Aston Villa are chasing Champions League football, while Leeds are looking to steer clear of the relegation battle ensuing below them. With 12 places and 20 points separating the two teams in the Premier League table, the Villans will be expecting to take three vital points in this Saturday 3pm kick-off at Villa Park.
Best Bets & Predictions
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why I’m Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Rogers Anytime Scorer | 2/1 @ BetVictor (33.3%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Rogers has 8 goals in 26 games this season and he’s been Villa’s standout performer in an attacking sense. Leeds have shipped 45 in 26 (1.73/game) and Rogers is Villa’s main goal threat. 2/1 (33%) is value when I rate him nearer 40% based on the underlying shot volume and Leeds’ defensive woes. |
| Jayden Bogle To Be Carded | 2/1 @ Bet365 (33.3%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Bogle’s picked up his share of cards for Leeds — and Villa’s left side will test him on Saturday. Leeds average 1.58 cards per game and Bogle has been shown four so far, including one in the reverse fixture at Elland Road earlier in the season. 2/1 is a fair poke for a player who’s always in the thick of it. |
Odds correct at the time of writing.
How both teams go into Aston Villa vs Leeds
Villa are third with 50 points from 26 games so far and although they are no longer being discussed as potential title challengers, they go into the weekend just seven points away from leaders Arsenal but with an eight point gap over sixth-placed Liverpool, giving hope that Champions League qualification could be on the cards again this season.
Defeat to Newcastle in the FA Cup last weekend will have been tough to take for supporters, although perhaps boss Unai Emery will be glad of the rest for his players as they look to compete on the Europa League front as well in the remainder of this campaign. This could be a low-scoring game looking at Villa’s recent matches – a total of just seven goals have been scored in the Midlands club’s last six league outings.
Leeds are down in fifteenth, 30 points from 26 (1.15 per game). The gap from Villa is a pretty big one: 20 points and twelve places. However, the Whites have been much improved as the season has gone on and with just one defeat from their last seven games in all competitions, they can bring some momentum into this trip on Saturday afternoon.
Having emerged victorious from a trip to Birmingham last weekend where they overcame Villa’s cross-town rivals Birmingham City on penalties in the FA Cup, Daniel Farke and his men’s attentions now turn to the Premier League survival fight. Six points may be separating them from 18th placed West Ham at this stage, but with the Hammers finding some better form, the Whites can’t afford to let their own improvements tail off at this stage.
Aston Villa team news
Boubacar Kamara, Youri Tielemans and John McGinn are all injured. Marco Bizot will be suspended after his red card last weekend, while Matty Cash and Andres Garcia will be assessed nearer to kick-off.
Leeds team news
There are no guaranteed absentees for Leeds this weekend but Noah Okafor, Pascal Strujik, Daniel James and Anton Stach will be assessed before the game.
Season form and standings
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 3rd | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 37 | 27 | +10 | 50 |
| Leeds United | 15th | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 30 |
Head-to-Head
Recent Meetings
Villa have had the better of this fixture recently, going unbeaten in the last six meetings between the two sides. Goals are usually on the menu, with 2.54 per match across the last thirteen.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 23/11/25 | Leeds United 1-2 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 13/01/23 | Aston Villa 2-1 Leeds United | Premier League |
| 02/10/22 | Leeds United 0-0 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 10/03/22 | Leeds United 0-3 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 09/02/22 | Aston Villa 3-3 Leeds United | Premier League |
| 27/02/21 | Leeds United 0-1 Aston Villa | Premier League |
Conclusion
Leeds’ defence is improving, but it’s still a mess with 45 goals conceded and xA showing it should be even less – but the reality is they can’t keep teams out. Villa aren’t always free-scoring but they don’t need to be against a side this open. I’m not lumping on the Villa win at short odds, but Morgan Rogers anytime scorer at 2/1 with BetVictor is the play for me, and I’m having a nibble on Jayden Bogle to be carded at 2/1 with Bet365 if you like a player prop. Leeds might get one, but I don’t see them leaving with anything.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.