Buffalo Bills Odds & Predictions
Squawka Signal’s projected line and win probability for every Bills game this season, plus AFC East standings and Super Bowl odds.
Bills 2026 outlook
| Market | Squawka | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills Super Bowl oddsFull odds | 20.2% | 10.3% | 12.3% | +8.0 | Value |
| Bills AFC Championship oddsFull odds | 33.1% | 19.7% | 21.6% | +11.5 | Strong value |
| Bills AFC East odds | 74.6% | Signal read | |||
vs Moneyline
Against the spread
Signal read
ValueSquawka Signal is a 538-lineage Elo model with a 10,000-run Monte Carlo season simulation. Market prices are de-vigged to fair probability. Model numbers are a view, not a guarantee. 21+. Play responsibly.
AFC East standings and division odds
Division and playoff odds are the model’s, from a 10,000-run season simulation.
| Team | Record | Win AFC East | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 5-1 | 74.6% | 98.2% |
 New England Patriots | 4-2 | 25.4% | 85.5% |
 New York Jets | 2-4 | 0.0% | 0.5% |
 Miami Dolphins | 0-5 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Buffalo Bills schedule, results and lines
Every game with the model’s win probability and projected line, against the market spread where it’s priced.
Bills injury report
Out long-term
| Player | Pos | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Dorian Strong | CB | IR |
| Jordan Hancock | DB | IR |
| Zane Durant | DL | IR |
| Tyrell Shavers | WR | PUP |
| Sam Franklin Jr. | DB | Susp |
| C.J. Gardner-Johnson | SAF | Susp |
Latest Bills coverage
Raiders vs Bills: Kalshi Promo Code & $25 BonusMatch preview · 5 days agoBills vs Raiders Prediction, Picks & OddsMatch preview · 5 days agoRams vs Bills: Kalshi Promo Code & $25 BonusMatch preview · 10 days agoBills vs Rams Prediction, Picks & OddsMatch preview · 11 days agoBills vs Patriots: Kalshi Promo Code & $25 BonusMatch preview · 19 days agoPatriots vs Bills Prediction, Picks & OddsMatch preview · 19 days agoBuffalo Bills roster
74 players · tap to open
Offense 33
| # | Player | Pos | Exp | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Josh Allen | QB | 9 | Wyoming |
| 11 | Kyle Allen | QB | 8 | Houston |
| 6 | Shane Buechele | QB | 4 | SMU |
| 7 | Ray Davis | RB | 3 | Kentucky |
| 4 | James Cook III | RB | 5 | Georgia |
| 26 | Ty Johnson | RB | 8 | Maryland |
| 20 | Frank Gore Jr. | RB | 1 | Southern Miss |
| 45 | Brock Lampe | RB | 1 | Northern Illinois |
| 13 | Skyler Bell | WR | UConn | |
| 0 | Keon Coleman | WR | 3 | Florida State |
| 19 | Greg Dortch | WR | 6 | Wake Forest |
| 89 | Stephen Gosnell | WR | 1 | Virginia Tech |
| 84 | Ja'Mori Maclin | WR | Kentucky | |
| 2 | DJ Moore | WR | 9 | Maryland |
| 5 | Joshua Palmer | WR | 6 | Tennessee |
| 10 | Khalil Shakir | WR | 5 | Boise State |
| 14 | Tyrell Shavers | WR | 2 | San Diego State |
| 18 | Trent Sherfield Sr. | WR | 9 | Vanderbilt |
| 85 | Jackson Hawes | TE | 2 | Georgia Tech |
| 86 | Dalton Kincaid | TE | 4 | Utah |
| 88 | Dawson Knox | TE | 8 | Ole Miss |
| 83 | Keleki Latu | TE | 1 | Washington |
| 53 | Lloyd Cushenberry | C | 7 | LSU |
| 60 | Ar'maj Reed-Adams | G | Texas A&M | |
| 64 | O'Cyrus Torrence | G | 4 | Florida |
| 79 | Spencer Brown | T | 6 | Northern Iowa |
| 73 | Dion Dawkins | T | 10 | Temple |
| 77 | Chase Lundt | T | 2 | UConn |
| 70 | Alec Anderson | OL | 4 | UCLA |
| 74 | Jude Bowry | OL | Boston College | |
| 63 | Austin Corbett | OL | 9 | Nevada |
| 68 | Tylan Grable | OL | 3 | UCF |
| 66 | Connor McGovern | OL | 8 | Penn State |
Defense 38
| # | Player | Pos | Exp | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | Austin Johnson | DT | 10 | Penn State |
| 90 | DeWayne Carter | DL | 3 | Duke |
| 67 | Travis Clayton | DL | 2 | |
| 92 | Zane Durant | DL | Penn State | |
| 97 | Greg Gaines | DL | 7 | Washington |
| 94 | Landon Jackson | DL | 2 | Arkansas |
| 72 | Phidarian Mathis | DL | 5 | Alabama |
| 91 | Ed Oliver | DL | 8 | Houston |
| 98 | T.J. Sanders | DL | 2 | South Carolina |
| 96 | Deone Walker | DL | 2 | Kentucky |
| 44 | Joe Andreessen | LB | 3 | Buffalo |
| 8 | Terrel Bernard | LB | 5 | Baylor |
| 52 | Kaleb Elarms-Orr | LB | TCU | |
| 49 | Keonta Jenkins | LB | 1 | Virginia Tech |
| 54 | Shaq Thompson | LB | 11 | Washington |
| 42 | Dorian Williams | LB | 4 | Tulane |
| 9 | Bradley Chubb | OLB | 9 | NC State |
| Mike Danna | OLB | 6 | Michigan | |
| 55 | Michael Hoecht | OLB | 6 | Brown |
| 99 | TJ Parker | OLB | Clemson | |
| 15 | Greg Rousseau | OLB | 6 | Miami (FL) |
| 56 | Javon Solomon | OLB | 3 | Troy |
| 23 | Dee Alford | CB | 5 | Tusculum |
| 47 | Christian Benford | CB | 5 | Villanova |
| 1 | Maxwell Hairston | CB | 2 | Kentucky |
| 21 | Davison Igbinosun | CB | Ohio State | |
| Anthony Kendall | CB | 3 | Baldwin Wallace | |
| 43 | Dorian Strong | CB | 2 | Virginia Tech |
| 41 | Kani Walker | CB | Arkansas | |
| 27 | Tre'Davious White | CB | 9 | LSU |
| 24 | Cole Bishop | SAF | 2 | Utah |
| 22 | C.J. Gardner-Johnson | SAF | 8 | Florida |
| 3 | Damar Hamlin | SAF | 6 | Pittsburgh |
| 29 | Jalon Kilgore | SAF | South Carolina | |
| 25 | Geno Stone | SAF | 7 | Iowa |
| 33 | Te'Cory Couch | DB | 1 | Miami (FL) |
| 37 | Jordan Hancock | DB | 2 | Ohio State |
| 28 | Sam Franklin Jr. | DB | 7 | Temple |
Special teams 3
| # | Player | Pos | Exp | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Tyler Bass | K | 7 | Georgia Southern |
| 39 | Tommy Doman Jr. | P | Florida | |
| 69 | Reid Ferguson | LS | 10 | LSU |
Buffalo Bills FAQ
What are the Bills’ Super Bowl odds?
Squawka Signal gives the Bills a 20.2% chance of winning Super Bowl LXI. The market prices them at 12.3%, so the model reads them as value. See the full Super Bowl odds.
Can the Bills win the AFC East?
The model makes them 74.6% to win the AFC East. That makes them the favourite, ahead of the New England Patriots at 25.4%.
Will the Bills make the playoffs?
Signal has them at 98.2% to reach the postseason, and 37.9% to take the No.1 seed in the AFC.
Who do the Bills play next?
Week 8, at home to Baltimore Ravens on Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET. Signal makes the Bills 71% with a projected line of BUF -5.8.
Who is the Bills’ starting quarterback?
Josh Allen. That is the projected starter our model rates the Bills on, taken from last season’s attempts plus any offseason moves — not an official depth chart.
What record are the Bills projected to finish with?
Adding up the model’s win probability for all 17 games gives an expected 12-5 (12.2 wins).
When is the Bills’ bye week?
Week 7 of the 2026 season.
What is the Bills’ power ranking?
Signal ranks them #1 of 32. The rating behind it is built from results and margin of victory, adjusted for opponent quality and for who is playing quarterback.
Where do the Bills play?
Buffalo Bills play their home games at Highmark Stadium.