Our Jets vs Bears prediction puts one of five offenses yet to throw an interception against the heaviest run game in the league. Squawka Signal’s live read on this game, including where the value sits, updates on this page through the week.
The New York Jets have thrown four touchdown passes and no interceptions in three games at a 110.0 rating. The Chicago Bears have run for 553 yards at 5.3 a carry and beat Philadelphia 27-7. Soldier Field pairs two teams who win in opposite ways.
Jets vs Bears: our editor’s props
Two editorial calls to sit alongside the live Signal numbers on this page.
AT 
Our props
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Jets vs Bears: 2026 form so far
One team throws it accurately and cannot run; the other runs it hard and has just changed quarterback. The table sets each attack against what the opposite defense allows.
Jets attack against the Bears defense
| Per game | Jets offense | Bears allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 236.7 | 207.0 |
| Rushing yards | 92.3 | 117.0 |
| Yards per carry | 3.3 | 5.1 |
| Passer rating | 110.0 | 81.3 |
| Touchdowns | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| Third-down conversion | 37.2% | 29.0% |
| Red-zone conversion | 66.7% | 71.4% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 3.0 | 2.3 |
Bears attack against the Jets defense
| Per game | Bears offense | Jets allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 223.7 | 171.0 |
| Rushing yards | 184.3 | 87.3 |
| Yards per carry | 5.3 | 4.2 |
| Passer rating | 96.8 | 98.6 |
| Touchdowns | 3.7 | 2.3 |
| Third-down conversion | 47.6% | 32.3% |
| Red-zone conversion | 50.0% | 70.0% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.0 | 2.7 |
Read these as a 3-game sample rather than settled form. Rates this early move a long way on one result.
The Jets average 3.3 a carry and the Bears 5.3. If Chicago control the clock with that, Geno Smith’s accuracy matters less than the raw number of possessions he gets.
Jets vs Bears quarterback matchup
Geno Smith has not thrown an interception in 102 attempts. Case Keenum has started once, and started well.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | Geno Smith | 31/37, 321 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 129.8 rtg | 77/102, 783 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT, 110.0 rtg (3 games) |
| Bears | Case Keenum | 24/34, 247 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 110.8 rtg | 24/34, 247 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 110.8 rtg (1 game) |
Jets vs Bears injury report and team news
Case Keenum started Chicago’s Week 3 win over Philadelphia and threw for 247 yards and two touchdowns at a 110.8 rating, his first appearance of the season.
Geno Smith completed 31 of 37 at Detroit for 321 yards and three touchdowns, and has still not thrown an interception in 2026.
This section updates as soon as the Out, Doubtful and Questionable tags land.
Where Jets vs Bears is decided
Geno Smith has attempted 102 passes without an interception, one of only three quarterbacks past 100 attempts who has yet to throw one. It is the reason a 1-2 team carries a positive point differential.
Chicago answer with volume on the ground. Five hundred and fifty-three rushing yards at 5.3 a carry, seven rushing touchdowns, and a 47.6% third-down rate that keeps drives alive. D’Andre Swift ran 20 times for 84 against Philadelphia.
The complication is Chicago’s quarterback. Case Keenum made his first start of the season in Week 3 and was excellent, but one game at 110.8 is a small sample on which to price a home favorite.
Players to watch
- Geno Smith (NYJ, QB): 31 of 37 for 321 yards and three touchdowns at Detroit.
- Garrett Wilson (NYJ, WR): 10 catches for 107 yards and a score in Week 3.
- Case Keenum (CHI, QB): 247 yards and two touchdowns against Philadelphia at a 110.8 rating.
- D’Andre Swift (CHI, RB): 20 carries for 84 yards in Week 3, part of a 553-yard team total.
How to watch Jets vs Bears
Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 4 at Soldier Field, which is 12:00 PM CT and 10:00 AM PT. FOX has the regional broadcast.
| Detail | Jets vs Bears |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 4, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM CT / 10:00 AM PT |
| Venue | Soldier Field, Chicago, IL |
| TV | FOX |
| Live stream | NFL+ / Fubo |
| Week | Week 4, 2026 NFL season |
Jets vs Bears prediction and score projection
Our Jets vs Bears prediction is a Chicago win, 27-24. The Bears run the ball well enough to shorten the game, and New York have not been able to do the same.
The live win probability and the model’s projected margin update on this page through the week.
Every Week 4 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Steelers @ Browns | Browns 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:30 AM | Colts @ Commanders | Commanders 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Cardinals @ Giants | Cardinals 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Cowboys @ Texans | Cowboys 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Packers @ Buccaneers | Packers 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Jaguars @ Bengals | Jaguars 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Rams @ Eagles | Rams 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Patriots @ Bills | Bills 30-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Jets @ Bears | Bears 27-24 | You are here |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Titans @ Ravens | Ravens 27-13 | Read |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Dolphins @ Vikings | Vikings 24-13 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Broncos @ 49ers | 49ers 31-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Chiefs @ Raiders | Chiefs 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Chargers @ Seahawks | Seahawks 27-17 | Read |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Lions @ Panthers | Lions 31-24 | Read |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Falcons @ Saints | Saints 26-23 | Read |
Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL hub, and Signal rates every game on the NFL picks page.
Jets vs Bears FAQ
Chicago, at home. The Bears are 2-1 with a plus-36 point differential; the Jets are 1-2.
1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 4, at Soldier Field.
Case Keenum started Week 3 and threw for 247 yards and two touchdowns. It was his only appearance of the season so far.
New York lost 31-24 at Detroit. Chicago beat Philadelphia 27-7.
21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Signal probabilities and odds approximate at time of writing and subject to change