Our Falcons vs Saints prediction closes Week 4 with a division game between two 1-2 teams, one of which has just won by three touchdowns. Squawka Signal’s live read on this game, including where the value sits, updates on this page through the week.
The Atlanta Falcons ran for 242 yards at Green Bay and won 35-14 with Michael Penix Jr. back at quarterback. The New Orleans Saints have scored 10 touchdowns but conceded 10 sacks. The Caesars Superdome hosts the final game of the round.
Falcons vs Saints: our editor’s props
Two editorial calls to sit alongside the live Signal numbers on this page.
AT 
Our props
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Falcons vs Saints: 2026 form so far
A division game between two 1-2 teams heading in opposite directions. The table puts each attack against what the opposite defense has actually allowed.
Falcons attack against the Saints defense
| Per game | Falcons offense | Saints allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 167.7 | 211.7 |
| Rushing yards | 173.0 | 128.7 |
| Yards per carry | 5.0 | 4.7 |
| Passer rating | 58.2 | 101.2 |
| Touchdowns | 1.7 | 3.3 |
| Third-down conversion | 34.3% | 47.1% |
| Red-zone conversion | 80.0% | 61.5% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.0 | 2.3 |
Saints attack against the Falcons defense
| Per game | Saints offense | Falcons allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 281.3 | 263.0 |
| Rushing yards | 101.3 | 47.7 |
| Yards per carry | 3.8 | 2.8 |
| Passer rating | 99.2 | 88.6 |
| Touchdowns | 3.3 | 2.7 |
| Third-down conversion | 53.2% | 35.7% |
| Red-zone conversion | 81.8% | 50.0% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 3.3 | 1.7 |
Read these as a 3-game sample rather than settled form. Rates this early move a long way on one result.
Atlanta have allowed 143 rushing yards all season at 2.8 a carry, the meanest run defense in the league. New Orleans convert 81.8% in the red zone, and that is the tension.
Falcons vs Saints quarterback matchup
Michael Penix Jr. has played one game and Tyler Shough three, which is why Atlanta’s season passer rating reads worse than their last result.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | Michael Penix Jr. | 18/25, 256 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 101.4 rtg | 18/25, 256 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 101.4 rtg (1 game) |
| Saints | Tyler Shough | 29/42, 255 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT, 106.7 rtg | 91/132, 917 yds, 8 TD, 3 INT, 99.2 rtg (3 games) |
Falcons vs Saints injury report and team news
Michael Penix Jr. returned at quarterback for Atlanta and threw for 256 yards at Green Bay in his first appearance of the season.
James Pearce Jr. is suspended for Atlanta, so the Falcons are without the pass rusher who recorded 10 sacks last season.
Tyler Shough threw four touchdown passes against Las Vegas and has 917 passing yards this season, second only to Bryce Young.
Where Falcons vs Saints is decided
Atlanta have allowed 143 rushing yards in three games at 2.8 a carry, the meanest run defense in the league by a distance. It is the reason a side passing as badly as they have has stayed competitive.
Their own run game has come alive too. Bijan Robinson carried 29 times for 194 yards and two touchdowns at Green Bay, and Atlanta ran for 242 as a team in a 35-14 win that reversed the shape of their season.
New Orleans are the better passing team. Tyler Shough has 917 yards and eight touchdowns at a 99.2 rating, and the Saints convert 81.8% in the red zone. But they have conceded 10 sacks, and Atlanta will be able to reach him.
Players to watch
- Bijan Robinson (ATL, RB): 29 carries for 194 yards and two touchdowns at Green Bay.
- Michael Penix Jr. (ATL, QB): 256 yards and a touchdown in his first appearance of the season.
- Tyler Shough (NO, QB): 29 of 42 for 255 yards and four touchdowns against Las Vegas.
- Chris Olave (NO, WR): Nine catches for 107 yards in Week 3, and 375 receiving yards this season.
How to watch Falcons vs Saints
Kickoff is 8:15 PM ET on Monday, October 5 at the Caesars Superdome, which is 7:15 PM CT and 5:15 PM PT. ESPN has the national broadcast.
| Detail | Falcons vs Saints |
|---|---|
| Date | Monday, October 5, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 PM ET / 7:15 PM CT / 5:15 PM PT |
| Venue | Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA |
| TV | ESPN |
| Live stream | NFL+ / ESPN |
| Week | Week 4, 2026 NFL season |
Falcons vs Saints prediction and score projection
Our Falcons vs Saints prediction is a New Orleans win, 26-23. The Saints are at home with the better quarterback, though Atlanta’s run defense and their form at Green Bay make this the closest call of the round.
The live win probability and the model’s projected margin update on this page through the week.
Every Week 4 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Steelers @ Browns | Browns 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:30 AM | Colts @ Commanders | Commanders 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Cardinals @ Giants | Cardinals 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Cowboys @ Texans | Cowboys 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Packers @ Buccaneers | Packers 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Jaguars @ Bengals | Jaguars 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Rams @ Eagles | Rams 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Patriots @ Bills | Bills 30-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Jets @ Bears | Bears 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Titans @ Ravens | Ravens 27-13 | Read |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Dolphins @ Vikings | Vikings 24-13 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Broncos @ 49ers | 49ers 31-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Chiefs @ Raiders | Chiefs 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Chargers @ Seahawks | Seahawks 27-17 | Read |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Lions @ Panthers | Lions 31-24 | Read |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Falcons @ Saints | Saints 26-23 | You are here |
Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL hub, and Signal rates every game on the NFL picks page.
Falcons vs Saints FAQ
New Orleans, narrowly, at home on Monday night. Both teams are 1-2, and Atlanta arrive off a 35-14 win at Green Bay.
8:15 PM ET on Monday, October 5, at the Caesars Superdome.
No. Pearce is suspended. He recorded 10 sacks for Atlanta last season.
Atlanta won 35-14 at Green Bay. New Orleans lost 35-27 at home to Las Vegas.
21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Signal probabilities and odds approximate at time of writing and subject to change