The Premier League returns after last week’s FA Cup action with five games on Saturday, four on Sunday and one on Monday. The highlight sees North London rivals Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal face off in N17, while Monday Night Football sees Manchester United make their first ever trip to Everton’s Hill Dickinson Stadium.
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Aston Villa vs Leeds – Saturday 21 February – 3:00pm
Leeds have picked up some fine results of late, beating Fulham and Nottingham Forest at home while earning hard-fought away draws at Chelsea and Everton. However, they now come up against third-placed Aston Villa who got their Champions League chase back on the right track with a 1-0 home win over Brighton in their last Premier League outing.
Villa have had the better of this fixture recently, going unbeaten in the last six meetings between the two sides and goals are usually on the menu when these two meet, with 2.54 per match across the last thirteen match-ups. With the likes of Morgan Rogers and Ollie Watkins lining up for Villa, we expect a home win and goals at both ends here.
Prediction: Aston Villa 3-1 Leeds (21/2 with BetMGM)
Brentford vs Brighton – Saturday 21 February – 3:00pm
Brentford average 1.54 goals per game and have won seven of their 13 home fixtures so far this term. Keith Andrews has performed above and beyond expectations to silence the doubters that felt his side would struggle this season. As things stand they sit in seventh position in the Premier League table, having taken seven points from their last three fixtures against Aston Villa, Newcastle United and first-placed Arsenal.
Brighton meanwhile have won just two games on the road and are conceding 1.31 per game. Having now gone six Premier League games without a win, pressure is starting to mount on under-fire boss Fabian Hurzeler and this has the feel of another difficult fixture for his Seagulls side. We’re backing the Bees to continue their terrific home record.
Prediction: Brentford 2-0 Brighton (17/2 with BetMGM)
Chelsea vs Burnley – Saturday 21 February – 3:00pm
Burnley score have scored at a rate of just 1.08 per game this season, while their Saturday afternoon opponents. The Clarets have failed to score in eight of their 26 outings and even their promotion from the Championship last season was built more on their defensive strength than any free-flowing attacking ability.
Chelsea meanwhile have kept clean sheets in 34.6% of their Premier League matches. The Blues kept their second clean sheet in all competitions under new boss Liam Rosenior last weekend as they hammered Championship outfit Hull City 0-4 in the FA Cup. We can see the hosts securing a comfortable win here and you can expect the in-form Cole Palmer to be heavily involved again.
Prediction: Chelsea 2-0 Burnley (11/2 with BetMGM)
West Ham vs Bournemouth – Saturday 21 February – 5:30pm
West Ham United’s fight for Premier League survival has been given a real shot in the arm of late. The Hammers have lost just one of their last seven games and as a result have hauled themselves to within three points of 17th placed Nottingham Forest. Bournemouth have found some form of their own of late, but we’re anticipating the home advantage to help Nuno Espirito Santo’s men to earn a pivotal three points.
The market expects goals, but both sides are underperforming their xG (Bournemouth +5.38, West Ham +3.92). Five of the last six head-to-heads have gone under. The odds may suggest goals, but the team’s respective records suggest otherwise so we are backing a low-scoring and narrow home win at the London Stadium.
Prediction: West Ham 1-0 Bournemouth (19/2 with BetMGM)
Man City vs Newcastle – Saturday 21 February – 8:00pm
Just weeks after their EFL Cup semi-final defeat, Newcastle won’t be happy to see Manchester City again. The Magpies have played 20 Premier League games at the Etihad Stadium without winning – a record for games played at a venue without winning in the history of the competition. What’s more – Pep Guardiola’s men have found their form with four consecutive wins and no defeats in seven in all competitions.
City keep clean sheets in 42% of games and Newcastle have blanked in a third of their away matches. The Magpies’ xG is fine but they’re wasteful (44 big chances missed). We’re backing the hosts to keep a clean sheet as they look to pile the pressure on
Prediction: Man City 3-0 Newcastle (9/1 with BetMGM)
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Crystal Palace vs Wolves – Sunday 22 February – 2:00pm
Wolves have been much harder to beat in recent weeks, losing just three of their last 10 and will take confidence from their midweek draw with table-topping Arsenal. Given that Palace have won just one of their last 11 league games, there appears to be value in backing the visitors to get at least a point here.
Two of Palace’s last four games in all competitions have ended 1-1, including Thursday night’s Europa League play-off first-leg against Bosnian outfit Zrinjski Mostar. That trip may have taken something out of the legs of this injury-hit Palace squad and we can see them struggling again here after they were beaten by 19th placed Burnley in their last home Premier League match.
Prediction: Crystal Palace 1-1 Wolves (6/1 with BetMGM)
Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool – Sunday 22 February – 2:00pm
Vitor Pereira will become the fourth permanent manager to take charge of a Nottingham Forest in the Premier League on Sunday when he leads his team in this game against Liverpool. The Tricky Trees haven’t won any of their last five Premier League games at the City Ground and indeed they’ve only scored two goals across those five games, so they could be in for a tough afternoon against Liverpool on Sunday.
While Arne Slot’s men have underperformed in their Premier League title defence this year, they do make the trip to Nottingham on the back of four wins in their last five games in all competitions and back-to-back clean sheets in wins over Sunderland and Brighton.
Prediction: Nottingham Forest 0-1 Liverpool (7/1 with BetMGM)
Sunderland vs Fulham – Sunday 22 February – 2:00pm
Sunderland have the better defensive record of these two teams having conceded at a rate of 1.15 goals per game, having kept more clean sheets (8 vs 5) to boot. Fulham have enjoyed a solid if unspectacular season and are yet to win away from home in the new year – while they make this trip to the north east on the back of four defeats in their last six games in all competitions.
Regis le Bris’ men may only sit one place and two points above the Cottagers in the table, but it’s their home form that has kept them well clear of the relegation zone so far this term. The Black Cats have lost just one game at home this season – to Liverpool in their last league outing. They’ll hope to bounce back here and grind out another low-scoring home victory and a ninth clean sheet.
Prediction: Sunderland 1-0 Fulham (13/2 with BetMGM)
Tottenham vs Arsenal – Sunday 22 February – 4:30pm
Tottenham Hotspur’s domestic season has been nothing short of a disaster. The Lilywhites finally decided to relieve Thomas Frank of his duties following their defeat to Newcastle United last week as the club sit slumped in 16th place in the table after 26 games having been knocked out of both domestic cup competitions. They are currently sitting only five points clear of the relegation zone with 12 games of the season remaining.
Although Arsenal’s form has suffered in recent weeks, they remain top of the table having gone seven games unbeaten in all competitions. They also have a fine record in recent North London derbies having gone seven games unbeaten against their arch rivals, winning six of those seven. They should be able to gain three points here to get their title charge back on track.
Prediction: Tottenham 1-2 Arsenal (13/2 with BetMGM)
Everton vs Man Utd – Monday 23 February – 8:00pm
Both teams have scored in each of Everton’s last four games and we can see another exciting game with goals at both ends on Monday night as Manchester United visit the Hill Dickinson for the first time. Since Michael Carrick took over the Red Devils they have scored 11 times in just five appearances – and they’ve conceded five times too despite not yet losing.
Only Bournemouth and Brighton have drawn more games than Manchester United so far this season with nine, while Everton have also played out seven Premier League draws. The Toffees are not the highest-scoring team by any stretch – but they have scored at least once in each of their last nine games in all competitions. This could be a really entertaining clash.
Prediction: Everton 2-2 Man Utd (10/1 with BetMGM)
