Tampa Bay have run for 1,349 yards and Chicago for 1,206. They are the two most productive ground games in the NFL, and our Buccaneers vs Bears prediction puts them on in the early hours of Monday.
The Chicago Bears hold opponents to 23.8% on third down, the best rate in the league by a distance. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers rate 72.6 through the air, the lowest figure in football.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears
Tampa Bay BuccaneersWin prob34%
Chicago BearsWin prob66%Squawka Signal is our model’s read, updated after every result — not betting advice. How the NFL Signal works. 18+. BeGambleAware.org. Please gamble responsibly. Full T&Cs & geo-restrictions apply: BoyleSports, bet365, Sky Bet.
Buccaneers vs Bears: our editor’s props
Two calls from our editor, to read next to Signal’s live numbers.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 18+ | BeGambleAware.org
Buccaneers vs Bears: 2026 form so far
The two busiest ground games in the league, against the best third-down defence in it. The table compares what each team produces with what the other has given up.
Buccaneers attack against the Bears defence
| Per game | Buccaneers offence | Bears allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 131.4 | 219.0 |
| Rushing yards | 168.6 | 86.8 |
| Yards per carry | 5.1 | 4.4 |
| Passer rating | 72.6 | 98.5 |
| Touchdowns | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| Third-down conversion | 38.4% | 23.8% |
| Red-zone conversion | 50.0% | 57.1% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.9 | 2.8 |
Bears attack against the Buccaneers defence
| Per game | Bears offence | Buccaneers allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 236.5 | 205.9 |
| Rushing yards | 150.8 | 80.0 |
| Yards per carry | 4.3 | 3.6 |
| Passer rating | 92.3 | 74.9 |
| Touchdowns | 3.1 | 1.9 |
| Third-down conversion | 44.3% | 32.0% |
| Red-zone conversion | 58.8% | 50.0% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.4 | 2.0 |
Chicago allow a conversion on 23.8% of third downs. No other team is below 29%.
Buccaneers vs Bears quarterback matchup
Caleb Williams has six touchdown passes to one interception at 104.6 from five starts. Tampa Bay rate 72.6 as a team, the lowest in the NFL.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | Baker Mayfield | 0/3, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 39.6 rtg | 68/110, 679 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT, 80.8 rtg (5 games) |
| Bears | Caleb Williams | 22/33, 308 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 116.7 rtg | 112/158, 1267 yds, 6 TD, 1 INT, 104.6 rtg (5 games) |
Buccaneers vs Bears injury report and team news
Tampa Bay have run for 1,349 yards, more than any team in the NFL.
Chicago hold opponents to 23.8% on third down, the best rate in the league.
Tampa Bay rate 72.6 through the air, the lowest team passer rating in football.
Tampa Bay BuccaneersChicago BearsTwo run games and the league’s best third-down defence
One thousand three hundred and forty-nine rushing yards for Tampa Bay at 5.07 a carry, and 1,206 for Chicago. They are first and second in the NFL.
Chicago’s third-down defence is the number that decides it. Opponents convert 23.8%, and no other team in the league is below 29%.
Tampa Bay have no second option: 1,051 passing yards is the lowest total in football and 23 sacks conceded explains much of it.
Players to watch
- Caleb Williams (CHI, QB): 1,267 passing yards and six touchdowns at 104.6.
- D’Andre Swift (CHI, RB): Fronts a ground game with 1,206 yards at 4.29 a carry.
- Bucky Irving (TB, RB): Leads the most productive ground game in the NFL.
- Chris Godwin Jr. (TB, WR): A senior target in an attack rating 72.6 through the air.
How to watch Buccaneers vs Bears
Kickoff is 1.20am GMT in the early hours of Monday 9 November at Soldier Field, which is 8:20 PM ET on the Sunday. Channel 5 and 5ACTION show selected games free-to-air each Sunday, and those are not affected by the blackout. Check their listings for this week’s picks. Sky Sports has the UK coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky takes one exclusive pick from each of the two Sunday afternoon windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Buccaneers vs Bears |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, November 8, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1.20am GMT Mon 9 Nov / 8:20 PM ET |
| Venue | Soldier Field, Chicago, IL |
| TV | Sky Sports |
| Live stream | NFL Game Pass (DAZN) |
| Week | Week 9, 2026 NFL season |
Buccaneers vs Bears prediction and score projection
Our Buccaneers vs Bears prediction is Chicago by 27-20. Tampa Bay can run it, and will, but a side rating 72.6 through the air cannot come from behind against the best third-down defence in football.
The live spread and our projected margin both update through the week.
Every Week 9 game, previewed
| Kickoff (BST) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 2:15 AM | Jaguars @ Ravens | Jaguars 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 3:30 PM | Bengals @ Falcons | Bengals 27-17 | Read |
| Sun 7:00 PM | Browns @ Saints | Saints 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 7:00 PM | Cowboys @ Colts | Cowboys 26-20 | Read |
| Sun 7:00 PM | Broncos @ Panthers | Broncos 26-16 | Read |
| Sun 7:00 PM | Lions @ Dolphins | Lions 30-17 | Read |
| Sun 7:00 PM | Rams @ Commanders | Rams 27-17 | Read |
| Sun 7:00 PM | Giants @ Eagles | Giants 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 7:00 PM | Jets @ Chiefs | Chiefs 30-13 | Read |
| Sun 10:05 PM | Texans @ Chargers | Texans 23-17 | Read |
| Sun 10:25 PM | Cardinals @ Seahawks | Seahawks 30-16 | Read |
| Sun 10:25 PM | Packers @ Patriots | Patriots 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 10:25 PM | Raiders @ 49ers | 49ers 30-17 | Read |
| Mon 2:20 AM | Buccaneers @ Bears | Bears 27-20 | You are here |
| Tue 2:15 AM | Bills @ Vikings | Bills 27-24 | Read |
Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL UK hub, and the 32 club pages sit on the NFL teams hub.
Buccaneers vs Bears FAQ
1.20am GMT in the early hours of Monday 9 November at Soldier Field, which is 8:20 PM ET on the Sunday.
Sky Sports has the coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game of the season, live or on demand. Sky holds one exclusive pick in each of the two Sunday afternoon windows, and those two reach Game Pass 24 hours after the final whistle. Channel 5 and 5ACTION carry the week’s free-to-air games, and those are not blacked out.
Tampa Bay, with 1,349 rushing yards.
Opponents convert 23.8% against them. No other team in the league is below 29%.
18+ | Please gamble responsibly | BeGambleAware.org | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change