Our Colts vs Commanders prediction covers the first London game of 2026, and it pairs two defenses that have stopped almost nothing. Squawka Signal’s live read on this game, including where the value sits, updates on this page through the week.
The Indianapolis Colts have allowed 10 touchdowns and a 110.4 opponent passer rating in three games. The Washington Commanders have allowed 11 and a 124.4 rating, the highest figure in the league. Both are 1-2, and Tottenham Hotspur Stadium should be busy.
Colts vs Commanders: our editor’s props
Two editorial calls to sit alongside the live Signal numbers on this page.
AT 
Our props
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Colts vs Commanders: 2026 form so far
Neither of these defenses has held anyone. The table puts each attack against what the opposite side has actually been giving up.
Colts attack against the Commanders defense
| Per game | Colts offense | Commanders allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 190.0 | 280.3 |
| Rushing yards | 103.3 | 82.0 |
| Yards per carry | 3.7 | 3.8 |
| Passer rating | 80.8 | 124.4 |
| Touchdowns | 2.3 | 3.7 |
| Third-down conversion | 40.5% | 47.1% |
| Red-zone conversion | 66.7% | 75.0% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.0 | 1.7 |
Commanders attack against the Colts defense
| Per game | Commanders offense | Colts allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 182.0 | 276.0 |
| Rushing yards | 132.0 | 141.3 |
| Yards per carry | 4.1 | 4.9 |
| Passer rating | 98.5 | 110.4 |
| Touchdowns | 3.0 | 3.3 |
| Third-down conversion | 38.1% | 36.4% |
| Red-zone conversion | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.0 | 2.3 |
Read these as a 3-game sample rather than settled form. Rates this early move a long way on one result.
Washington’s 124.4 opponent passer rating is the number that shapes this game. Indianapolis are not far behind at 110.4, which is why the total matters more than the spread.
Colts vs Commanders quarterback matchup
Marcus Mariota has seven touchdown passes from 47 attempts. Daniel Jones has three from 98.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | Daniel Jones | 24/36, 235 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 82.5 rtg | 65/98, 611 yds, 3 TD, 3 INT, 80.8 rtg (3 games) |
| Commanders | Marcus Mariota | 19/31, 183 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 110.0 rtg | 30/47, 294 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT, 109.7 rtg (2 games) |
Colts vs Commanders injury report and team news
Alec Pierce is on injured reserve for Indianapolis, so the Colts are without the receiver who made 1,003 yards last season.
Marcus Mariota started Washington’s Week 3 win over Seattle and threw three touchdowns without an interception, his second start of the season.
This section updates as soon as the Out, Doubtful and Questionable tags land.
Where Colts vs Commanders is decided
Washington have allowed a 124.4 passer rating across three games, and they still beat Seattle 33-31. That is the shape of their season: enough points to survive whatever the defense concedes, and a 66.7% red-zone conversion rate to back it up.
Indianapolis arrive off a 19-17 win at home to Houston in which Daniel Jones threw for 235 at an 82.5 rating. They have run 83 times for 310 yards, but only 3.7 a carry, so the ground game is volume rather than efficiency.
Neutral ground removes Washington’s crowd, which matters when a defense is this porous. Even so, the Commanders have scored nine touchdowns to Indianapolis’s seven, and that margin is the case for backing them.
Players to watch
- Daniel Jones (IND, QB): 235 yards and a touchdown against Houston at an 82.5 rating.
- Tyler Warren (IND, TE): Nine catches from 10 targets for 55 yards in Week 3.
- Marcus Mariota (WAS, QB): Three touchdown passes against Seattle at a 110.0 rating.
- Terry McLaurin (WAS, WR): Six catches for 77 yards and a score in Week 3.
How to watch Colts vs Commanders
Kickoff is 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, October 4 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, which is 8:30 AM CT and 6:30 AM PT. NFL Network has the national broadcast.
| Detail | Colts vs Commanders |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 4, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 9:30 AM ET / 8:30 AM CT / 6:30 AM PT |
| Venue | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London |
| TV | NFL Network |
| Live stream | NFL+ / NFL Network |
| Week | Week 4, 2026 NFL season |
Colts vs Commanders prediction and score projection
Our Colts vs Commanders prediction is a Washington win, 27-24. The Commanders have scored more and convert more of what they reach, and neither defense looks likely to settle this.
The live win probability and the model’s projected margin update on this page through the week.
Every Week 4 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Steelers @ Browns | Browns 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:30 AM | Colts @ Commanders | Commanders 27-24 | You are here |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Cardinals @ Giants | Cardinals 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Cowboys @ Texans | Cowboys 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Packers @ Buccaneers | Packers 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Jaguars @ Bengals | Jaguars 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Rams @ Eagles | Rams 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Patriots @ Bills | Bills 30-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Jets @ Bears | Bears 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Titans @ Ravens | Ravens 27-13 | Read |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Dolphins @ Vikings | Vikings 24-13 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Broncos @ 49ers | 49ers 31-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Chiefs @ Raiders | Chiefs 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Chargers @ Seahawks | Seahawks 27-17 | Read |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Lions @ Panthers | Lions 31-24 | Read |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Falcons @ Saints | Saints 26-23 | Read |
Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL hub, and Signal rates every game on the NFL picks page.
Colts vs Commanders FAQ
Washington, narrowly, on neutral ground in London. Both teams are 1-2, but the Commanders have scored nine touchdowns to Indianapolis’s seven.
9:30 AM ET on Sunday, October 4, which is 2:30pm in London, at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
No. Pierce is on injured reserve. He made 1,003 receiving yards for Indianapolis last season.
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, not Washington’s Northwest Stadium. It is the first of the 2026 London games.
21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Signal probabilities and odds approximate at time of writing and subject to change