Our Patriots vs Bills prediction sends the league’s least productive passing offense to the only 3-0 team in the AFC East. Squawka Signal’s live read on this game, including where the value sits, updates on this page through the week.
The New England Patriots have thrown one touchdown and six interceptions in three games, a 60.8 passer rating. The Buffalo Bills have scored 13 touchdowns and run for 465 yards at 5.2 a carry. Highmark Stadium is a difficult place to arrive in this condition.
Patriots vs Bills: our editor’s props
Two editorial calls to sit alongside the live Signal numbers on this page.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Patriots vs Bills: 2026 form so far
A 3-0 team against a side whose quarterback has thrown five more interceptions than touchdown passes. The table puts each attack against what the opposite defense allows.
Patriots attack against the Bills defense
| Per game | Patriots offense | Bills allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 197.7 | 254.3 |
| Rushing yards | 109.3 | 107.0 |
| Yards per carry | 3.9 | 4.0 |
| Passer rating | 60.8 | 105.4 |
| Touchdowns | 1.0 | 3.0 |
| Third-down conversion | 32.5% | 40.5% |
| Red-zone conversion | 16.7% | 61.5% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 3.0 | 3.0 |
Bills attack against the Patriots defense
| Per game | Bills offense | Patriots allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 246.7 | 170.0 |
| Rushing yards | 155.0 | 108.3 |
| Yards per carry | 5.2 | 4.3 |
| Passer rating | 104.1 | 85.8 |
| Touchdowns | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| Third-down conversion | 54.5% | 34.3% |
| Red-zone conversion | 75.0% | 62.5% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.7 | 2.3 |
Read these as a 3-game sample rather than settled form. Rates this early move a long way on one result.
New England’s 16.7% red-zone conversion is the worst figure on either side of this card. Buffalo convert 75%, which is the gap in a single comparison.
Patriots vs Bills quarterback matchup
Both quarterbacks had a poor Week 3. Only one of them plays for a 3-0 team, and only one of them has thrown six interceptions.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | Drake Maye | 14/25, 199 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, 48.6 rtg | 51/80, 585 yds, 1 TD, 6 INT, 58.6 rtg (3 games) |
| Tommy DeVito | 3/5, 30 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 77.1 rtg | 3/5, 30 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 77.1 rtg (1 game) | |
| Bills | Josh Allen | 16/26, 204 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, 54.0 rtg | 56/86, 786 yds, 5 TD, 2 INT, 104.1 rtg (3 games) |
Patriots vs Bills injury report and team news
Drake Maye threw two interceptions at Jacksonville and was replaced for five snaps by Tommy DeVito, the first time New England have split the throws this season.
A.J. Brown is on injured reserve for New England, so the Patriots are without the receiver who made 1,003 yards for Philadelphia last season.
Harold Landry III remains on the physically unable to perform list for New England after recording eight sacks last season.
Where Patriots vs Bills is decided
Drake Maye has thrown one touchdown and six interceptions in three games at a 58.6 rating. Last season he threw 31 touchdowns to eight interceptions at 113.5. That is not a slow start so much as a collapse, and New England have no obvious way around it.
Buffalo are not flawless. Josh Allen threw two interceptions against the Chargers and managed a 54.0 rating, and the Bills turned the ball over five times in that game and still won by eight. They also ran for 176 yards.
Consequently the route to a New England cover is Buffalo’s carelessness rather than any Patriots strength. Allen has six rushing touchdowns already, so even a poor passing day tends to end with points.
Players to watch
- Drake Maye (NE, QB): 199 yards and two interceptions at Jacksonville, a 48.6 rating.
- Mack Hollins (NE, WR): Six catches for 87 yards in Week 3, New England’s leading receiver.
- Josh Allen (BUF, QB): Two rushing touchdowns against the Chargers despite a 54.0 passer rating.
- James Cook III (BUF, RB): 154 rushing yards at 6.4 a carry in Week 3.
How to watch Patriots vs Bills
Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 4 at Highmark Stadium, which is 12:00 PM CT and 10:00 AM PT. CBS has the regional broadcast.
| Detail | Patriots vs Bills |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 4, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM CT / 10:00 AM PT |
| Venue | Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY |
| TV | CBS |
| Live stream | NFL+ / Paramount+ |
| Week | Week 4, 2026 NFL season |
Patriots vs Bills prediction and score projection
Our Patriots vs Bills prediction is a Buffalo win, 30-16. The Bills have been sloppy and are still 3-0, and New England have scored three touchdowns in three weeks.
The live win probability and the model’s projected margin update on this page through the week.
Every Week 4 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Steelers @ Browns | Browns 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:30 AM | Colts @ Commanders | Commanders 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Cardinals @ Giants | Cardinals 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Cowboys @ Texans | Cowboys 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Packers @ Buccaneers | Packers 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Jaguars @ Bengals | Jaguars 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Rams @ Eagles | Rams 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Patriots @ Bills | Bills 30-16 | You are here |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Jets @ Bears | Bears 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Titans @ Ravens | Ravens 27-13 | Read |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Dolphins @ Vikings | Vikings 24-13 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Broncos @ 49ers | 49ers 31-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Chiefs @ Raiders | Chiefs 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Chargers @ Seahawks | Seahawks 27-17 | Read |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Lions @ Panthers | Lions 31-24 | Read |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Falcons @ Saints | Saints 26-23 | Read |
Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL hub, and Signal rates every game on the NFL picks page.
Patriots vs Bills FAQ
Buffalo, comfortably, at home. The Bills are 3-0 with 13 touchdowns; New England are 1-2 with three.
1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 4, at Highmark Stadium.
No. Brown is on injured reserve. He made 1,003 receiving yards for Philadelphia last season before joining the Patriots.
He started Week 3 and took 25 of the 30 New England throws, with Tommy DeVito taking five in relief.
21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Signal probabilities and odds approximate at time of writing and subject to change