners conceded: 5.4
  • Shots on target: 3.1
  • Shots on target conceded: 5
  • Offsides: 1

Since being appointed Georgia manager in February 2021, the former Bayern Munich defender Willy Sagnol has presided over 34 matches, winning 17 of those contests. Guram Kashia has been the most present under the Frenchman, having appeared in all but three matches. When setting his players up, Sagnol began with a back four before gradually settling into a back three. This system is more conducive to a Georgia side that won’t see much possession and will rely on their speedy players for swift counters.

Even when utilising three in defence, Sagnol has alternated between adopting a two-man attack and deploying a single centre forward supported by two wingers. Their most recent games saw them go with a blend of 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1 but to little success. So, with tough group matches against Portugal, Turkey and the Czech Republic, don’t be surprised to see him go more defensive, leaving the attacking work to Kvaratskhelia, Mikautadze and Watford’s Giorgi Chakvetadze, while Atlanta United’s Saba Lobzhanidze is also a talent.

Georgia final Euro 2024 squad

PLAYER NAME POSITION AGE CLUB
Giorgi Loria Goalkeeper 38 Dinamo Tbilisi
Giorgi Mamardashvili Goalkeeper 23 Valencia
Luka Gugeshashvili Goalkeeper 24 Qarabağ
Otar Kakabadze Defender 28 Cracovia
Lasha Dvali Defender 28 APOEL
Guram Kashia Defender 36 Slovan Bratislava
Solomon Kvirkvelia Defender 32 Al-Okhdood
Giorgi Gocholeishvili Defender 23 Shakhtar Donetsk
Luka Lochoshvili Defender 25 Cremonese
Giorgi Gvelesiani Defender 33 Persepolis
Jemal Tabidze Defender 28 Panetolikos
Saba Lobzhanidze Midfielder 29 Atlanta United
Giorgi Kochorashvili Midfielder 24 Levante
Zuriko Davitashvili Midfielder 23 Bordeaux
Giorgi Chakvetadze Midfielder 24 Watford
Nika Kvekveskiri Midfielder 31 Lech Poznań
Otar Kiteishvili Midfielder 28 Sturm Graz
Sandro Altunashvili Midfielder 26 Wolfsberger AC
Levan Shengelia Midfielder 28 Panetolikos
Jaba Kankava Midfielder 38 Slovan Bratislava
Giorgi Tsitaishvili Midfielder 23 Dinamo Batumi
Anzor Mekvabishvili Midfielder 22 Universitatea Craiova
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Forward 23 Napoli
Budu Zivzivadze Forward 30 Karlsruher SC
Giorgi Kvilitaia Forward 30 APOEL
Georges Mikautadze Forward 23 Metz

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