Outright Odds

France odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics and stats as Les Bleus chase record-equalling success

By James Amey

Published: 10:00, 9 July 2024

France’s quest for a third European Championship continues at Euro 2024, with Les Bleus now in the semi-finals.

After a disappointing Euro 2020 campaign that saw Les Bleus crash out on penalties to Switzerland in the last 16 and World Cup heartbreak at the hands of Argentina in the final in Qatar in 2022, Didier Deschamps will be hoping his French side can pick themselves up and go all the way in Germany.

As usual, they were among the pre-tournament favourites to win Euro 2024, but it hasn’t been too comfortable so far. France opened Euro 2024 with a nervy 1-0 win over Austria but got the job done thanks to a Max Wober own goal, followed by a 0-0 draw against the Netherlands without Kylian Mbappe. But he returned to score his first-ever European Championship goal against Poland from the penalty spot, though it ended in a 1-1 stalemate after Robert Lewandowski equalised with a spot-kick of his own.

Even after the round of 16 and quarter-final, we still await an open-play goal from a French player at this tournament, with Les Bleus only beating Belgium 1-0 via a Jan Vertonghen own goal before a penalty shootout triumph over Portugal after the match ended goalless.

You’d think there’s plenty more to come and you wouldn’t go against them equalling Spain and Germany’s record as the most successful countries in the competition’s history with three European Championship trophies to their name.

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Latest France odds to win Euro 2024
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France to win Euro 2024
Kylian Mbappe to win Golden Boot

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France’s route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage results

  • Austria 0-1 France
  • Netherlands 0-0 France
  • Poland 1-1 France

France’s potential knockout stage opponents

Since France finished second in Group D, they had to face Belgium in the round of 16, winning 1-0. Next up was Portugal in the quarter-finals, who they overcame on penalties.

Spain, will be waiting in the semi-finals. Based on the current standings and odds, England would be their potential opponent in the final in Berlin.

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France’s key players for this year’s European Championship

France top Euros Golden Boot contender: Kylian Mbappe

  • Key stat: Kylian Mbappe was the first player in Europe’s top five leagues to be directly involved in 40+ goals across all competitions in 2023/24 and it only took him 34 games.

After breaking the record for the most goals scored in men’s World Cup finals with a hat-trick against Argentina in Qatar, Kylian Mbappe is no stranger to performing on the biggest stages in international football and will be hoping to add a European Championship Golden Boot to his World Cup one. At that tournament, he had more touches in the opposition box, created more chances and scored more goals than any other player, while only Lionel Messi could match his goal involvements (10), all at the age of 23.

But there is something about the European Championship that just doesn’t work for Mbappe. He has only scored one goal in eight games at the tournament, finally opening his account from the spot in France’s 1-1 draw with Poland at the end of the group stage. This comes despite Mbappe having 34 shots and hitting the target 11 times since the start of Euro 2020. At Euro 2024 so far, his xG is 2.74 — though that drops to 1.95 when you take away the penalty.

And there is every chance that he may struggle for goals as the tournament advances. In France’s 1-0 win over Austria, Mbappe suffered a broken nose, which saw him miss the draw with Netherlands. Mbappe is back playing with a mask, but the Frenchman has admitted it isn’t easy to get used to.

“Each time there was something wrong,” he told reporters on the making of the mask.

“It’s really difficult because it limits your vision and the sweat clogs up. Initially, I felt I was in 3D and I’d been invited to the Euros as a VIP. I could see the people but I felt it wasn’t me playing.

“As soon as I can take it off, I will. Right now I’ve got no choice, I can’t play without it. It’s really annoying. But it’s not going to be an excuse because that’s the only way I can play. I have to say thank you to the masks.”

Indeed, Mbappe has hit the target with just two of his 10 attempted shots during the knockout rounds so far.

What’s more, the now-Real Madrid forward was even subbed off during extra-time against Portugal despite penalties looming, although Deschamps chose to credit his talisman for being honest enough to admit he was struggling with fatigure.

“He is always very honest with me and the team. When he feels he doesn’t have the capacity to accelerate we cannot afford to lose that, even when it’s Kylian,” Deschamps explained. “With everything that’s happened with him, he’s hanging in there. He’s not at his top form and over time, with the efforts he put in, he felt very tired.”

France primary playmaker: N’Golo Kante 

  • Key stat: N’Golo Kante has created 10 chances at Euro 2024 so far, the third-most among the squad.

France have an array of attacking talent but, believe it or not, one of their more creative men is the usually defence-minded N’Golo Kante. The midfielder made something of a shock return to France’s squad for the summer having spent the past season playing in Saudi Arabia. There was uncertainty among some fans about his level, and whether he would start in this team or be more of a squad man.

But Kante has been a starter, and he hasn’t missed a step. Although people do look at Kante as a more defensive midfielder, he is third in the France squad at Euro 2024 for chances created with 10, behind only Ousmane Dembele (12) and Jules Kounde (11) and ahead of the likes of Mbappe and Antoine Griezmann. Kante has also created two big chances, joint-most in the French squad alongside Kounde and Bradley Barcola. But he, or any France player, is yet to record an assist with Mbappe the only Frenchman to score — from a penalty.

France card magnets & top tacklers: Adrien Rabiot 

  • Key stat: Adrien Rabiot has committed five fouls and received two yellow cards at Euro 2024 so far.

As you’d expect, Kante also places high in France for tackles with 11, four fewer than Jules Kounde. Kante is also just one behind Eduardo Camavinga on six fouls. Adrien Rabiot is just one behind him. The Juventus man is Kante’s partner in the double pivot and they have similar roles, both in defence and attack.

Rabiot has made one fewer tackle than Kante, but he has been booked twice, one of six Frenchmen to receive a yellow card at Euro 2024 so far and the only one to see more than one. They came against Poland and Belgium, meaning he was suspended for the quarter-finals, but he’s ready to return against Spain.

France rising star: Warren Zaïre-Emery

At just 18 years old, Warren Zaïre-Emery made the central midfield spot his own for PSG this season and it won’t be long before the same happens for the national team. He is the youngest goalscorer PSG’s history in Ligue 1 at just 16 years and 330 days old and is the teenager with the most goal involvements in the Champions League so far this term, while only Jude Bellingham and Bukayo Saka are the only players with more assists.

It has also been a fast rise into international football having only received his first call-up to the U21 squad in August last year, where he captained the side on his debut, before being called up to the senior squad in November and scoring his first goal in the 14-0 rout of Gibraltar.

However, he is yet to be used at Euro 2024, sitting on the bench for the first five games.

France set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Kylian Mbappé
  • Free kicks: Antoine Griezmann
  • Corners: Antoine Griezmann

France tactical analysis and formation

France team stats from Euro 2024 (average per game):

  • Corners: 6.0
  • Fouls conceded: 9.5
  • Cards: 1.5
  • Shots on target: 4.0
  • Offsides: 0.75

Didier Deschamps seems to have found his ideal formation as France manager, favouring a 4-2-3-1 set-up. However, he has at times experimented in a 4-4-2 shape, but this has mainly been used when Kylian Mbappé has been unavailable.

In the 4-2-3-1, Kante and Rabiot have been the go-to double pivot, starting ahead of Eduardo Camavinga and Aurelien Tchouameni. Both perform similar roles, taking turns to protect the defence and playing the box-to-box role.

Benjamin Pavard and Jules Koundé were expected to battle it out for the right-back spot, with the latter winning the fight so far, making a back three alongside the two centre-backs in possession. This allows Theo Hernandez to do what he does best and fly down the left-hand side allowing Marcus Thuram to be more narrow, fluidly switching positions with Kylian Mbappe. The newly-signed Real Madrid man has been leading the line ahead of Olivier Giroud, who has had to make do with a role as an impact sub as he tries to extend his lead as France’s all-time top scorer. Antoine Griezmann plays just behind floating between the lines.

The Atleti man has excelled in his new role for the national side, showing his incredible close control and an eye for the pass, with most of France’s build-up going through him. Ousmane Dembélé completes the attacking part of France’s line-up, making the right-wing position his own with some impressive performances at the World Cup and has kept his place in the side in Germany.

France Euro 2024 analysis

A lot has been said about France’s poor finishing at Euro 2024, with one penalty, two own goals and a shootout seeing them to the semi-finals. But Les Bleus have been able to get this far, despite their goalscoring problems, due to their defence.

France have kept a tournament-high four clean sheets and conceded a tournament-low one goal so far, with even that one from Lewandowski coming from the penalty spot with a retaken attempt he initially missed.

In their five games so far, France have faced an Expected Goals tally of just 0.66 per match at Euro 2024, the best record at the tournament. And let’s not forget, that will include the boosted xG of Lewandowski’s penalty.

They have had to face an Expected Goals On Target tally of 1.0 per game, with England (0.67) the only remaining team facing less, but Mike Maignan has been on hand to prevent that with 16 saves — only Georgia’s Giorgi Mamardashvili has made more.

France’s final Euro 2024 squad

PLAYER NAME POSITION AGE CLUB
Mike Maignan Goalkeeper 28 AC Milan
Brice Samba Goalkeeper 29 Lens
Alphonse Areola Goalkeeper 31 West Ham
Jules Kounde Defender 25 Barcelona
Benjamin Pavard Defender 27 Inter
Ibrahima Konate Defender 24 Liverpool
William Saliba Defender 22 Arsenal
Dayot Upamecano Defender 25 Bayern
Theo Hernandez Defender 26 Milan
Ferland Mendy Defender 28 Real Madrid
Jonathan Clauss Defender 31 Marseille
Eduardo Camavinga Midfielder 21 Real Madrid
Aurelian Tchoameni Midfielder 24 Real Madrid
Warren Zaire-Emery Midfielder 18 PSG
Adrien Rabiot Midfielder 28 Juventus
Youssouf Fofana Midfielder 25 Monaco
N’Golo Kante Midfielder 33 Al-Ittihad
Antoine Griezmann Midfielder 33 Atletico Madrid
Marcus Thuram Forward 26 Inter
Randal Kolo Muani Forward 25 PSG
Olivier Giroud Forward 37 Milan
Kylian Mbappe Forward 25 PSG
Ousmane Dembele Forward 26 PSG
Bradley Barcola Forward 21 PSG
Kingsley Coman Forward 27 Bayern Munich