Our Packers vs Buccaneers prediction pairs the league’s least productive run game with the offensive line that has conceded the most sacks. Squawka Signal’s live read on this game, including where the value sits, updates on this page through the week.
The Green Bay Packers have run for 146 yards in three games at 3.0 a carry, the lowest total in the league. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have conceded 13 sacks, the most in the league. Raymond James Stadium hosts two teams whose problems are structural.
Packers vs Buccaneers: our editor’s props
Two editorial calls to sit alongside the live Signal numbers on this page.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Packers vs Buccaneers: 2026 form so far
One team cannot run and the other cannot protect the passer. The table sets each attack against what the opposite defense has actually allowed.
Packers attack against the Buccaneers defense
| Per game | Packers offense | Buccaneers allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 266.7 | 206.7 |
| Rushing yards | 48.7 | 76.0 |
| Yards per carry | 3.0 | 3.1 |
| Passer rating | 83.5 | 93.4 |
| Touchdowns | 2.0 | 2.3 |
| Third-down conversion | 27.8% | 35.7% |
| Red-zone conversion | 41.7% | 37.5% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.7 | 2.0 |
Buccaneers attack against the Packers defense
| Per game | Buccaneers offense | Packers allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 185.0 | 202.0 |
| Rushing yards | 94.3 | 138.7 |
| Yards per carry | 4.3 | 4.1 |
| Passer rating | 73.4 | 97.2 |
| Touchdowns | 1.7 | 3.7 |
| Third-down conversion | 32.6% | 50.0% |
| Red-zone conversion | 30.0% | 83.3% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 4.3 | 2.3 |
Read these as a 3-game sample rather than settled form. Rates this early move a long way on one result.
Green Bay’s 32 penalties for 276 yards are the most in the league, and they have allowed opponents to convert 83.3% of red-zone trips. Both numbers keep Tampa Bay in this.
Packers vs Buccaneers quarterback matchup
Jordan Love has attempted 124 passes because Green Bay cannot run the ball. Baker Mayfield has been sacked behind a line that has conceded 13.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | Jordan Love | 28/53, 312 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 75.4 rtg | 65/124, 844 yds, 6 TD, 2 INT, 83.5 rtg (3 games) |
| Buccaneers | Baker Mayfield | 17/34, 217 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 67.9 rtg | 61/96, 615 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT, 80.0 rtg (3 games) |
| Jalon Daniels | 0/3, 0 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 0.0 rtg | 0/3, 0 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 0.0 rtg (1 game) |
Packers vs Buccaneers injury report and team news
Josh Jacobs is on the exempt list for Green Bay, so the Packers are without the back who ran for 929 yards last season. Their 146 rushing yards this season follow directly from it.
Micah Parsons remains on the physically unable to perform list for Green Bay after recording 12 sacks last season.
Baker Mayfield took 34 of Tampa Bay’s 37 throws against Minnesota, with rookie Jalon Daniels taking three and throwing an interception.
Where Packers vs Buccaneers is decided
Green Bay have 146 rushing yards in three games. No other team is below 240. Josh Jacobs, who ran for 929 yards last season, is on the exempt list, and the Packers have replaced him with a committee averaging 3.0 a carry.
The consequence is a passing game carrying everything. Jordan Love has thrown 124 times for 800 yards, and against Atlanta he attempted 53 passes in a 35-14 defeat. That is not a game plan so much as an absence of one.
Tampa Bay, though, have conceded 13 sacks and score on 30% of red-zone trips. They have lost all three games, and Green Bay’s front has seven sacks, so the Packers should be able to make that count.
Players to watch
- Jordan Love (GB, QB): 312 yards and two touchdowns from 53 attempts against Atlanta.
- Christian Watson (GB, WR): Seven catches for 96 yards and a score in Week 3, 284 receiving yards this season.
- Baker Mayfield (TB, QB): 217 yards from 34 attempts against Minnesota at a 67.9 rating.
- Emeka Egbuka (TB, WR): Five catches for 62 yards in Week 3, Tampa Bay’s busiest target.
How to watch Packers vs Buccaneers
Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 4 at Raymond James Stadium, which is 12:00 PM CT and 10:00 AM PT. FOX has the regional broadcast.
| Detail | Packers vs Buccaneers |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, October 4, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM CT / 10:00 AM PT |
| Venue | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| TV | FOX |
| Live stream | NFL+ / Fubo |
| Week | Week 4, 2026 NFL season |
Packers vs Buccaneers prediction and score projection
Our Packers vs Buccaneers prediction is a Green Bay win, 23-20. Neither side is convincing and the Packers have been outscored by 35, but Tampa Bay are 0-3 and cannot keep their quarterback upright.
The live win probability and the model’s projected margin update on this page through the week.
Every Week 4 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Steelers @ Browns | Browns 20-17 | Read |
| Sun 9:30 AM | Colts @ Commanders | Commanders 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Cardinals @ Giants | Cardinals 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Cowboys @ Texans | Cowboys 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Packers @ Buccaneers | Packers 23-20 | You are here |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Jaguars @ Bengals | Jaguars 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Rams @ Eagles | Rams 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Patriots @ Bills | Bills 30-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Jets @ Bears | Bears 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Titans @ Ravens | Ravens 27-13 | Read |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Dolphins @ Vikings | Vikings 24-13 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Broncos @ 49ers | 49ers 31-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Chiefs @ Raiders | Chiefs 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Chargers @ Seahawks | Seahawks 27-17 | Read |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Lions @ Panthers | Lions 31-24 | Read |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Falcons @ Saints | Saints 26-23 | Read |
Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL hub, and Signal rates every game on the NFL picks page.
Packers vs Buccaneers FAQ
Green Bay, narrowly, despite playing away. The Packers are 1-2 and Tampa Bay are 0-3.
1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 4, at Raymond James Stadium.
No. Jacobs is on the exempt list. He ran for 929 yards last season, and Green Bay have managed 146 rushing yards in three games without him.
Baker Mayfield, who took 34 of 37 throws against Minnesota. Rookie Jalon Daniels attempted the other three.
21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Signal probabilities and odds approximate at time of writing and subject to change